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000
FXUS62 KILM 161320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
920 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 9:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TEMPERATURE WISE...A PAGE RIGHT OUT OF THE CLIMATE BOOKS
ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MAXIMUM
READINGS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE AREA CAPPING THE COLUMN WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ABOVE 800
MILLIBARS. HENCE NO MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SMATTERING OF 5
KFT CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS DUE
TO THE SEA-AIR MODIFICATION WORKING INLAND. MILD OVERNIGHT IN SW
WIND FLOW WITH A PROGRESSIVELY MOISTENING COLUMN. SEVERAL IMPULSES
UPSTREAM THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR VERY WESTERN ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE...NO MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SINCE SOME DRY AIR MAY LINGER ALOFT WITH VERY WEAK OMEGA FIELDS IN
PLACE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS LATER MONDAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE USUAL CULPRITS...THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE TIMING...LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF LIKELY POPS. ANY SEVERE
THREAT...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS TIME OF YEAR LOOKS TO BE
HIGHEST...RELATIVELY SPEAKING TUESDAY WHEN THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S KEEP READINGS COMFORTABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WPC CONTINUES TO OPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS
MODEST AMPLITUDE FOR THE CONUS. THE EAST COAST WILL SEE A SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
KEEPS A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. I HAVE
TRENDED BACK POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND. HOWEVER I CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ANY DAY. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS WARRANTS A TICK DOWN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY REGARDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL...HOWEVER A LARGE BATCH OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED JUST WEST
OF THE CWA. LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING...WITH
PERHAPS A MID CLOUD CEILING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW...GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR
POSSIBLE. VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ON THE WATERS BUT SHOULD BACK
TOWARD A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON INSHORE AS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION UNFOLDS. GUSTS TO 20
KT NEAR-SHORE OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT...MAINLY IN A COMBINATION OF S WAVES
2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 FT EVERY 10 SECONDS. NO
TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTH
WAVES INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO AN INCREASING FETCH LENGTH AND
DURATION.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY FROM
THE STANDARD 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CLOSE BEHIND WITH INITIAL VALUES OF 2-4 FEET
INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW BUT FOR NOW THE WATERS SHOULD SEE A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A VERY WEAK ALMOST VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
LATER IN THE DAY CONTINUING THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE HIGHEST
EARLY WITH 3-5 FEET WHICH IS A RESIDUAL AFFECT FROM EARLIER HIGHER
WINDS. BY THURSDAY EVENING SEAS SHOULD BE 2-3 FEET.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK