000
FXUS62 KILM 161733
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
133 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...WITH A MUCH WARMER START THIS
MORNING...TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THE SAME TIME. ON TRACK FOR A VERY WARM SUMMER LIKE DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST PLACES. A
GREATER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP THE HEATING PROCESS AND SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE
PINNED ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH...THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD TO FILTER OUT THE SUN AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES BUT MAY
BECOME PINCHED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES...THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH ONLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT...MAINLY ABOVE H30. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND KEEPING ANY PCP WEST OF FORECAST AREA.

SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS THE FORECAST FOCUS TO SURFACE FEATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...BUT
WEAKENING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL NC LATE FRI.
AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF NO LONGER BRINGS IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND
THE GFS HAS REMAINING CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. LATEST NAM/CANADIAN ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE A VERY LIMITED IMPACT
ON THE REGION CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
OUTFLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND
WESTERLY FLOW ON FRI WILL HINDER AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WELL AS
KEEP SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONABLE POP
BUT TRIM BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. SAT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING ON SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH BY MIDDAY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A
LITTLE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DIURNAL CHC POP.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRI WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SAT GIVEN MORE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXPECTED
ALONG WITH FURTHER INLAND PENETRATION OF SEABREEZE. LOWS IN THE MID
60S ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...ILL DEFINED MID LEVEL PATTERN AND WEAK SURFACE
FEATURES LEAD TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH
SETS UP AND THEN STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCH FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND APPROACH 2 INCHES AT TIMES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEABREEZE COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST...HINDERING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BECOMING BKN IN NATURE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BKN/OVC SKY COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT...WITH FEW
MID CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR OUR
NC WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND SW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. SEAS FOR OUR SC WATERS ARE MORE IN THE 2 TO
4 FT RANGE WITH SW WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KT. WINDS JUST BEYOND OUR
LOCAL WATERS OUT BEYOND 20 NM WERE UP CLOSER TO 25 KT BUT WITHIN
WATERS JUST SEEING 15 TO 20 KTS MAX. HAVE ADDED HIGHER GUSTS TO
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORCE.
SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT FRI WILL LEAD TO WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15
KT WHILE ON SAT 10 TO 15 KT IS MORE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRI. AT THIS
POINT THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD IT DROP FARTHER SOUTH WINDS WOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SAT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI MAY SUBSIDE
A LITTLE FOR SAT...DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH BERMUDA HIGH THE
MAIN FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT BOTH DAYS. SPEEDS MON MAY BE
MARGINALLY HIGHER AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT ON SUN EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT MON IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL