Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 231722
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1222 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
An upper low over the area today, will move northeast to off
the DELMARVA Coast early Tuesday, and off Cape Cod by Tuesday
evening. High pressure from the south will ridge across the
area Tuesday thru Wednesday with temperatures rebounding above
normal. A cold front will push across early Thursday followed
by cool high pressure late in the week, becoming even colder
during this weekend with daily temperatures dropping to below
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1223 AM Monday...Reduce POP values slightly in the
afternoon to no more than scattered, and removed TSTM mention.
An isolated strike would not be a shock but coverage if any
will remain scant. The previous forecast discussion follows.
Batch of showers and light rain over NE SC will rotate NE-N
over the forecast area today. With diurnal heating and
exceptional lapse rates, we expect embedded showers to emerge
within this cluster of activity. Sufficient moisture and updraft
strength could spark a cloud to ground lightning clap and
possibly small pieces of hail. No other significant hazards
though and the SPC maintains a general thunder category across
our area today. A few showers will linger over SE NC into
evening with a gradual wind-down of coverage into pre-dawn of
Tuesday. The evaporative cooling associated with the showers
will bring temperatures down in the afternoon over SE NC.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Monday...The ILM CWA will remain under
cyclonic flow during Tue associated with the Stacked Low
moving from off the DELMARVA Coast Tue morning to Cape Cod by
Tue evening. Models are in decent agreement late Tue thru Wed
with a low amplitude mid level and sfc ridging extending north
across the FA from Florida and the Bahamas. The atm column dries
out nicely by the start of this period and continues into Wed
evening. Thus, sky conditions will be conducive to Mostly Sunny
and clear nights. The exception will be for late Wed night when
a cold front approaches from the west. Have included an increase
in clouds with low chance POPs for light showers during the
pre-dawn hrs, mainly west of the I-95 corridor. For temps,
stayed with a Mos Guidance Consensus.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Previous forecast used...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Upper level ridge axis moves offshore
on Wednesday yielding deep layer SW to WSW flow. Expecting a
mostly sunny and unseasonably warm afternoon. Cold front comes
through late Wednesday night driven by very low amplitude and
confluent upper system keeping rain chances minimal. Cold air
advection Thursday is weak initially allowing for highs in the
low to mid 60s early before temperatures possibly start a non-
diurnal decline. The remainder of the period will bring cool and
dry advection. The southern branch of the upper jet splits off
and gets hung up as a positively tilted trough over the SWrn
U.S. The northern branch will end up a broad and positively
tilted trough over the Eastern U.S. Daytime highs will be stuck
below climatology in the cold advection regime whereas breezy
well-mixed nights will be seasonably cool.
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...Deep moisture has exited, however the strong upper low
still needs to come through this afternoon. There will be decent
solar insolation, however given the sun angle, do not expect too
much CAPE this afternoon, but enough to kick off some fairly
vigorous showers around max heating. Given the cold air aloft,
expect gusty winds with the showers. Most of the activity will end
by late afternoon with VFR conditions expected tonight.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A dry CFP slated for
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 AM Monday...SCA for all waters thru Tue afternoon.
Elevated winds and seas expected this period. Exception is when
the center of the stacked low moves across the area during
today. The sfc pg will relax enough for SW winds to temporarily
drop below SCA thresholds. By late this aftn and early this
evening, the stacked low will finally lift NE of the area
allowing the passage of a sfc cold front. The sfc pg will re-
tighten and result in WNW to NW winds increasing back to SCA
thresholds, and continuing into the early Tue morning hrs.
Significant seas will continue elevated and be dominated by wind
driven waves at 4 to 7 second periods. Seas initially at 5 to 9
ft may temporary drop a few ft later today but then re-
stabilize in the 4 to 8 ft range tonight as gusty WNW to NW
winds take over. Scattered showers to occur later today.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Cyclonic flow to continue thru Tue as the
stacked low lifts further NE reaching Cape Cod by sunset Tue,
much further away from the ILM Waters. Looking at a sfc pressure
pattern and relaxing sfc pg with diminishing NW to W winds
likely below SCA levels by or during the aftn. Weak ridging to
extend northward from Florida and the Bahamas Tue night thru
Wed, resulting in winds backing to the W to SW around 15 kt.
Wed night, an approaching cold front from the west will result
in the sfc pg tightening and SW winds back up to 15 to 20 kt.
Significant seas will peak at the start of this period. An
offshore wind trajectory Tue into Tue night will help subside
the seas except for the waters from Cape Fear to Little River
Inlet where a Westerly wind direction will have a longer fetch
to produce slightly hier seas than surrounding zones. Seas will
subside to 2 to 4 ft Tue night and hold in that general range
thru Wed. Seas will begin to build Wed night ahead of an
approaching cold front with increasing SW wind driven waves.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Previous forecast used...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Coast-parallel southwesterly flow on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Though the winds will increase
to the 15 to 20kt range any headline or advisory-worthy seas
will remain outside of the 20nm forecast zone. With the approach
of the boundary Wed night into Thursday we may add some
gustiness and possibly introduce some 5 ft waves. A sharp late
morning veer to NW Thursday will give way to abating wind
speeds. Wave faces will steepen and a cautionary headline may be
appropriate for a narrow span of time. A broad and weakening
band of NW flow will be found across the eastern U.S on Friday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-