Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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339 FXUS62 KILM 280610 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase as an upper level disturbance moves through ahead of a cold front on Tuesday. The cold front will move through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. Warmer and more humid air will return on Friday with increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front which will move off shore early Saturday. The weekend into early next week should be dry with an increasing chance of showers again next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 PM Monday...Have followed closely to the HRRR model for pcpn this evening which pretty much has it dissipating by now in conjunction with what the latest KLTX 88D is displaying attm. However, both the RAP and HRRR are somewhat in unison in re-developing pcpn just southwest of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn hrs and pushes northeast and affects the SW thru W portions of the ILM CWA toward daybreak Tue. Have re-vamped POPs to low chance in these areas. Have continued the increase in pops for showers and tstms during Tue morning ahead of the approaching dynamics aloft. The instability avbl for thunder will be borderline but given time of day and marginal being advertised by SPC for the ILM NC CWA, have kept thunder included thruout the FA. Tonights lows in the 50s to near 60 needed very little tweaking. Although the official surf zone forecast season has not started yet. It bares to mention that local beaches will see some increase to rip current activity during Tuesday. This a result of a healthy SE ground swell affecting the local waters and increasing the surf. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Mid level ridging moving slowly across the Tennessee Valley will be the main player through the short term period. This will allow high pressure to migrate from the Great Lakes region into a cold air damming scenario by early Thursday. With a cold front moving offshore early in the period, pops will not be an issue through the period. Expect mostly sunny skies Wednesday with some low level cloudiness developing in with the wedge early Thursday. Expect another warm day Wednesday with highs possibly reaching and eclipsing 80 degrees before the cool down Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern Carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support will pass by to our N. Still expect a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the NW, but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Carolinas as it lifts NE from the Gulf Coast states into the southern Great Lakes region and brings a surge of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid 70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions will last until around daybreak as upper disturbance reaches the area. Expect mainly MVFR SHRA but an increasingly unstable air mass will produce isolated IFR TSTMS mainly from 13Z thru 21Z with coastal terminals mainly after 15Z. Winds will veer slowly through the day but may see a slight backing along coastal terminals in the afternoon due to sea breeze. Generally looking at SSW to SW winds 5 kt or less overnight and picking back up to SW 10-15 kt during daylight Tue. A cold front will lag behind the convection and will likely push thru late Tue night into early Wed. Kept fog out of the forecast as winds remain up overnight with plenty of clouds. Extended outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR conditions possible from fog Wed morning. MVFR/IFR conditions due to scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri/Fri night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 815 PM Monday...Looking at SSE to SSW winds around 10 kt for the overnight period. Ridging from the offshore high will drop south of the area...allowing winds to become more SW during Tue. The sfc pg will tighten-some during Tue with wind speeds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Significant seas will generally run 3 to 4 ft tonight and 3 to 5 ft during Tue. A well established SE ground swell at 10 to 11 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum tonight thru Tue. Even with an increase of wind driven waves during Tue, the SE ground swell will remain the dominant input to the significant seas. Both WaveWatch3 and local SWAN highlight this ground swell. The swell is coming from a rather deep low pressure system well offshore from the SE U.S. Coast that is moving northeast, further away from the U.S. mainland. Boaters navigating to and from area inlets on Tue could encounter rough wave conditions especially during an outgoing tide combined with the incoming 10+ second period swell. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect changeable winds through the period as initially a southwest flow of around 15 knots will be in place. A cold front will quickly move across the waters by 12z Wednesday with a weak west to northwest flow. This modest flow will be in place for about six hours or so before a surge from the northeast commences. This surge will last through the remainder of the period with winds from the northeast on the lower end of a 15-20 knot range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and late in the period with 2-4 feet in between. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory may be required for all waters Fri and Fri night. Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during Sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to SW Fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft Fri/Fri night before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...RGZ

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