Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261634 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1234 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAINTAINING WARM CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1234 PM TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN LINE WITH EXPECTED LATE MAY WEATHER. A FORMIDABLE CAP ABOVE 18000 FEET REMAINS INTACT...WITH MODERATE RH LEVELS BETWEEN H8-H5 HELPING TO SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. STEERING WINDS WILL GUIDE CONVECTION SSW TO NNE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AS WELL THROUGH AFTERNOON. SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT NEW GROWTH FARTHER INLAND...AND DEVELOPMENT OVER SC IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWING HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SC. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE RETAINED THROUGHOUT AND HIGHS IN THE 80S WAY FROM THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH FOLLOWING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST EVEN AS THE CENTER DRIFTS AWAY HOWEVER...SO WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST. TEMPS BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 85-88 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE INLAND ZONES...WITH 80-83 MORE COMMON AT THE BEACHES. WHILE THESE HIGHS REPRESENT NEAR-NORMAL VALUES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FEATURE POSITIVE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WITH RETURN FLOW LIMITING NOCTURNAL COOLING TO JUST THE MID 60S...NEAR 70 AT THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...CONVECTION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ON THE DIURNAL MAXIMUMS. INCREASING PWAT AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES...BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SOME STRUNG OUT VORT ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NOTE THAT SPC DOESN`T EVEN HAVE A GENERAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY IS DEFINITELY THE FAVORED DAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED CHC POP BOTH AFTNS...WANING TO SILENT/SCHC AT NIGHT. NO STRONG OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME THE NORM THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPPER RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK FROM THE ATLANTIC. UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOIST ADVECTION WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...AND FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PERMIT GOOD INSOLATION AND ALL FACTORS SUGGEST THAT 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE NORM AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE WKND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO JUNE. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...AS EVEN THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL HAVE TROUBLE PENETRATING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN POP BUT KEEP IT ON THE VERY LOW CHC SIDE AS MOIST ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE MOST PART HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH THE HEAT/HUMIDITY COMBINATION MAKING IT START TO FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP US IN SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE OVERALL MOVING WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. CEILINGS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY MVFR IN THE SHOWERS...WORST CASE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END AS WE LOSE OUR HEATING...SOMETIME AFTER 21Z. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AS MUCH LIGHT FOG AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE INLAND TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OUT WEST...WITH POSSIBLY SOME DECENT COVERAGE WEST OF I 95. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1234 PM TUESDAY...S-SE 10 TO 15 KT FOR SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULTANT WIND NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A BIT OF A WIND CHOP TO OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM THE ACTIVE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WIND BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH WINDS PERSISTENT FROM THE SE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION. WITH THIS PERSISTENT WIND AND THE LIGHT SPEEDS...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SE GROUND SWELL OF 7-8 SEC CREATING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA TYPE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE ONLY REAL NOTICEABLE IMPACT TO THIS RETREATING HIGH WILL BE A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM SE TO E ON FRIDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SE AGAIN SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE TO THE OVERALL WAVE SPECTRUM HOWEVER...AND SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT WITH A SE 8-9 SEC GROUND SWELL FORMING THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL/8

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