Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311724 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 124 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND STALLS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS YET TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA BUT ELEMENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY MORE. WINDS ARE NOW SOUTHEAST AT THE BEACHES WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL WORK ON THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD GET THINGS CRANKING. GOOD COVERAGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR THIS. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKING ON THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BASICALLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HARD TO PICK OUT AT TIMES. DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL MASK THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GENERATES THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST ALL WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SAT...BEFORE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL NORTHWEST PUSH IS ABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FOR SAT COMPARED TO SUN...THOUGH BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...ONE SAT AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ON SUN. THE PROBLEM FOR BOTH WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SUCH FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING MON INTO TUE WILL BRIEFLY MAKE WAY AS 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG THE COAST...SLOWLY DISSIPATES. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE COAST AND PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WARRANTS CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE COAST. RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST TUE INTO WED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS VALLEY WED ERODES RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IS REPLACED BY TROUGHING WED NIGHT INTO THU. DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH HEATING AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. ALTHOUGH HARD TO TIME 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ON THU. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TO END THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW POINTS WAS E OF A KLBT/KFLO LINE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND MOVING OFFSHORE. TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 17-19Z INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT. NW WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER CONVECTION TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST TO NEAR KFLO/KLBT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND STABILIZATION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING TO NO WORSE THAN MVFR LEVELS. OVERNIGHT IF CLOUDS SCATTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS IFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY..
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE NOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OF SOUTHWEST TO REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK INLAND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. DURING THE DAY...AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. AT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SAT WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT ON SUN. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FRONT STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MON CONTINUE ON TUE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGH NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT POSSIBLE NEAR 20 NM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...PROBABILITY IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

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