Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281223 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 823 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSTABLE AIR AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AID THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY ENDING THE PCPN THREAT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. DAY-TIME FRI HIGHS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S DUE TO THE AID OF A W TO NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PCPN. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LATE MON ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT ON TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CURRENT SHOWER WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM BRUNSWICK COUNTY NORTHWARD...HAS RESULTED IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING AND AVBL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS VIEWED BY THE LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. CLOUD TOPS BARELY TOUCH 20K FEET WITH NO LIGHTNING BEING REPORTED UP TO THIS POINT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM AS THE LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING DISSIPATES. PREVIOUS................................................... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT REACHED ITS FURTHEST SOUTHERN EXTENT... HAVING STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA-NC STATE LINE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. THE STALLED FRONT TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. FOR TODAY...THE FA REMAINS PRIMED ATLEAST INSTABILITY-WISE...WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3500...AND JUST ENOUGH AVBL MOISTURE THRU THE ATM COLUMN FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS PLACED LIMITS ON MOISTURE TAPPING. WHAT THE FA IS WAITING FOR ARE DYNAMICS TO KICK START THE PCPN ACTIVITY. THE MODELS...EVEN THIS CLOSE IN TIME...ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN MAINLY THE TIMING OF THESE ARE ANY FEATURES THAT PRODUCE UVVS ACROSS THE FA TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND THEIR TIMING. THE WEAKEST OF THE AVBL DYNAMICS FOR PCPN FORMATION WILL BE THE SEA BREEZE. THE 1ST AND STRONGEST OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER S/W TROFS OR VORTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE NEXT 1 WILL BE THIS EVENING. FOR POPS...HAVE CAPPED THEM BELOW 50 PERCENT AT THEIR PEAK. PCPN TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU THIS EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE DAYS INSOLATION. AND FINALLY...THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI WILL RESULT IN ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY. THIS A RESULT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MID AND UPPER LEVELS WORKING INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH BY FRI DAYBREAK...AFTER PEAKING AROUND 1.50 INCHES DURING TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...THE TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL BE FOR A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE STATES. FOR FRI HOWEVER...THE W TO NW FLOW THRU THE ATM COLUMN...AND THUS A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY OFF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL AID MAX TEMPS ON FRI THAT REACH THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT ANY CLOUDINESS OR MOISTURE ALOFT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ILM CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES...TO TEMPORARILY RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NE-ENE COOL SURGE PEAKING DURING SAT. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SURGE DUE TO A DRY ATM COLUMN UNDER W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER THE ILM CWA SAT NIGHT ENDING THE COOL SURGE OF AIR. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AFTER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. RETURN SE FLOW AT THE SFC...WILL START PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE FA. HAVE HELD POPS AT BAY UNTIL DAYTIME SUN. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED. TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH. VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCRE WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CREATING IFR ATTM. EXPECT MVFR/IFR AT KCRE/POTENTIALLY KMYR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF KILM AS WELL AS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHOWERS NEAR KILM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE INLAND TERMINALS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 15 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AND LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL PREVAIL THOUGH AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 545 AM THURSDAY...HAVE INCLUDED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE NEARSHORE ILM NC WATERS THRU MID- MORNING. LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THIS PCPN THREAT TIL MID DAYTIME MORNING. PREVIOUS......................................................... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE ILM WATERS TODAY. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A NEARLY SOLID SW 15 KT WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTN...AND TRACK TO OFF THE OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK FRI. NOT ALL THAT DRAMATIC WITH THIS CFP...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SEAS TO BUILD. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM THURSDAY...A RELAXED SFC PG ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS FRI WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT. THE ENE GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS DURING FRI. A COOL NE WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR LATER FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES DOWN THE EAST COAST TO THE ILM CWA. FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...LOOK FOR WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 KT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE...10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE E-SE SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE BREAK FROM THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT THRU SAT NIGHT WILL ELEVATE TO 3 TO 4 FT CAPE FEAR NORTH...AND HOLD AT 3 FT OR LESS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WIND DRIVEN 3 TO 5 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SAT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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