Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 151912
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
312 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
with a couple periods of showers expected as a front lingers
nearby. A much stronger front will sweep through the area Monday
night bringing below normal temperatures through Tuesday.
Warmer weather will develop late in the week with rain chances
returning by Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Pre frontal trough and or shortwave moving across the
area this afternoon a bit more robust than previous thinking but
not much. This activity should continue fading as it moves eastward.
A secondary front and associated wave will move across later
tonight. Most of the recent high resolution guidance along with some
globals are highlighting more of South Carolina and I have adjusted
pops accordingly. Saturday appears to be dry but anticipated
lingering low clouds will make it less than an ideal spring day.
There is an ample supply of mid and high level clouds as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Our focus in the short term is the erosion of Saturday`s stalled
front in the Cape Fear area, then the arrival of an upper
disturbance Sunday evening.
Light southerly winds are expected Saturday in the wake the
dissipating front. Saturday`s subsidence inversion should begin
to weaken Saturday night, especially inland, but the atmosphere
should still remain too stable for any convective threat. Mid
level moisture trapped near the inversion aloft should tend to
dissipate overnight and I`ve dipped forecast low temps into the
52-56 range with better radiational cooling expected.
Sunday should see increasing high clouds streaming ahead of the
Gulf coast upper disturbance. A cluster of showers and embedded
thunderstorms accompanying the disturbance should move across
Georgia and South Carolina, perhaps reaching across the border
in southeastern North Carolina Sunday night. Among the 12z
models the ECMWF is the northernmost, the Canadian is the
southernmost, and the GFS in in the middle. My forecast PoPs
range from 70 percent along the Grand Strand to 30-40 percent
across Bennettsville and Lumberton. This moisture should clear
offshore before sunrise Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry and significantly colder weather should develop behind a
pair of cold fronts Monday. The first front will push through
the area Monday morning but will be accompanied only by a modest
airmass change. The second much stronger boundary will be
pushed through Monday evening by a powerful upper trough moving
through the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic states.
Forecast soundings show the potential for 35 mph gusts after the
frontal passage during a period of strong cold advection that
will taper off with the arrival of the thermal trough Tuesday
morning. 850 mb temps could dip as low as -4 to -5C before
rebounding Tuesday night.
During the advective part of this cold wave Monday night, steep
lapse rates and good mixing should keep lows in the mid to upper
30s area-wide. After a sunny but chilly day Tuesday with highs
in the upper 50s, winds should diminish under continued clear
skies Tuesday night. The position of the Canadian high looks a
little farther south Tuesday night compared to what I was seeing
the past few days and this could result in a little more wind.
I`m therefore not planning to hit the frost threat quite as
hard. Normal cold spots will certainly see temps dip well into
the 30s and those with agricultural interests will still want
to pay close attention to Tuesday night.
The Canadian high will push off the Southeast coast Wednesday
with daytime temperatures rebounding quickly toward 70 degrees.
A cutoff low that`s already spent a couple of days over Arizona
is shown to open up and kick eastward beginning Wednesday.
Although there are still some timing differences between models,
this could develop a surface low with Gulf moisture bringing
rain chances back to the Carolinas by Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the board will quickly become more erratic
this afternoon and continue overnight as a prefrontal trough and
weak back door cold front affect the area. For the near term
applied vcts for LBT and FLO although the lightning is waning.
Flight restrictions may wander briefly into MVFR and perhaps a
quick burst of IFR but it should be limited. Probably of more
concern is expected stratus late tonight into early Saturday
mainly along the coast. Inland sites may see more BR. Expect
MVFR conditions.
Extended Outlook...VFR late Saturday through Sunday. Sub- VFR
conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front.
VFR for the start of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
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Through Saturday...Overall expect the southwest flow currently in
place across the waters to remain through most of the overnight
hours. Speeds may increase to the higher end of a 10-15 knot range
at times. Winds may briefly turn to the north...northeast early
Saturday via a backdoor front but the push is limited and a weak
return flow should return in time. Significant seas will see a range
of 2-4 feet with most of the four footers confined to just a few
hours later tonight.
Saturday night through Wednesday...Light winds should veer
southerly even across the Cape Fear area Saturday night as
Saturday`s stalled front dissipates and lifts north. Light to
moderate southwest winds are expected Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. A weak upper level disturbance moving
along the Gulf coast Sunday should cross Georgia and South
Carolina Sunday night, accompanied by an area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should remain
south of Cape Fear, and will be well offshore before the weak cold
front arrives from the north Monday morning. This front will
shift winds offshore, but the real action will arrive Monday
evening when a second front arrives with strong northwest winds
that will almost certainly trigger a Small Craft Advisory for
25+ knot winds. Winds should diminish during the day Tuesday as
Canadian high pressure builds southeastward.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA/CRM
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA/SHK