Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200250 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 950 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COASTS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DISTURBED WEATHER RISING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING MILDER...BUT WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW AND STEADY DECLINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA IS EXTENDING NORTHEAST...AND THE RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE TOUCHED 50 IN KINGSTREE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE REMAINED IN THE 45-48 DEGREE RANGE AS EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. FORTUNATELY SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE HELPED EASE THE COLD SOMEWHAT TODAY...BUT IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE WINTER...WHICH DOESN`T TECHNICALLY BEGIN FOR ANOTHER MONTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OR JUST NORTH TONIGHT...AND FORECAST PROFILES DEPICT SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION...SUGGESTING SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS. CLOUDINESS IS QUITE LIMITED BENEATH THAT FEATURE PRESENTLY...AND COLUMN MOISTURE DOES NOT INCREASE DRAMATICALLY...SO DO NOT THINK IT WILL REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE FORECAST MINS A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN...WITH MID 20S WIDESPREAD INLAND...TO LOW 30S RIGHT ON THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 50S...BUT THIS STILL REPRESENTS READINGS 6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 20/21. STEADY HEIGHT RISES WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXIMUMS FRIDAY BUT STRENGTHENING N-NE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH...BUT PASSES WEST OF THE AREA WILL CLIP TEMPERATURES RISES FRIDAY...CAPPING IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND AND TIME-MODERATION OF THE PRESENT AIR-MASS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY SHOULD BE 7-11 DEGREES F MILDER THAN TOMORROW AT DAYBREAK. CIRRUS THURSDAY YES...BUT A DRY COLUMN WILL KEEP US RAIN/SNOW FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH REGARDS TO THE SCENARIO FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A RIVER OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN BELT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I DID EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND CITING THE STABILITY OF THE GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN SHIFTS TO THE DEEP SOUTHWEST ALMOST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EMBEDDED JET STREAKS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN JET AND WILL KICK OFF AREAS OF SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS THE AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD GIVING MOST OF THE AREA ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT OFFSHORE. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY DECREASING A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM BY 03Z. THURSDAY...CONTINUED VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP BY NOON WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED...GUSTY AT TIMES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS 10 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE NOW LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SEAS UNDER 2 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT BENEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW LATE. EVEN WITH THESE LIGHT WINDS...SEAS SHOULD RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE LONGER FETCH ENCOUNTERED BY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FROM THE PRESENT 1-2 FT...TO 2-3 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS WEST WINDS APPROACH 20 KT...THEN SHIFTS TO NORTH EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHIPS BY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS SEAS BUILD UNDER BLUSTERY 20 KT NE WINDS. SEAS A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND SW-W CHOP THURSDAY THEN GROWING ENE-NE WAVES OF 3-5 FT FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING THU/FRI ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIAL NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS PERSISTING WHILE THE DIRECTION TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. HERE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL START OUT THE PERIOD MANAGEABLE WITH 2-3 FEET SATURDAY. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALL WATERS WILL BE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OR GREATER WITH SOME 6-9 FEET POSSIBLE. SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY BUT A GOOD 4-7 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MJC/REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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