Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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355 FXUS62 KILM 090233 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 933 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE BAND OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO REFLECT PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AND EXPECT BY MIDNIGHT IT WILL HAVE ALL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. AS EXPECTED QPF VALUES WERE ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH...TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING ISSUES. AIR MASS REMAINS TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING BAND OF PRECIP HAVE ENDED. EXPECT A DRY AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH ROBERTO FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST. DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 20-25 KNOT RANGE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK GROUND SWELL.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 930 PM MONDAY...COASTAL FLOODING IN PROGRESS ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER NEAR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON AND ADJOINING AREAS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING. THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3 FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE. ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK

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