Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 271348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. The
chance of showers will increase as well, as moisture from the
tropics moves across the area early next week. A strong cold
front is expected to move across the region late this week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 945 AM Saturday...No changes to the ongoing forecast as
mainly clear skies continue over the forecast area. The former
circulation of Fiona south of Bermuda contained winds near 35 mph
east of the center per aircraft measurement last night, so it will
be interesting to see what transpires today as this feature moves
west toward the Carolinas taking in the dry air aloft. The
previous forecast discussion follows.
A gleaming start to Saturday shaping up with a clear early
morning view of a waning crescent moonrise, signaling clear skies
to the east. A surface ridge axis positioned SW to NE across the
area was resulting in a relaxed pressure and wind regime. Vapor
movies shows an upper ridge north of the region with an embedded
impulse currently positioned across eastern VA and the Delmarva
coast. Vad Wind Profile this morning shows 30-40 KT mid- level NE
flow, which will usher deepening H7 moisture today. As this
impulse is driven SW today, a shower or TSTM may pop over Bladen
or Robeson county in the middle afternoon, spreading SW into the
SC interior in the late afternoon. Convection may linger tonight
along the I-95 corridor as a secondary upper wave transits the
interior overnight. Maximums above normal today, middle 90s over
the deeper interior and lower 90s across the coastal interior in a
light onshore wind. Min temps daybreak Sunday 71-74, 75-77 at the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Primary headline this period is a
transition to a tropical influence as the circulation of former
Fiona drifts landward toward the Cape Fear region late in the
period Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will be watched
closely over the next few days. The other tropical item of note
remains arrival of long period swell from the Gaston wind-field on
Sunday. Wave amplitude will remain low, but could build to 2 ft
every 13-14 seconds Monday, prompting an significant rip current
risk. Pop values increase gradually through the period as the
tropical influence does so, especially late in the period as PWAT
values begin to notably rise.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Increasing tropical moisture across the
area along with persistent on shore flow will produce an increase
in shwrs/tstms through mid week. Looks like the combination of
moisture remnants from Fiona along with tropical wave/low reaching
up from the south, as well as, weakening ridge moving north away
from Carolinas will produce plenty of clouds and more widespread
shower activity especially along and just off the coast on Tues
into Wed. GFS shows greatest pcp water values up over 2 inches
located over area Tues night into Wed. By Thurs this moisture
should be pushed off to the east as mid to upper trough pushes a
cold front into the Carolinas. The winds will shift around to the
N-NW on back end of tropical wave/low which may help to advect in
some drier air but overall expect front to produce enhanced
convective activity, mainly farther south over South Carolina by
Summerlike temps in the mid 80s to 90 should take a dip heading
into end of period down into the mid 80s.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...Any MVFR vsbys at the KLBT/KFLO terminals will improve
to VFR around 12Z. Predominately VFR through this evening at all
terminals. Light northeast winds will become E-SE 5-15 kts as the
day progresses, highest southern coastal terminals. Shower or
thunderstorms are possible after noontime, mainly from KILM-
KLBT, then south to KFLO. Due to sparse coverage think the chance
of sub VFR with any activity is low.
There is an increasing chance of MVFR/IFR after midnight. Winds
will initially be light NE allowing for fog to develop. Then as
wind speeds further increase vsbys should improve as the fog is
lifted, but this could result in the development of a sct-bkn
LIFR/IFR stratus layer.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as
tropical moisture/shower potential increases.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Saturday...Latest obs show combined seas in the 4
ft range. The early morning update did raise seas by a foot to
cover this, so no further changes were needed with the mid-morning
update. Relevant portion of previous discussion follows:
Light winds and manageable seas prevail today and tonight. Seas
of 3-4 feet slightly elevated in ESE waves 2-3 ft every 11
seconds originating from circulation of former Fiona. This should
slowly decay to 9 seconds overnight. Light onshore winds today and
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Decent marine conditions will prevail
this period in terms of welcoming light winds, generally NE-E
Sunday and Monday. Increasing swell waves may elevate sea heights
to 4 ft Monday night, and an increase in showers and TSTMS can be
expected, as a tropical disturbance, and what was once Fiona,
approaches Cape Fear late Monday night. Mariners should monitor
the latest forecasts regarding this feature.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Diminishing longer period E-SE swells, up
to 14 seconds, will mix in with E-NE wind waves through the
period. Overall expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range and seas 2
to 4 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --