Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 172316 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 616 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our south will move offshore tonight and Saturday. An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers Saturday night. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last through next week. Dry weather during the early and middle portions of next week may turn wetter late in the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 630 PM Friday...A rather hefty seabreeze (for Mid-February anyway) is winding down after producing sustained wind speeds of 13-16 mph for several hours at both Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach this afternoon. A minor tweak or two has been made to temperatures and dewpoints based on current conditions, otherwise no significant changes are needed to the forecast. Discussion from 300 PM follows... High pressure centered across FL will move further east through the night. This will bring a warmer SW flow to the eastern Carolinas tonight. A southern stream system moving across the Southern Plains will reach the Lower Mississippi River Valley by morning. High level moisture streaming northward in the form of cirrus should reach at least portions of the area near daybreak, most prevalent across South Carolina. It will remain dry through the period and elevated winds above the boundary layer along with low-level dry air will preclude any significant fog development. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday...An area of low pressure, surface and aloft, will be positioned across the Ark-La-Tex at the start of the period with a shortwave ridge traversing the Carolinas. The southern stream system to our W will move toward the NE as the ridge lifts out Sat, but in a weakening state. We will see clouds increase ahead of this feature. A short-lived, but deepening and strengthening SW flow will struggle to transport moisture northward. However, by later Sat afternoon and Sat night, the depth of moisture does adequately increase and can`t rule out isolated showers, but rainfall amounts will be on the order of only a few hundreths where rain does fall. The upper trough and weak surface reflection will move off the coast Sunday morning, ending the risk for any light precipitation, shifting light SW winds to NW and bringing a clearing trend. Weak high pressure will follow on Sun. Highs will be in the lower 70s both days, except along the immediate coast where mid and upper 60s will be most common. There could be some mid 70s across the extreme southern portions of the Forecast Area away from the cooling influences of the Ocean. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat night and perhaps a degree or two lower Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday...A closed mid level cyclone will move slowly across the southern tier of the U.S. basically through most of the extended period. There are indications this system will move a bit to the north and maybe just off the North Carolina coast by next Friday in a much weakened state. At the surface high pressure will be in place centered over the northeast for most of the period. Normally this is cool scenario for the area but with ridging aloft extending to the southeast not necessarily so this time around. Highs will be mostly in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We continue to advertise low chance pops late in the period as the mid level system spawns a coastal trough which may lead to some unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR expected through the forecast period. Light southwest flow overnight with possible ground fog around sunrise. Southwest flow will increase through the day on Saturday. A weak and diffuse upper low will approach the region by Saturday evening, with some isolated/scattered convection possible. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in isolated showers Sat night thru early Sun due to the passage of a weak low pressure system and cold front. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 PM Friday...Forecast wind speeds early this evening have been bumped up based on observations showing gusts over 20 knots out at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy, and seabreeze-enhanced winds nearshore sustained near 15 knots. Nearshore winds should diminish rather quickly this evening as the seabreeze circulation dies away, but the synoptic gradient should still produce 10-15 knot winds overnight. Sea heights have been increased by up to a foot based on current buoy observations showing 3 feet at Frying Pan. Discussion from 300 PM follows... High pressure across FL will move E through tonight. SW winds will persist across the waters. The pressure gradient will tighten between the offshore high and a lee trough and this will increase wind speeds to 10 to 15 kt this eve and overnight. Seas will build from 1 to 2 ft this afternoon to 2 to 3 ft later tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday...SW winds will continue on Sat and Sat eve ahead of a weakening southern stream system. Then in the wake of this system, the wind direction will shift to the NW overnight Sat with NW winds persisting during Sun before veering to N Sun night as weak high pressure moves further E. Strongest winds this period will be up to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be up to 2 to 3 ft tonight, otherwise 2 ft or less. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday...Expect mostly northeast winds through the period as high pressure, anchored well off to the northeast is the main driver of the winds. Speeds will be very modest hovering around ten knots or so. By Wednesday the system becomes very diffuse and winds gain a southeast component mainly driven by the sea breeze. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early dropping to 1-3 feet as time progresses.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL

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