Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271455 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY... BUT CHILLY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO THE MID 40S WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH SOME MID 20S IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE MELTING SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WILL MOVE TO PENNSYLVANIA BY MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...JET CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST...WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY MVFR FOG LEFTOVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEDGE SETS UP. && .MARINE...
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 AM FRIDAY...NO ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WATERS FOR A CHANGE TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING SAT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN INCREASE ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO WITH THE APPROACH OF SAT MORNING. A SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT MOST OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO 15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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