Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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203 FXUS62 KILM 261918 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to bring sunshine and warmth through Friday. Clouds and rain chances will increase over the weekend as low pressure develops in the Bahamas and very slowly approaches. This system may take until Tuesday to clear out of the Carolinas brining a prolonged period of unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM Thursday...An extensive cu field has developed this afternoon with thickest coverage along and near the sea breeze front over the coastal counties. Convective development beyond this point is being hampered by very dry air aloft. Still expecting a dry and warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic and eastern Carolinas will slowly retreat to the east and north as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. Model guidance and ensembles are in good accord with this scenario. This will keep up a mild southerly flow into the nighttime hours with winds becoming light and variable after midnight. A consensus of guidance has temperatures bottoming out in the lower to mid-60s. Skies will become mainly clear overnight as diurnal cu fades with the sunset. Light winds, clearing skies and elevated dewpoints will allow for fog development of patchy to areal extent in coverage. Expect greatest fog development over our coastal counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM Thursday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the eastern Carolinas at the beginning of the period but will slowly retreat to the north and east as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. As mentioned in the Near Term discussion above, model guidance and ensembles are in good accord with this scenario. Model soundings do not move deep layer moisture in until around daybreak on Saturday morning, so until then we can expect fair skies, dry weather and warm temperatures. Although there is significant forecast uncertainty regarding development of this system, it looks likely that deep layer moisture will advect in beginning on Saturday. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along the coast, beginning on Saturday morning, with chances increasing through the remainder of the period. It is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be a concern through the short term as guidance continues to show that this feature will be weakly organized and slow to develop.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Thursday... Well, there are some facets of the extended that are becoming a bit clearer and other things not so much. The development and track of the Bahamas system is becoming better agreed upon between various models. Most seem to take it into the South Carolina coast some time (late, probably) Sunday. The GFS and EC also agree that from there the system will grind to nearly a halt with just a slow NE drift up the coast on a slow inland track. Only the Canadian has a quicker movement. The slower solution preferred following coordination call with NHC/WPC. So while this will no doubt be refined in the future (especially if flights into the system begin tomorrow) the more uncertain points remain the strength of the system and the envelope of moisture. Should a long duration of effects from this system pan out they will likely be Sunday through Tuesday. Potential heavy rain probably the greatest threat at this point but even that may not be overly high. Secondary effects likely beach related in the form of rip currents. And then whenever the center of the storm moves by a tornado threat certainly seems likely to develop. With the current forecast the rain and tornado threat appear slated for Monday. With the slow exit of the system improvement will be gradual Tuesday into Wednesday as we transition to a sunnier and warmer pattern with little appreciable rain chances.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...Essentially a persistence forecast with VFR conditions expected through the period. Diurnal ceilings have once again developed this afternoon but should fade quickly with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Some concern about an hour or two of MVFR tomorrow morning inland but it should be fleeting. Extended Outlook...MVFR possible in scattered to numerous showers, isolated TSTMS this weekend. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Thursday...A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will slowly retreat to the east and north as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. This will keep up a southerly flow of 10 to 15 kts through the nighttime hours. Seas will remain right around 2 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM Thursday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over the western Atlantic will extend over the waters at the beginning of the period but will slowly retreat to the north and east as a developing tropical or sub-tropical low over the Bahamas drifts slowly to the NW with little change in intensity. This will bring increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with gradually increasing winds and seas, beginning early on Saturday after a day of mild wind and sea conditions on Friday. At this point it is unlikely that winds associated with this system will be strong enough to warrant any advisories or warnings for the short term as guidance still shows a weakly organized and slowly developing system at that time. For now expecting maximum winds of 15 to 20 kts on Saturday night, with seas building to 3 to 5 ft. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday... Onshore flow through the entire long term period now appearing likely as the low slated to develop over the Bahamas enters the area and just about stalls. Swells could push waves to near SCEC thresholds but as the system is progged to remain quite weak that`s likely about it. This also means that wind remains quite light through the period though the track of the system is uncertain and this translates to uncertainty with regards to direction.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...shk

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