Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281918 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 318 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Heat wave continues and the upper ridge will for one more day quash any convection. Excessive Heat Warning continues for the Cape Fear region and while ILM ASOS has shown falling dewpoints all day most mesonet sites have not and feel that the Warning is likely verifying for the most part. This may be some local effect as the ASOS is in such an open field. Even so, KLTX showing the marine layer creeping into the area and dewpoints are likely to rise. Any place within the Warning seems fair game to meet criteria between now and about 6 pm. The Warning goes till 8 mainly to avoid having to "step down" to an Advisory for just a few hours this evening. Tonight will be muggy with lows in the mid 70s inland to around 80 most coastal locales. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...While not exactly a refreshing cooldown by any means there actually may not be any heat products needed tomorrow. Piedmont trough pushes east enough to advect the higher dewpoints offshore. Heat indices generally in the 100-104 range. The mid level ridge is also beaten down by broad, weakly cyclonic belt of westerlies across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This means that a few spots may actually be able to support some diurnal convection. The Cape Fear area sea breeze appears to have the best shot while a secondary max should be far NW zones in association with the trough. Places farther south still look too capped. Saturday is starting to look interesting. The Piedmont trough closes off a weak low and forecast soundings show a lessening of the mid level dry air that has been so instrumental in squelching convection. Also interesting is that guidance shows that afternoon temperatures get warmer again and we are looking at a Heat Advisory again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Mid level pattern will have transitioned to troughing by the start of the period, with the strength of the 5h trough increasing slightly Mon and Tue. A cold front will move into the region during the middle of next week but this feature is likely to stall just north and west of the area. This will leave the Piedmont trough and the daily sea breeze, along with the Bermuda High, as the most significant surface features during the period. Mid level cooling and deep moisture, PWATs will be around 2 inches Sun into Tue, will lead to a steady increase in precip chances Sun and Mon. Likely pop is warranted across the region Mon and Mon night before the mid level axis moves overhead Tue. The trough axis brings an increase in dry air aloft and weak downward motion, causing a decreasing trend in precip chances for the middle of the week. Pop will still be on the high side Tue as deep moisture holds on but by Wed PWATs drop down near 1.5 inch and remain there through Thu. Temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above climo Sun and Mon will trend back to climo for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR through the valid TAF cycle. Runway gusts to 19 KT between W and SW through 0z. WSW-SW winds diminishing to 8 KT or less coastal terminals AFT 1z, and 3-5 KT inland airports. AFT 15z Friday, W-WSW gusts 17-19 KT, Tonight, ISOLD 5SM BR BTWN 09z- 12z inland, although anticipated coverage and confidence level does not warrant inclusion at terminals. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. ISOLD/SCT afternoon convection Sunday and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...A low level jet will develop tonight and add to the gustiness if not outright add a few kt of sustained wind speeds. This could open up sea height forecast just a bit to include some offshore 4 footers. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Southwesterly flow continues between high pressure and the Bermuda high. Low level jet from the near term will persist but also weaken and move further offshore. This could cause the 4 ft seas to drop out of the forecast. Saturday looks like a bit of a repeat with light SW flow through the day and then a nocturnal jet at night that kicks up the winds and may even feature a return of 4 ft seas. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Marine conditions will continue to be driven by the interaction of the Piedmont trough and the Bermuda High. SOuthwest flow will continue through the period with speeds closer to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to a solid 15 kt in the afternoon and evening. Seas continue to run 2 to 4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053>056. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-110. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096- 099-105>109. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC

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