Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301432 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1032 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE WELL INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70 IN SOME PLACES...THESE VALUES SHOULD START DROPPING. FORECAST AND OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CHS/MHX SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB. ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS THIS DRYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE...DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND MID 60D ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASING PVA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF THE 5H TROUGH...CENTERED OVER THE KY/TN VALLEYS...AND AN INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WILL HELP KICK OFF STORMS. A BROKEN LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT SURE IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ULTIMATELY REACH THE NC COAST. THE BEST PVA SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES COASTAL NC DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING. DID MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCLUDE HIGHER POP FOR INLAND AREAS. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWEST HERE THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOUND. THIS AREA IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST AND WHERE LATE DAY DEWPOINT RECOVERY WILL BE GREATEST. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES WHILE THE BULK OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREAS REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK. SOUNDS DO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNBURSTS...BE IT A SMALL CHANCE...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL IN HWO. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP ITS RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS DRIVES TEMPS TO ABOVE CLIMO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVE IN TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE OVERHEAD AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY VORTICITY MAXIMUMS. CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY FORCED...AND THE GFS SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. FOR THIS REASON WILL CUT BACK INHERITED POP A BIT WEDNESDAY AND JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE BY DAY - SCHC/SILENT AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW 90S DURING THE AFTNS...AND MID 70S OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN USUAL JULY FASHION...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGING FEATURE BEING THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL FLATTEN INTO THE WKND...WITH SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...AS WELL AS DECREASING POP EACH DAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY HOVERING ACROSS NC DURING THE WKND...BUT THIS IS NOT AGREED UPON BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR WPC...NOR IS IT SUPPORTED BY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. FOR THIS REASON WILL HEDGE AGAINST THE GFS SOLUTION AND SHOW SLIGHT WARMING EACH DAY FROM JUST ABOVE CLIMO TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN...WITH DECREASING CONVECTION CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL SHOW AT LEAST SCHC POP EACH AFTN FOR THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS. BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SW 10-15 KTS...EXCEPT S-SSW AT 15-20 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WITH SCT SKIES CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VCSH COULD DEVELOP MAINLY SC TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BUT PROGS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE IS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL INDICATE VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND UPDATE IN LATER TAFS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO SW 4-8 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE AND STRENGTHENING OF PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD MAY BRIEFLY PEAK AT 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH LYING INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL DRIVE SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS...WITH ENHANCEMENTS EACH EVENING TO 20 KTS AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS. BLEND OF INHERITED WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THE LATEST NWPS RUN BRINGS SEAS TO JUST BELOW 6 FT EACH EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. HAVE KEPT CURRENT FORECAST AT 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A SCEC IS PROBABLY THURSDAY...WITH THE SCA A POSSIBILITY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE...AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS LITTLE VARIATION IN MARINE CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS PRETTY MUCH CONSTANT. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A SE SWELL TO PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT GETS PINCHED IN THE LEE OF THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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