Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KILM 211728
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1220 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the week. A trough
of low pressure may bring spotty showers Wednesday and Thursday.
Near record highs are possible Friday. A cold front, approaching
from the west, will bring a chance for showers Friday into
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will build into the area
Saturday night into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...High clouds were filtering the late morning
sunshine. Thicker clouds are expected to develop as onshore
flow allows ocean stratocumulus to rotate inland later today and
this eve. Still expecting some late night fog to develop.
Onshore flow should keep the beaches from rising above the mid
and upper 60s. As you progress inland, highs will be in the
lower 70s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s.
High pressure centered across New England and the northeastern
states will migrate south through tonight.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Retaining slight chance pops for much of
Wednesday and Thursday as an upper low and its developing
surface reflection swing out of the Gulf of Mexico and then
across Florida and the Bahamas. A generally amorphous pattern
with lack of any strong triggers and very dry mid-levels means
QPF will be kept on the minimal side. Temperatures will continue
to run unseasonably mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the
50s for both days.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Cutoff low exiting the Florida coast on
Friday will leave a surface low which rides up just off the southeast
coast through Sat morning. Should pull off a very warm day on
Friday with some clouds mixing with the sun and temps reaching
well into the 70s to near 80. A trough will extend up from this
low maintaining a more easterly flow at the sfc and as the low
approaches from the south in our off shore waters Fri night into
Sat, the winds will be more northeasterly. There will be a
general warm and moist return flow around Atlantic ridge
through the low levels, but this more easterly on shore flow at
the sfc will produce slightly cooler air flow on Sat, as well as
some clouds and shwrs possible. The sfc low will reach Hatteras
on Sat morning just about the same time a cold front will be
approaching from the west. The winds may veer around to the SW
soon enough before the front on Saturday to kick temps near 80
once again. The best upper level support will remain to our
north but expect some showers possible associated with this cold
front through Sat aftn.
Once the cold front moves off shore Saturday evening, high
pressure will build in with a deeper W-NW flow of cooler and
drier air. Expect a dip in 850 temps from near 12c on Sat, down
below 0c Sat night through Sunday. Therefore our unseasonably
warm temps near 80 on Fri and into the mid 70s on Saturday will
not make it past 60 on Sunday. The high temp on Sunday will be
more similar to the previous night`s low temps. Dewpoint temps
will drop a good 20 degrees leaving a very dry air mass for Sun
into Mon. Clouds over the area Fri night into Saturday will
dissipate leaving plenty of sunshine for Sunday and Monday. With
high pressure moving closer overhead Sun night, should see
decent radiational cooling bringing temps down into the 30s
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 18Z...Widespread cirrus ceilings will continue through the TAF
period ahead of the slow moving Gulf system. Winds will become
lighter overnight and there may be fairly good coverage of MVFR fog
according to model guidance. The lower flight categories depicted by
the GFS at LBT seems far too pessimistic especially in light of the
continued cirrus cloud deck. VFR soon after sunrise tomorrow.
Extended Outlook...Isolated showers late Wednesday through
Thursday. Showers possible Saturday with a cold front. Otherwise
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...NE to ENE winds will veer to E and ESE
tonight as the center of high pressure across New England and
the northeastern states migrates south. Wind speeds will be up
to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with some 4 ft seas
across portions of the outer waters today.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure over the waters will keep
winds in the 10 kt range for Wednesday and Thursday. However,
Longwave swell generated by a developing low over the Bahamas
will bring increasingly high combined sea heights, with seas
gradually building to 3 to 5 ft Thursday night.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Weak sfc low will move up the southeast
coast Fri into Sat. This will produce a more easterly flow and
possibly NE as the low reaches north toward Cape Fear by Sat
morning. The winds should remain less than 15 kts over most of
the waters but may reach slightly higher Fri aftn in the outer
waters. As this low tracks off toward Hatteras on Sat, a cold
front will approach from the west. Winds will back to the W-SW
briefly ahead of the front Sat aftn before shifting to the NW
through Sat night and increasing up around 20 kts. The onshore
push through Fri will build seas up to 3 to 5 ft in the aftn and
up to 4 to 6 ft Fri night. Will most likely need some type of
precautionary or SCA headlines late Fri into early Sat.