Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160531 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 131 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRICKLED IN WITH LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS COOLER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY BELOW FREEZING IN LUMBERTON. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING MIXED...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING...I STILL LIKE THE WARMER NAM/MET NUMBERS. LONG STORY SHORT...I AM NOT ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. I DO THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN SPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FURTHER EMPHASIZE THE CAVEATS/THREATS IS THE GFS NUMBERS DO VERIFY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY) RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL. THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS: RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17: WILMINGTON, NC - 34 FLORENCE, SC - 33 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32 HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS AND SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT. N WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING ...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMING NE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN THE MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR STRATUS CIGS EACH MORNING. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK OFF FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS...A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF 15-20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY INTACT. THIS MORNINGS VALUES OF 3-8 FEET WILL DROP TO 4-6 FEET LATE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT 20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...

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