Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050802 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 302 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY OFF THE IMMEDIATE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OF OUR LATITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR W WAS PIVOTING TO THE NE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY UP AS SUBSIDENCE DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN STRENGTHENS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA THAT WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEEING ANY RAIN DROPS AFTER DAWN WILL BE THE CAPE FEAR AREA. A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR AS IT ACCELERATES THE COASTAL LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...N WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COMMON. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE THIS MORNING AND SOME LOCATIONS...W OF INTERSTATE 95...HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME GLIMPSES OF THE SUN AT SUNRISE. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE AFTERNOON LOOKS SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP...EVEN AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOST LOCATIONS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS IF IT WERE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK EARLY ON. TEMPS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GAIN AN UPWARD FOOTING AS TEMPS AT 850 MB DROP TO MINUS 3-4 DEG C. THE CHILLY AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS MINUS 5 DEG C INLAND. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST RECENTERS TO THE NE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE WINDS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO GO ALMOST COMPLETELY CALM FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...BUT THE COOLEST INLAND SPOTS COULD DROP TO THE MID 20S BY DAYBREAK SAT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY NICE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW EVIDENT VIA IR SATELLITE OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ENDING MIDDAY SUNDAY. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING ALL LIQUID. THE GFS MAY HAVE COOLED BY A DEGREE OR SO BUT TOP DOWN PROCEDURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH ALL RAIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT IF GUIDANCE COOLS BY A DEGREE OR TWO MORE SNOW COULD BE INTRODUCED. LUMBERTON IS MOST INTERESTING WITH BOTH THE MAV AND MET SHOWING 31 DEGREES FOR A LOW. WE HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THESE NUMBERS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH THE CLEARING SUNDAY AND RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEARING AND COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AND COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INITIAL ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS IS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A REINFORCING SHOT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE MORE OPTIMISTIC NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. WE CONTINUE TO GO MUCH BELOW THIS BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IT SEEMS AS THE WINTER SEASON GETS LONG IN THE TOOTH WITH LONGER DAYS AND HIGHER SUN ANGLES THE MEX NUMBERS TREND MORE REALISTIC. SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE PERHAPS PLAYING A ROLE IN THESE NUMBERS AS WELL. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS JUST MOVING THROUGH THE ILM TERMINAL AND HAD ALREADY CLEARED THE REMAINING TERMINALS EARLIER THIS EVE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. RESIDUAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...FROM S AND W TO N AND E DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED BY MORNING THROUGHOUT. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW AND THIS WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AS STRONG MIXING ENSUES. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH MVFR. VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS VALID TIL 9 PM TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO AROUND 30 KT WILL BRIEFLY GUST UP TO GALE FORCE BETWEEN 12-15Z. WIND SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE 15 TO AROUND 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW TO NNW WHEN THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST...VEERING TO N THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT WITH UP TO 10 FT AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FT THIS EVE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT AN INCREASE INTO 20-25 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND THE GRADIENT INCREASES. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SEAS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER SEAS IN A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH 10-15 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF A RUGGED DAY FOR MARINERS WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AND MAYBE A LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEAS WILL BE JUST A TAD UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY BUT JUMP BACK UP TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OFFSHORE VIA THE FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD/MAC

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