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000
FXUS62 KILM 220148
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will pass through tonight bringing an end t
the rain. Sunshine returns Monday as more high pressure builds
in from the west through Wednesday. A backdoor cold front sags
through the area Wednesday night followed by high pressure
building from the north.

&&

.UPDATE...
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No big changes with the mid evening update. Most of the rain is
over but some light rain could re-develop overnight as the
strong upper trough approaches from the west. Lows should drop
into the mid to upper 40s most inland spots, several degrees
below normal for this time of year.

As for the marine forecast, a few gusts around 25 kt and seas
near 6 ft (mainly off the NC coast) are expected into Monday
but just not quite enough to pull the trigger on a Small Craft
Advisory at this time.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moist air riding up over cooler air behind a cold front will produce
rain into the evening hours. The front will move father out to sea
Monday as surface high pressure begins to move in but a passing
upper low could enhance clouds in the morning and result in a few
showers nearer the coast. Clearing is expected by afternoon.
Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper 40s with highs Monday in
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night looks like a radiational cooling setup with high
pressure overhead. Temperatures will drop quickly, reaching 40
degrees towards daybreak with a few upper 30s possible in the
normally chilly parts of Pender/Bladen. As the high gets suppressed
to the south by a very large and powerful storm off the coast a
local SW flow will develop. These light winds will allow for a
warmup, though the expected low 70s still a category below
climatology. Light SW winds continue Tuesday night brining lows that
are just a few degrees shy of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much in the way of thermal advection heading into Wednesday but
the increasingly high sun angle will bring highs back to normal. A
backdoor cold front then sags through Wednesday night with little
moisture flux ahead of it so not very good rain chances. High
pressure builds in from the north on Thursday. For now the forecast
will remain dry, but the GFS especially is showing some very light
overrunning rain.  This high moves offshore for the remainder of the
period while a mid level ridge builds meaning a dry and warming
period after Thursday`s brief cooldown.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Moderate to high confidence for the 00Z TAFs across SE NC and NE
SC. Variable conditions from VFR to IFR to start the 00Z period
with general improvement to VFR expected by around 12Z as
deeper moisture shifts offshore.

Extended Outlook...High pressure building in late Monday through
Friday will bring mainly VFR through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday:
N winds 15 to 20 KT are expected tonight and Monday. Seas of 3
to 4 FT this afternoon will build to 3 to 5 FT Monday. No flags.

Monday night through Friday... Northerly flow early in the
period the result of high pressure building from the west and to
a lesser extend a large system well offshore. Very light winds
slated for Tuesday as the high builds overhead and sinks
slightly to the south. Southerly flow returns Tuesday night
into WEdnesday as the high moves offshore but flow then veers
with the passage of a Wednesday night backdoor cold front. E to
NE flow is then expected for the remainder of the period. Wind
waves and E swell both taper early in the period, but swell
energy should increase from the midweek on as the offshore low
deepens to 992 mb.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MBB/31