Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 344 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A moisture-loaded air mass coupled with a dissipating front in the vicinity, will maintain the potential for heavier rain showers through Tuesday. A building ridge of high pressure will bring hot temperatures from mid-week into next weekend. Heat advisories and even heat warnings may be needed for the area later this week into this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Persistent flow of deep moisture continues unabated across the region from the southwest. Similar to yesterday, convection is firing inland where there has been more afternoon heating. The area of showers and thunderstorms that earlier had been expected to move across the Grand Strand and possibly Wilmington has focused more offshore while the more inland convection appears to be taking precedence as well. Will adjust the pops to reflect these latest trends. Otherwise guidance is once pointing to an overnight round of convection along the coast and have increased pops along the coastal areas in and around 06 UTC. Models continue to show another unsettled day Tuesday with similar elements in place.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Trough aloft will persist this period but in a weakening state as it begins to lift NE. This trough will try to close off as it moves slowly east, and mid-level ridging expands and amplifies from the west. As this upper low closes off and ejects NE, the heat will begin to build back into the area with highs Wednesday climbing into the low 90s well inland, upper 80s at the coast, with much more sunshine than experienced earlier in the week. Much drier air noted in forecast soundings thanks to increasing W/NW flow aloft will cap much convection, but moist soils combined with warm temps and MLCape to 1500 J/kg will allow at last isolated showers and tstms Wednesday. Best chance for convection will be along the sea breeze and piedmont trough during peak heating, but expect many places will be dry. Any convection will wane quickly after dark Wednesday night, but mins will remain warm in the mid 70s, a few degrees warmer than mins forecast for Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...A deep ridge of high pressure will build across the southeast through the long term period, which would indicate potential for hot weather through much of the long term period. There is one obstacle in the forecast which could throw off excessive heat. A cutoff low will break off from the parent trough reaching down the southeast coast. This low has been in the models for days now, but it was supposed to break off over GA on Wed and now is now still showing up but off the southeast coast on Thurs. This low will be pushed southwest as two strong ridges build into the Carolinas. One from the central CONUS and one from the Atlantic. This pesky upper low could throw off the forecast a bit but overall still going with quieter weather period due to increasing subsidence and drying aloft, as well as an increasing westerly component to the low level flow around the Atlantic ridge. The ridge should hold off any fronts to the north but could see some convective debris clouds reaching down into the area. Therefore will include potential for some higher clouds, and some aftn cu, but left mainly silent PoPs in forecast. The upper low could keep heights from rising as high as originally thought, but if this low gets squeezed south faster and allows the ridges to build over the southeast from the west and east, we could see h5 heights as high as 593 to 594 dm and 850 temps as high as 23c. Overall expect hot and humid weather with high temps between 95 and 100 through much of the period, but confidence is lower of near record or record heat with temps reaching over 100 degrees and heat warnings.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 18Z Monday...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. The persistent atmospheric river will continue to keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. High resolution guidancs shows the best chances will be this afternoon with the activity moving in currently and again late tonight around 0600. The later activity will be aligned more along the coast. With the heaviest of the activity expect some MVFR ceilings. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions will be possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through Tue, then precipitation potential decreases significantly Wed-Fri.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Light wind fields and benign seas will continue across the coastal waters through Tuesday. Expect southwest winds of ten knots or less from far reaching Bermuda high pressure. There seems to be nothing available to drive significant seas much above two feet if that. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...High pressure offshore will remaining dominant but the piedmont trough getting pushed offshore each evening thanks to developing westerly flow aloft will create a wind shift at times. Winds will predominantly be SW around 10 kts through the period, but a shift to the west is expected each evening with a slight decrease in speeds. These light winds, as well as the periodic offshore component, will allow the sea state to be ground swell driven, with seas staying 2-3 ft through the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High regains control at the surface with SW flow mainly 10 to 15 kts. Should see a spike in winds each aftn into early evening enhanced by sea breeze and lee side troughing, and winds overnight will become more offshore due to land breeze. Expect quieter weather as ridge builds aloft through late week. Seas will remain in the 2 to 4 ft range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK/CRM SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SHK

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