Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300526 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 125 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...A DECAYING FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEST SEEN WITH THE SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT...AND ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR...ALL COMBINED WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH OF LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR FEW-SCT CU TO SPORADICALLY DEVELOP AS SEEN VIA LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY. AVBL CAPE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF NVA ALOFT VIA LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT LET ALONE IT DEVELOPING TO BEGIN WITH. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE AGAIN RE-ALIGNED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD FIELD BASED ON LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY TRENDS. AS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE AND INDICATE MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA...LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVENTHOUGH...THE IMMEDIATE COAST HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT STALLING JUST INLAND...TONIGHTS COASTAL LOWS ARE STILL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED EACH NIGHT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC. AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A MID- LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH/VCTS LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KT OR LESS AND FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY THIS MORNING...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VCSH/VCTS AS SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...THUS HAVE KEPT IN GOING FORECAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO REMAIN ALIGNED NE-SW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... TONIGHT THRU TUE. THIS A RESULT OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINING INLAND...RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT PARALLELING THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED SW-NE OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. LOOK FOR INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THESE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM CROSS INTO THE LOCAL WATERS VICINITY OFF CAPE FEAR. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND WEAK TO MODEST GRADIENT TO YIELD SW 10-15 KT WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT CLOSER TO 20 NM OUT. THE IMMEDIATE OFFSHORE WATERS PARALLELING THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. DOMINATE PERIODS WILL RUN 7 TO 8 SECONDS...THUS NEARLY BEING IDENTIFIED AS A PSEUDO SOUTHERLY GROUND SWELL...WITH A LOCAL SW WIND CHOP ON TOP OF THIS PSEUDO SWELL. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL 5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/RAN

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