Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041736 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 136 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT MAY SLOW AS SEA BREEZE HOLDS IT UP WITH ON SHORE FLOW MAINLY OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY TSTMS BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ONE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH THIS AFTN. DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING IN THE MID 50S WEST OF I95 AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE W-SW WHILE COASTAL SITES SHOW 60S STILL. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING HAS MAINLY MOVED OFF SHORE LEAVING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING NE CLOSE TO THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CENTER REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. THIS DEEP COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SHALLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. BREAKING CLOUDS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN SFC HEATING BY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS INTO DAYBREAK IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET-UP AS COLD-CORE UPPER LOW DIPS OVER THE AREA IN PEAK HEATING THURSDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES UNFOLDING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE CHILLINESS ALOFT. SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD BETWEEN SHOWERS AND OFTEN CALLED RAINBOW WEATHER WHEN THE SUN ANGLE FALLS BELOW 40 DEGREES OFF THE HORIZON. A COOL PERIOD AS WELL WITH LOWS DEEP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S IN SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY AS THE COLD POOL LIFTS N AND DRYING SETS IT FROM THE NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST...ANTICIPATE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL AND FOR A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS TO WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OR REMAIN JUST NORTH AS IT STALLS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO OVER ONE INCH WITH SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS RIDGING CONTINUES. EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WRAP UP THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS BUILT EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...HOWEVER A THIN RIBBON OF BETTER MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AROUND WILMINGTON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ILM AIRPORT. LESSER CHANCES EXIST OF A POP-UP SHOWER NEAR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY. FARTHER INLAND ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THEY ARE LIMITED IN DEPTH AND POSE NO POTENTIAL FOR DEEP VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ASIDE FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 6000-9000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIN RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST COULD PRODUCE SHALLOW FOG PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WILMINGTON (ILM) AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH (CRE) AIRPORTS. COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY ON WNW WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1130 AM WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN SHIFTING TO W-WNW LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO SEA. NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT FAR AWAY FROM CAUTION CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AND 5 FT SEAS OUTER PORTION. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL POSE A SLIGHT TREAT OF 40 KT WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE WINDS THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SEAS INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 35 KT THU AND FRI TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE WATERS...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT ON SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...TRA

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