Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031441 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1041 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CREATING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE NEW 12 UTC NAM IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INLAND THROUGH DAY AND THE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT LARGE BATCH PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN MOVING UP THE COAST AND MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER 06 UTC AND SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST WITH THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE EXTREME WEST. OTHERWISE CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF THE TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL. REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY- AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WKND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WKND WITH MID-TO-UPR 80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO S OF KILM. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT KILM. WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE TERMINALS AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG IT...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR FOR THE MOST PART THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CIGS/POSSIBLY TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT TO REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCTS CHANCE IS LOW BUT BEST CONFIDENCE AT KCRE/KMYR. PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...THE WINDS HAVE RELAXED AND THE SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED UP THE COAST AND AWAY FROM THE COASTA WATERS. THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2- 4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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