Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181032 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 631 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS ARE LOW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. MOST PRECIP NOTED VIA RADAR REMAINS ACROSS GA...OR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH FAR OFFSHORE AT THE MOMENT. TRENDS FOR INCREASING RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ARE ON TRACK AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...TODAY WE WILL TRANSITION FROM DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN OLD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL BY TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURES TRANSLATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO OVER FL BY TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE GULF AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES) THEN ALL AREAS TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE KEEPING THE WARM SECTOR OFFSHORE AS WELL. THE RESULTING COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL WILL ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXITING THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E-NE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH BUT WILL NOT KEEP IT FROM SPREADING RAIN INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP A DECENT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT WILL COME THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE BUT MAY SEE SOME DRY AIR GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS LATER IN THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING LIFT AND SOME DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THE LOW WILL SHIFT ALMOST DUE EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW BUT BEST LIFT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS AND LINGERING PCP HEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP GREATEST QPF EAST. THE STIFF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO LOCAL AREA WITH PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SAT MORNING DIMINISHING TO 1.25 INCHES BY SAT EVENING AND DOWN LESS THAN A HALF INCH AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM KEEPS DRY AIR FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST QPF ON SATURDAY BUT LINGERING PCP INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 2 INCH RANGE. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS SOUTH INTO AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH MONDAY. A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE SKY LEAVING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND CUTOFF LOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH TUES AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF PROGRESSING FRONT. THE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY KEEPING MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...BUT HAVE INCLUDED INCREASED CHC FOR CONVECTION ON TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN W-NW KEEPING A WARMER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO MID WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. OVERALL EXPECT WARMER MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ONLY REAL CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL COME ON TUES WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF WARM APRIL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS REACHING UP WELL INTO THE 70S MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...WEDGE WILL HANG ON AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 6 KTS. THE GFS IS INTRODUCING STRATUS TOWARD MORNING BUT THINK THIS WILL BE A STRETCH AND WENT WITH SCATTERED. FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 20-21Z...ONE TO THREE HOURS LATER FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE FAIRLY STEADY STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GUSTY ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KNOTS INSHORE BUT ARE LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NORTHEAST FETCH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION ARE THE SEAS ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE THERE ARE FETCH LIMITATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...THEN AS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SWAN OUTPUT APPEARS TOO LOW CONSIDERING THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FETCH TODAY...AND HAVE BUMPED THE OUTPUT UP BY 1 TO 2 FT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OUTERMOST WATERS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME VARIABLE WINDS AS TROUGH EXTENDS UP FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS. MAY SEE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BUT AS NEXT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTN SEAS MAY DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BEFORE SHOOTING UP ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH SAT BEFORE RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH LATE SAT UP TO 7 TO 9 FT. WNA HAS SEAS PEAKING UP TO 10 FT SUN MORNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS REACH 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OUT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BACK AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUES INTO WED OFF SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING NEAR SHORE SEAS TO DROP OUT WHILE OFF SHORE SEAS MAY RISE A BIT. OVERALL EXPECT SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MON WITH A RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TUES INTO WED IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT HEADING INTO WED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/SRP

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