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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 251817
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
217 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2:15 PM SATURDAY...DRY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN
THE MID 70S MOST PLACES...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AN MCS WELL
UPSTREAM MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. WOULD GO A BIT LOWER ON TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST BEING THE EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. NORTH-NORTHWEST  WINDS AOB
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY AFTER THE TAF ISSUANCE TIME BACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS EVENING WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING
GENERALLY NORTH AOB 6 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:15 PM SATURDAY...ALREADY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SEAS ARE NOW IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE BUT WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 2 FT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RGZ