Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260526 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 126 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...MASSIVE BUMP UP IN FORECAST POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK EAST OF GEORGETOWN...FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON BASED ON RADAR AND ALL NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ACTUALLY GROW IN INTENSITY GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. I HAVE ADDED THUNDER BACK IN AFTER 10Z/6 AM MAINLY FOR THE CAPE FEAR AREA. DISCUSSION FROM 1130 PM FOLLOWS... LATE EVENING UPDATE ISSUED TO BUMP UP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO DAYBREAK AS HOURLY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA IN SE WARM SECTOR WIND FLOW. RADAR DETECTING ECHOS DOTTING THE COASTAL WATERS GUIDED LANDWARD BY H9-H8 SSE 30 KT STEERING WINDS. ISOLATED COVERAGE AT THIS TIME MAY INCREASE TO A SCATTERED RANGE AND MAY FAVOR SC ZONES AS SPEED CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER INSHORE WATER HAS WEAKENED CONVECTION ON APPROACH TO LAND BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS INLAND. THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP BUT ANOTHER DEGREE OR 2 IF AT ALL INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. DO NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROBUST ENOUGH TO TRIP TSTMS OVER LAND AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGHS NEAR 80...THUNDER...AND THE (SLIGHT) POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ALL WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD. GOOD STUFF! A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE RAIN-FREE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION WHILE A FEW VERY WEAK VORTS PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT. TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80 DESPITE ABOUT 50 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE COOL SSTS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPR 70S IN THE STRONG SW FLOW. FOR SIMILAR REASONS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BRUNSWICK CTY AND MUCH OF THE GRAND STRAND WILL BE EVEN MORE TEMPERED. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW START TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA. THIS FRONT BARRELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUMBLING INTO THE LOWER 50S IF NOT COLDER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY 00Z AT WHICH TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LAGGING VORT HOWEVER SOME NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT DOWNRIGHT LIKELY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN FORCE THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLUMN THAT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C ALONG THE COAST AND -4C INLAND. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH LOWS NOT FALLING TO FREEZING NOT TO MENTION THE WARM GROUND FROM THE WARMTH LEADING UP TO FROPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. ARCTIC HIGH WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. AT THIS POINT A FREEZE SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. THE KEY WILL BE LOCATION OF THE HIGH SAT NIGHT. IF THE HIGH ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS IN THE MID 20S WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGH WILL END UP DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S. DEEP DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE THE REGION REMAINS DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUN AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND LACKING DYNAMICS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA AND AT THIS POINT THINKS ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT TEMP REBOUND EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT BY MIDWEEK TEMPS WILL BE BACK NEAR CLIMO AS HIGH MODIFIES AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON DUE TO LOW CIGS...RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN SC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY SIDESTEP FLO TO THE EAST...AFFECTING MYR/CRE AND LBT THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z IT WILL SHIFT TOWARD ILM WITH CONTINUED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS WEST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FLO AND LBT BETWEEN 07-08Z...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT MYR/CRE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK...LOW CLOUDS MAINLY INLAND WILL LIFT IN THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION NEAR ILM SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 15Z. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SHRA...BECOMING VFR LATER SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN RADAR AND VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS. DISCUSSION FROM 1145 PM FOLLOWS... LATE EVENING UPDATE ISSUED TO RAISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. 15-20 KT SE WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS TO PREVAIL...EXCEPT 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG WITH MILD SE WINDS OVER THE COOLER INSHORE WATERS. WINDSPEEDS LOWER INSHORE AND NO EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IS PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SSE TO NNW AT 25 KT SO GUSTY AT TIMES NEAR SHOWERS. SEAS 3-4 FEET MOST AREAS AND 5 FEET OUTER WATERS. SE WAVES 3-4 FEET EVERY 6 SECONDS MOST MARINE LOCATIONS. INLETS MAY BE A BIT TURBULENT DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... MODERATELY STRONG PREFRONTAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BUT COOL SSTS WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL MIXING ADEQUATELY SUCH THAT WIND NOR SEAS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY. THEN AN ABRUPT VEER EARLY FRIDAY WITH FROPA ITSELF. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT THE PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY SHORTEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KT OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHWEST COMPONENT WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20 NM AND IT APPEARS HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GRADIENT RELAXES LATE SUN AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS SUN NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING MON...PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MON NIGHT...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT MAY BUILD SEAS ACROSS OUTER EDGES OF 20 NM OVER 6 FT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...TRA/SGL

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