Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251641 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT RIGHT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY OFF SHORE BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEPER FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. AS LOW PROGRESSES UP THE COAST WILL SEE A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE W-SW ZONES BY MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING IN W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING TONIGHT BUT AS LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END OF LOW TOWARD MORNING. MAY SEE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE DAY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...CONVERGENT BAND OF RAIN/CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SPREAD TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER IN THE PRECIP...LIKELY REACHING IFR AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE NOON. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ROTTEN AVIATION CONDITIONS...LIFR AT TIMES. WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS LATE TUE/EARLY WED...IN ADDITION TO HEAVIER PCPN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. VFR LATE WED THROUGH SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST RIDING UP JUST JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 4 AM WED MORNING. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL MARINE...

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