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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 180549
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
149 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A DRYING TREND THE WILL BEGIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE CWA.  HAVE CONTINUED CHC TO LIKELY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING AND UPSTREAM ACTIVITY THOUGH THUNDER POTENTIAL
IS DECREASING WITH TIME AS NOTED IN LIGHTNING DATA.  TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK GOOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN STEERING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PEAK ABOVE
2 INCHES AT TIMES SO THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
WILL BE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AS WELL
AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUPPORTING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH NO SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA COULD AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING
TEMPS BACK A BIT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LEADING UP TO ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH. THIS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WILL MOVE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND AND FURTHER OFF SHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEAST ON THURS TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE WIND
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AND THEREFORE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IT WILL HAVE ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND THEREFORE MAY
KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST OVER COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO
LESS THAN AN INCH BY FRI AS THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH AND MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH WHERE BOUNDARY REMAINS. PCP
WATER VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.9 INCHES. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK UP INTO OUR LOCAL CWA MAINLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHC OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART...THE MOISTURE
PROFILES DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE
MAY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA FILTERING OUT THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850 TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
RIGHT AROUND 15 C WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE UP ON SATURDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY AFFECT THE TEMPS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL EXPECT MAX TEMPS EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S AND CLOSER TO
90 INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS AND AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA HAS DIMINISHED TONIGHT
THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THEY ARE MOST PROBABLE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE HOURS.  THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
THIS EVENING OVER THE INLAND TERMS HAVE SATURATED THE SFC LAYER...
AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR LIKELY AT KFLO AND KLBT. NEAR
SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG...BUT TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/T-STORMS TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE CAROLINAS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
IS SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS AFTER 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...WINDS ARE INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS VIA BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS EXPECTED AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AT 952MB. A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST
WELL NOTING THAT SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE HIGHER RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 3-4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TAP TO PASS ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT THUS NO PLAN TO RAISE AN ADVISORY
THIS EARLY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
FIGHT TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT STIFF NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND FRONT ON THURS TO WEAKEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER BERMUDA. WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS THURS IN NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS. NEAR SHORE
SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL BE BLOCKED FROM NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WILL BE LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FT. AS WINDS VEER AROUND AND
LIGHTEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FT
MOST WATERS AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS 10 KTS OR SO CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/31