Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 252326 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 726 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area early Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. Little to no rainfall is forecast for at least the next seven days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM Tuesday...Surface high pressure centered over Ontario is ridging southward across the Great Lakes and into the Carolinas. IR satellite loops shows high clouds across the southern Appalachians will slip east-southeastward toward the area in the next couple of hours, but they`re likely thin enough to not interfere with radiational cooling. Surface winds should drop to 0-5 mph inland from the beaches, and we should still see lows in the 40-45 range inland, with upper 40s to lower 50s near the coast. The forecast is in great shape this evening and no significant changes are needed. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will migrate off the Mid Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs leaving the Carolinas on the southern periphery, in an on shore flow through most of Wed into early Thurs. The winds will be veering around from NE to E through Wed and then SE to S through Thurs as a cold front approaches from the NW. This will increase sfc dewpoints a good 15 degrees through the period. GFS shows shortwave tracking through by late Thurs with greatest chc of pcp at that time. Have included low end pops mainly NW portions of CWA but overall expect increasing clouds through Thurs with limited if any pcp through Thurs night. The very dry mid levels may moisten up enough to produce some iso shwrs late Thurs into early Fri. Temps will be climbing back toward normal after a cool start Wed morning. Overall expect a warming trend as decent return flow sets up through the low levels with increasing temps and dewpoint temps. Temps near 70 Wed will be well into the 70s by Thurs. Overnight lows Thurs night will be well above normal as clouds and increased moisture will keep readings in the 50s to near 60. The actual sfc feature may move through just after this period with mainly a drop in dewpoint temps. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Relatively flat mid-level flow will allow features to move rapidly across the country through the extended before amplification occurs in response to a building ridge late in the period. A cold front will cross the area Friday morning, but with little fanfare, noted only by a wind shift to the NW and slightly increased cloud cover. Little to no temperature difference is forecast behind this boundary, and temperatures Friday and through the wknd will likely average 5-10 degrees above climo, although good radiational cooling Friday night will permit mins to drop to near seasonable levels around 50. The fast flow aloft allows high pressure overhead Saturday to push offshore early next week before a second cold front drops across the Carolinas late on Monday. This front is also expected to be dry with best dynamics well north of the area, so Halloween festivities should be warm and dry, with just slightly cooler weather forecast behind the boundary. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of fact clear skies through the period. Winds have just about gone calm except for MYR, which will drop down to near calm soon. Our only FM groups will be to show winds picking up by a few knots with sunrise and mixing, with a small veer to NE and then E as high pressure moves from Great Lakes to the Northeast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 PM Tuesday...Cool and dry Canadian high pressure will continue to ridge southward across the area. Northerly winds will veer northeasterly with speeds 10 to 15 kts. Seas are down to 2-3 feet and shouldn`t change much over the night. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast Wed into Thurs before a cold front approaches late Thurs into Fri. This will push winds around from the NE to the E through Wed and SE to S through Thurs. Overall expect winds to remain between 10 and 15 kt and seas subsiding Wed into Thurs with a slight rise Thurs night...generally 2 to 3 ft. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A dry cold front will cross the waters Friday aftn, accompanied by a wind shift from W/SW around 10 kts to NW and then NW by Saturday morning, at around 5 kts. High pressure then builds across the waters Saturday before pushing offshore Sunday. This allows winds to become SW once again by Saturday night at 10-15 kts, persisting here on Sunday. Seas will be around 2-3 ft through the period, with variable wave groups on Friday, featuring a more predominant SE swell and SW wind wave late Saturday and Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MBB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.