Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280548 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. Showers will increase across the area as moisture of tropical origins moves onshore through early this week. A strong cold front is expected to move across the Carolinas late this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 118 AM Sunday...Latest KLTX 88D indicates pcpn dissipating across land areas of the ILM CWA. Will continue isolated for the far western inland counties thru 1 to 2 am. Isolated offshore and nearshore upstream showers have developed and are moving to the SW. Over land, POPs have been dropped for the remainder of this evening. However, will need low POPs for the immediate coast toward sunrise for any pcpn that develops over the adjacent waters that may have a tendency to move onshore. Current min fcst looks aok, no tweaks needed at this time. Will also up the cloud coverage along the immediate coast to partly cloudy. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona, now manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some tropical features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the local area through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak low pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow westward movement and poor prospects for development it is expected that there will be little to no impact on the local area during the short term. We will see a gradual return of deep moisture through the period and improved chances for mainly diurnal convection. Sunday looks to be the better day for rain chances as subsidence and dry air to the west of the aforementioned system will help suppress convection. Daytime temperatures will be seasonal or even a little below depending upon extent of cloud cover. Nighttime temperatures will remain a bit above normal with dewpoints remaining elevated in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday...Uncertainty is the theme for the extended as several components namely tropical or possible tropical entities are poised to affect the area. First, the moisture and system moving across the Caribbean may shift to the north and west and link up with yet another system, the remants of Fiona which are forecast to move due east with possible redevelopment. A mid level low churning off the southeast coast will be modulating the moisture for the most part. Usually with systems similar to these, the moisture remains mostly confined to the eastern half of the system as continental air is just too much to overcome with weak advection. Overall the strategy of chance to isolated pops for Tuesday and Wednesday looks good with higher values along the coast. The end of the period is suddenly looking a bit messy as well. The mid level trough that pushes a front through the area Friday and Saturday looks somewhat weaker and mid level drying remains to the north. I have incrementally increased pops and cloud cover to address. Temperature forecast is at the mercy of the moisture and is low confidence as well but didn`t make wholesale changes from the previous package. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Showers dissipating over inland areas, but drifting toward the coast in moist E-NE on shore flow. With northeast flow expected in the lower levels tonight there is a chance for low level stratus before daybreak. Guidance shows a mix of fog in spots along with stratus through early morning hours. Therefore have kept with previous forecast to include a scattered deck of stratus generally after 09 utc. Also will include MVFR for BR at KFLO and KILM. After sunrise winds are expected to be from the northeast to east at less than 10 knots with a broken deck of clouds at or above 5000feet. Expect some shwrs/tstms in vicinity of coastal terminals through early this aftn and farther inland mid to late aftn. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR Wed/Thu.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 118 AM Sunday...Included mention of E swell in CWF product. High pressure will re- establish its ridging from the NE states tonight. This will result in east winds around 5 kt becoming east to northeast around 10 kt toward morning. Exception is nearshore thru the mid to late evening hrs, where the sea breeze has produced a fading e to se wind at 10 to 15 kt. Have backed down on the pcpn coverage to isolated and that will mainly occur during the pre- dawn Sunday hours. Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft which have mainly been a function of a 2 to 4 foot swell at 9 second periods mainly from the remnants of Fiona. This will continue thru the overnight with wind-driven waves having little input, other then a small chop on top of the swell. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday...The remnants of long-dead Fiona, now manifesting itself as a loosely organized low with some tropical features, is forecast to drift slowly west towards the waters through the period as either a tropical-like wave or a weak low pressure system. Due to the weakness of this feature, its slow westward movement and poor prospects for development it is expected that there will be little impact upon the local waters. Expect NE to E winds in the 10 to 15 kt range through the short term. Seas will stay mainly in the 3 or 4 ft range, although some 5 footers over our outer waters are possible due to the contribution of swell energy from distant yet slowly strengthening TS Gaston. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday...With all that may be going on the winds will be somewhat benign. For Tuesday and into early Wednesday winds will be mostly from the northeast and ten knots or less. A weak pattern later Wednesday will be followed by a possible frontal passage Thursday with a shift to northwest winds. Not much in the way of CAA with the front so speeds remain ten knots or less. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but longer period swell may continue to warrant some rip current hazards. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ/DRH

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