Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171900 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 300 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE 850-500 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S AS OF 18Z. THIS IS A FASTER RECOVERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TIER THAN WAS PROGGED BY MOS...SO HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS IN THAT AREA. GENERALLY A RANGE OF 43-49 EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO ALTHOUGH I HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH SEEMED MORE SIMILAR. WHICH MODELS ULTIMATELY VERIFY MAKES A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS FAR AS POPS AND QPF GOES...WITH THE NAM BEING SIGNIFICANTLY THE DRYER SOLUTION. AS I HAVE FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...I AM NOW EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...WITH QPF EVENT TOTALS IN THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE BELOW NORMAL RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S BOTH DAYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 3:00 PM THURSDAY...CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRAVERSING FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS AT ODDS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING. HOWEVER EVEN THE MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES AND THE FCST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY HOWEVER THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED UPWARDS BOTH WITH RESPECT TO POP VALUES AND NORTHERN EXTENT. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY MONDAY PAVING THE WAY FOR A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. BY TUESDAY THE STILL WEAK BL FLOW TURNS FROM NRLY TO SRLY BOOSTING TEMPS. AN UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPEAR SLATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BUT IT SEEMS TOO MOISTURE-DEPRIVED TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MARINE SC REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ATTM AS WINDS REMAIN NE THROUGH 3-4K. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NE 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BUT AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME MORE E AND SE TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW THE SC TO INITIALLY ADVECT INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THEN DEVELOPING AT THE INLAND TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT TEMPO VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AS MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASE. GFS MOS GUIDANCE MOST AGGRESSIVE...AND IS INDICATING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z...WITH NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWER CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. SINCE BOTH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1K...WILL INDICATE SCT IFR LEVEL STRATUS ATTM. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OR WELL S OF THE TERMINALS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL AS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/MBB/CRM

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