Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261628 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1128 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...TEMPS STARTED OUT OVER 70 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND IN THE 50S IN THE COOLER GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END. BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALIGNED ALONG THIS SHARP BOUNDARY. WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING ON THE BACK END WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT PCP THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY PLENTY OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK END. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. THE BACK END OF THE CLOUDS WAS JUST ENTERING THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN AND SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FROM W-SW TO E-NE. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS DROPPED A GOOD 20 DEGREES IN JUST OVER AN HOUR AFTER THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW 50S EAST THIS MORNING MAY DROP MORE DEGREES BEFORE STABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL TODAY...MORE LIKE 40S IN MOST PLACES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS APPROACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ALOFT UP OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT BY THE WKND. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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