Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220045 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 841 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT MOVING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER HAS SUBSIDED THANKS TO LOSS OF HEATING...AND THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S SEVERE WEATHER IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS SETTLING SOUTH AND BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO ONLY A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTS...HIGH-RES HRRR AND NSSL WRF WANT TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT AS FORCING FROM A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH IT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WV IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM GSO AND MHX LATER THIS EVENING TO CONFIRM...BUT EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER BEING CLEAR THIS EVENING. WINDS EARLY WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND A COOL SURGE DEVELOPS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RISE TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE...WHICH W && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST REGION...COOLER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO A RANGE OF 0.5 TO 1 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL STAY TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...A RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES...AND A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. ALOFT A RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON THROUGH ALMOST THURSDAY SO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 90 BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED EARLY THIS EVENING S OF KMYR TO JUST S-SW OF KFLO. LINGERING MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR KILM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MVFR CIG THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE VFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND AT KFLO. DESPITE GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST SOILS AT KLBT AND KILM NO FOG IS EXPECTED AS N WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED. AFTER 12Z EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12K AS N-NE WINDS PREVAIL. IN THE AFTERNOON SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NE-E. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SE AND WILL ONLY MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NW AND THEN NORTH...AND THEN INCREASE AS A SURGE DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THIS SURGE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BECAUSE...WHILE CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW ANY CAUTIONARY STATEMENT CRITERIA...THESE SURGES TEND TO CREATE POOR MARINE CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SCEC CONDITIONS LATER. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-4 FT...POSSIBLY 5 FT AT TIMES. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY THE OF END FRIDAY AND REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE DAY FROM THE NORTH AND WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 4 FEET EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL SETTLE OUT AT 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS BY TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...MRR

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