Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191010 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 610 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PRESS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS AND SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE ALL IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STRONGEST AS ONE APPROACHES THE COAST...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER OUR SC COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE COAST SAT WHILE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES. SURFACE LOW WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. THIS LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SO INITIALLY IT WILL NOT BE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST IT MAY ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. NHC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT EVEN IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS INTO A FULL BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM IT WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AND STEERING FLOW WOULD KEEP IT OFF THE COAST. ULTIMATE PATH OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...WITH HOW CLOSE IT PASSES OFF THE COAST THE MAIN CONCERN. DO NOT THINK ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE REALIZED BUT IT COULD MAKE FOR A CLOUDY/SOGGY SAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST ARE A POSSIBILITY. INLAND THERE WILL BE LESS OF A PRECIP THREAT THOUGH ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND THE PINCH GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY LOW CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP ALONG THE COAST SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AND DRY INLAND. NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. EXITING SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SUN...DRYING THE REGION OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP ABOUT AN INCH SAT INTO SUN...FALLING FROM AROUND 1.7 TO AROUND 0.7. THE RESULT WILL BE BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO SUN NIGHT THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY FREE OF CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON. WHERE PREVIOUS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT AND QPF. AT THIS POINT EVEN WITH IDEAL TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING THINK CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND HAVE NO PLANS TO CHANGE INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP. FRONT ENDS UP STALLED OFF THE COAST TUE WITH MODIFIED HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TRANSITIONS TO PROGRESSIVE TUE INTO WED AS THE 5H TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA LIFTS NORTHEAST. MOISTURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT MAY LEAD TO COASTAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE DAY. SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK DIVERGE WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON WED AS REINFORCING HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS WOULD KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OTHER SOLUTION INVOLVES A COASTAL TROUGH WITH A WEAKER REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY PLAN MINIMAL CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR SHOWS SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW NO THREAT TO ANY TAF SITES. COULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE 2-3KFT MARINE STRATOCU MAY CLIP KCRE/KMYR WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO DEVELOP INLAND AROUND AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE TOO STRONG FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS TONIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRI AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMS...WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY HELP TO SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NORTHEAST AOB 10 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SAT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON SUN AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. VFR ON MON/TUE. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:15 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS AND SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN RESPONSE...TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS AS RESULT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST SAT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST FL COAST AND STARTS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND PATH THE LOW TAKES. WHILE IT COULD ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT LIFTS NORTH CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS. PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE PASSING LOW WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW EXITS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SUN. GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT SUN AND UNDER 10 KT SUN NIGHT. 3 TO 5 FT SEAS SAT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE SAT SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS MON WILL BECOME OFFSHORE MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT MON INTO TUE WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE SURGE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR MARINE...REK/III

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