Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261930 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DRY OUT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COOL AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH PAST 50 UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL HOLD RIGHT AROUND 50 AS CAA OFFSETS ANY SUNSHINE. MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW COLUMN DRYING OUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT LINGERING THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTAL SKI CLEARING. PCP WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST THIS MORNING WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY THIS EVENING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING 850 TEMPS FROM CLOSE TO 15C IN WARM AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING DOWN CLOSE TO 0C BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS HOLDING RIGHT AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH REACHING DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER VA/NC BORDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PCP WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME MOISTURE WITH SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS. SOUNDING SHOW AN ALMOST SATURATED LAYER FORMING BETWEEN 6 AND 9K FT JUST AROUND DAYBREAK. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN BELOW 40 MOST PLACES BY EARLY MORNING WITH COLDEST READINGS INLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME FORM OF A STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD HELP TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. A STRATOCU CEILING MAY FORM OVER OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE NEAR SHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 2 TO 4 FT WHILE OUTER WATERS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AS OFF SHORE FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT. WIND WILL BACK FROM NW-W TODAY TO WSW THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW CROSSING THE HATTERAS COAST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT BY THE WKND. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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