-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 171022
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING
OUR FAR WESTERN DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY
DOWN WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND
1.85 INCHES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY
CONFIRM THIS LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO ACTIVE
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK TREND IN
PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT
BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20 AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL
TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THINGS
RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE LETHARGIC NATURE
OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO
THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS
PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS PREFERRING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GEFS MEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON
BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE REGARDING TEMPERATURES
WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 10Z...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO OUR CWA LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION BEFORE DAWN. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MOIST
THIS AFTN...WITH PWATS NEARING/EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS FOR KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH -SHRA PERHAPS FAVORING THE COASTAL SITES.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN S/SW THRU THE PERIOD...AOB 10 KTS INLAND AND
10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5
SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER END OF A
15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES SEAS OF
2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALBEIT
BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A BERMUDA/AZORES
CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE AS ANY
EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS CONTINUE IN A 2-4
FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/MJC