Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031825 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 225 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND DCAPE UP TO 1100. OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NEARLY EAST- WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE H5 TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH SOME DURING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EVOLVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE ATYPICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES NOT STAND OUT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF EACH DAY. AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SATURDAY IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS COMPARED TO FRIDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNSETTLED...BUT DEVOID OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOTED IN 500MB PROGS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWER PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO JUST UNDER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY WHILE THE MINS REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR. AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING ...MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR WATERS FOR A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 3 FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS DURING MONDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNING TO THE AREA. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT DURING MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR

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