Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280740 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 110 AM TUESDAY...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS PARTICULARLY THE 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL...AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL VSBY PROJECTION...ALL INDICATE THE CURRENT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE FA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUESDAY HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................. AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...WHILE WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A COOL AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT THE TIME THE SUN SETS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP. DESPITE DEWPOINTS PLUNGING INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW LAYER OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE HAS HUNG OUT ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN HERE AT 3 PM DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 60 IN THE GEORGETOWN VICINITY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE GRAND STRAND BEACHES. THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING IN THE VEERING FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE LAYER SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 500-700 FEET THICK ACROSS THE WILMINGTON AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1200-1500 FT DEPTH ACROSS FLORENCE AND THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS PROBABLY THICK ENOUGH TO DEVELOP FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS INLAND LATE TONIGHT. USING THE NAM 975 MB RH GRID AS A GUIDE...I AM FORECASTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM GEORGETOWN AND MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MARION AND FLORENCE INTO HARTSVILLE AND BENNETTSVILLE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS WILMINGTON AND BURGAW THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE HERE MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 50-55...COOLEST FROM LAKE WACCAMAW TO BURGAW...AND WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ONE LAST WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH RAISED THICKNESSES BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE TO DRIVE WARM ADVECTION AND CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED...ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE COOLER OCEAN TEMPS WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE COAST LOWER...BUT A WARM DAY EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH FOR SOME TIME HOWEVER. COLD FRONT RACES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS PUSHED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND PWATS RISE ONLY MARGINALLY...SOME QPF IS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE THE RAIN IS NEEDED LOCALLY...THE FORECAST LOW QPF WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY BENEFICIAL. STILL...THE FRONT SIGNALS A SIGNIFICANT AIR-MASS CHANGE AND TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST. IT WILL NOT BE A WASH OUT BY ANY STRETCH...BUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. MINS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF/ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ON HALLOWEEN...BUT THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FIRST TRULY COLD AIR OF THE SEASON. LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REASSERT ITSELF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY IS QUITE POTENT...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH IT MAY CREATE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN NIGHT. COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED FRIDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 600MB AND PWATS STAY RATHER LOW. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. MORE IMPRESSIVELY HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLD ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE BRINGS COLD AIR WITH IT...AS EVIDENCED BY 925MB TEMPS DROPPING 8-10C DURING EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS TO NEAR JANUARY-LEVELS...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE FIRST COLD OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE STRETCH...WHEN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA SHOULD DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE WKND WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. ON MONDAY THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...THEY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...PRIMARILY AT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS ACROSS THE ILM SC TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED TO DENSE FOG AND EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. LOOKING AT DENSE FOG TO FINALLY OVERTAKE KLBT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE...WITH KILM POSSIBLY TO REMAIN DENSE FOG FREE. LATEST HRRR MODEL ILLUSTRATES ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VSBY AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE EARLY THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KILM. WILL FOLLOW THE HRRR OUTPUT THIS AM GIVEN ITS OVERALL PERFORMANCE WITH IDENTIFYING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ITS PROGRESSION FROM LAST EVENING. THE FG/BR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 1330Z...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE...CALM WINDS EARLY AM WILL BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY INDUCED SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BACKING TO SSE-SSW AOB 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WED AM. SHOWERS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WED/EARLY THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:45 PM MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SEAS OF UNDER 2 FT PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE...BUT WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING NOW WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ENHANCING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. COMBINED SEAS ARE ONLY 1-2 FEET IN A COMBINATION OF A TINY WIND CHOP AND TWO SMALL 10 SECOND SWELL COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE DRIVES RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN NORTH...BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AT 10-15 KTS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASE SLOWLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WED/THU WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND-WAVE DRIVEN...WITH A SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING 2-3 FT SEAS WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN WAVE AMPLITUDES BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL AMPLIFY DURING THURSDAY...CAUSING SEAS TO RISE TO 2-4 FT LATE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...N/NW WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE CONSISTENTLY 10-15 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT...AND N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 25 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES CONFINED NEAR THE 20NM BOUNDARY...BUT WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO 4-6 FT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-053>056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096- 099-109-110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/BJR MARINE...DCH/REK/JDW

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