Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261641 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1140 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...NO ICING CONCERNS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN DROPPED. LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE...PASSING WELL OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. BRISK NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS A FRESH SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE TODAY. WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY REACH THE MID 40S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE NEW GUIDANCE PACKAGE ARRIVES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON ROADAYS AND WALKWAYS WILL FREEZE TONIGHT. BRIDGES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...DRY BUT COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS HIGH DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY...AND IS INTENSIFIED BY PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE ALOFT. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRI/SAT...BUT THESE STRONG WEDGES ARE FREQUENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NE FLOW...WHICH MANIFEST AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS...WILL NOT BE AS OPTIMISTIC AS THE GUIDANCE WITH SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER. THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOLIDLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY THE COLDER DAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME PLACES WON`T EVEN CRACK 40. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD...FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW MORE LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS...FINALLY...AS BROAD RIDGING ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW LONG THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST...AND 2 SEPARATE COLD FRONTS NEXT WEEK COULD QUICKLY BRING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE WEDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL DEVELOPING RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...BUT THE INHERITED INCREASING POP SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPS MONDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER SHOWER CHANCES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LEAVES TUESDAY AS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...BUT EXPECT JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY ON RETURN FLOW AND CONTINUED MID-LEVEL RIDGING...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY. THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL THE RAIN OVER THE REGION...THINK SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS...SO HOPEFULLY NO WORSE THAN 5SM VISIBILITY. FRIDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP.
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&& .MARINE... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL UNDERWAY WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT THE MASONBORO BUOY THIS MORNING AND 10 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS BACKED FROM NE TO N AND NNW AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT...BUT STILL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS PRODUCES PERSISTENT N/NE WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE WEDGE BECOMES MOST INTENSE. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY FRIDAY WILL RISE GRADUALLY...BECOMING STRONGEST ON SATURDAY WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS. VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE WEDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...WHEN 4-6 FT SEAS WILL BE COMMON...AND AN SCA IS LIKELY. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT BOTH BEFORE THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...AND AGAIN AFTER IT SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL LEAVE EASING NE WINDS MUCH OF SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT THEN SHIFT ABRUPTLY BACK TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL HOVER AROUND 2-4 FT...BUT A NE WIND CHOP WILL DOMINATE THE SPECTRUM ON SUNDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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