Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 060308 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1108 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A BETTER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHILE SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT MAKES THEM MORE SPARSE ON TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1045 PM SUNDAY...THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS EVENING VIA LATEST KLTX 88D TRENDS. WILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HOURS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W UPPER TROF AKA 5H VORT...ROTATING AROUND THE TN/KY CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL AFFECT THE ILM CWA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TOWADS DAYBREAK MON. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. COAST...WILL DRIFT NNE TO JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY DAYBREAK MON. DYNAMICS FROM THESE 2 FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AVBL AT BEST...WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND JUST OVERNIGHT OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS. AND THE INLAND VORT...WILL AFFECT THE FAR NW-N PRTIONS OF THE FA.. APPLIED A DEGREE OR 2 TWEAKING OF TONIGHTS MINS...MAINLY HIER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOCAL WATERS WHERE SSW-SW WINDS ACROSS 80+ DEGREE SSTS TO MODIFY MINS HIER AT THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN QUITE STRONG FOR JULY. IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP BY MONDAY AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. THE BEST PVA OCCURS EARLY IN THE DAY SO SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. STORM MOTION WILL HAVE A STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE UPPER WAVE VEERS THE BL FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE ABLE TO SHOW HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL SINCE ANY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER WAVE ON TUESDAY WE FIND OURSELVES WITH VERY LITTLE MID LEVEL FLOW...SWRLY AT 10KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE VERY WEAK. THE WRF EVEN GOES SO FAR AS TO SHOW NO QPF AREA-WIDE. NOT QUITE READY TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT SLIGHT CHANCE/ISO COVERAGE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE LEADS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED CONVECTION CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SURFACE FEATURE...WHILE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WHILE THE 500MB RIDGE BLOSSOMS...THE GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DRIVE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY IN THIS REGIME...AND AM GOING TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND WPC ANALYZES A TROUGH...LIKELY AN ENHANCED VERSION OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...ON FRIDAY. WILL SHOW A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUMMERTIME VALUES. DECREASING POP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WKND AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BENEATH THE GROWING RIDGE...BUT AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY STILL SET OFF ISOLATED STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. AS FAR AS THE HEAT GOES...THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO CONTINUE THIS ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WE`VE BEEN EXPERIENCING A LOT OF RECENTLY. HIGHS AND LOWS MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAY RISE TO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE ON FRI/SAT WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOW CIGS...POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS...AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...WILL BOTH PROVIDE A SEMI-TIGHTENED SFC PG THAT WILL YIELD SSW THRU WSW RRWINDS AROUND 15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN RR2 AND 4 FT. DOMINATING PERIODS WILL RUN AT 8 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF A WEAK PSEUDO SWELL. BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE PRESENT 15 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY RIGHT AROUND 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY AND SEAS WILL BE CHOPPY DUE TO THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... A STRONG BUT ALSO WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL GLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A PIEDMONT TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE. THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OFFSET BY A BIT OF A RETROGRESSION OF THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH. THE END RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND OR WAVES. LONG TERM MARINE/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH KEEPS TYPICAL SW SUMMERTIME FLOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AND CAUSES SLIGHT PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE SWELL MOSTLY MASKED BY A SW WIND CHOP.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL MARINE...REK/RGZ/SHK

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