Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181352 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through the area this morning followed by breezy conditions and below normal temperatures thru Tue night. Milder temps and continued dry conditions to occur thru the mid-week period. Rain chances return Fri thru Sat as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast States Atlantic coast. && .UPDATE...
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Fractured cold front is mostly just offshore at this point, although pieces of it still remain just onshore across northeast SC. NNW winds have taken over across most of the area, with dewpoints dropping quite rapidly, as expected. This will be a pesky feature to keep up with today. Adjusted the hourly dewpoint forecast using a blend of HRRR, ADJLAV, and CONSShort data. That appears to be holding decently steady over the last hour or so. No major changes coming down the track at this time.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is currently pushing into the far inland portions of our CWA, outrunning the trough aloft. Winds will start to come around to the west and then the northwest with its passage. The front will be offshore by the morning, dry air filtering in gradually. Enough moisture should hang on in the column through the day for there to be a mix of clouds and sun through the day. A decent breeze should linger through the day so went a bit milder on highs, low to mid 60s. Similarly went lower on the dewpoints due to decent mixing. Increased fire danger might be possible as aftn RH values dip below 30 percent with gusts up to 20 mph. The upper trough will be passing overhead tonight, a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of it. SE NC could see some brief, light showers late this evening with the passage of this disturbance. NW winds will also increase at this time, gusting around 25-30 mph. Lows will fall into the mid 30s, but with the strong overnight breeze frost formation is unlikely. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CAA will peak early Tue via various thickness schemes, followed by the offshore movement of the 5H trof axis during Tue. NAA followed by WAA by late Tue as 5H heights/1k-5h thicknesses rise. Sfc pg remains tightened Tue thru Wed with breezy conditions resulting, especially during daylight hrs both days. The WAA Wed may push temps above 70 for highs. Otherwise, temps well below normal Tue, rise to at or just above normal Wed thru Wed night. Next dry CFP slated late Wed/Wed nite as flow drives sfc ridging out of Central Canada to the Carolinas. At this point, winds stay active enough to keep temps aoa 40 along with no frost issues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Thu thru Thu night, flow aloft basically NW that backs to westerly. Under CAA initially that becomes neutral. Temps to run at or slightly below normal. Skies generally cloud free initially that will see high level moisture late Thu night from the south. Southern stream mid-level s/w trof to gain steam in the Gulf of Mexico Fri. GFS indicates a full Gale/Storm off the Carolina Coasts Fri night into Sat as the sfc low and mid-level s/w trof lift NE-ward. The European on the other hand keeps it benign early in the weekend, then closes/cutoffs the upper low off the Carolina Coast late in the weekend with sfc Gale/Storm possible. Overall, will have rain chances capped around 50% later Fri thru Sat night with some low chance pops mainly at or off the coasts Sun/Sun night. Have indicated mainly stratiform rains Fri into Fri night with isolated thunder at and off the coasts late Fri night into Sat as the low passes by, moving along an offshore/coastal waters coastal trof that does not get pulled inland but comes close to the immediate coast. Lot of questions remain with this system especially with various model continuity. Temps Fri thru Sun to remain at or below normal due to clouds and pcpn. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. NW winds near 10 kts will gradually become more westerly through today. A disturbance moving over the area this evening into tonight will bring gusty NW winds near 20-25 kts. Low chances for showers at KILM at the same time but low confidence so will let the next put them in if confidence is higher. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NW winds 10-15 kts will decrease to near 10 kts this afternoon becoming SW once more ahead of another disturbance. As this disturbance approaches through the evening into the night, winds will reach SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming NW once more around midnight. Seas near 2 ft will increase to 2-4 ft tonight with a strong NW wind wave. Tuesday through Friday night...SCA thresholds will be ongoing early Tue before temporarily dropping below during Tue as the sfc pg relaxes slightly and a change from CAA to NAA occurs. The sfc pg tightens Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next cold front. With WAA, am suspect that SW-WSW winds may eclipse SCA thresholds even when combined with the re-tightening of the sfc pg. Nevertheless, potential is there to highlight the SCA possibility. Dry CFP Wed night, followed by CAA and the sfc pg relaxing during Thu. Look for wind shift to the N-NE Thu, becoming E thruout with increasing speeds Fri. Coastal trof to develop just offshore Fri, with E winds 15 to 20 kt within coastal waters, and SE at SCA thresholds on the other side of the trof. Will see SCA thresholds eclipsed by seas Fri/Fri night. The seas will have a decent fetch for which to build upon and as a result, will observe the hier seas just offshore bleed into the coastal waters Fri/Fri night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...LEW MARINE...DCH/LEW

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