Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 192353 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 752 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD...WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT BY MID OCTOBER STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT MID WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS LIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...OTHERWISE THE SKY IS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER. THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COOL WILL TEMPS GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S. WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN SE-S FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NNE WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15 KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...XXXI LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.