Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020732 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 332 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE STALLING NEARBY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LONG-ANTICIPATED CHANGE TO THE ONGOING DRY PATTERN IN STORE BEGINNING TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER AT THE UPPER LEVELS AN ADVANCING H/5 TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COOL AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPLY MOISTENED COLUMN AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW POPS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROJECTED QPF VALUES ON THE MODEST SIDE...RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH NEAR THE COAST TO ABOUT THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH INLAND THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...SO AS OF NOW NOT TOO KEEN ON FORMER HEAVY RAIN WORDING. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT BEING FROM LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN A BIT AS IT REACHES OVERHEAD BY FRI MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH OR REFLECTION OF UPPER LOW AND ALONG SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE AND ANY OTHER LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MID WEEK. STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK AND THEREFORE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DRIVING THE SHWRS/TSTMS LENDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MAY BE TOUGH TO TIME EXACT PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WHICH WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LENDING TO A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER SPOTS. OVERALL EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST WITH DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT SMALLER DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 80 DURING THE DAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER AS CUTOFF MOVES CLOSER OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW SHOULD OPEN UP TO TROUGH AS IT WEAKENS SLOWLY REACHING OVERHEAD FRI MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRI AFTN AS IT BEGINS TO SLIP OFF THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND FROM THE NORTH BUT LOOKS LIKE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG AROUND NEARBY AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. A DEEPER NW FLOW ON THE BACK END OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FLOW FLATTENS OUT. EXPECT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND LOCALIZED SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE LOCALIZED FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME BRIGHTENING OF SKIES. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY MON MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT EAST MON INTO TUES WITH INCREASED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND ALONG FRONT. AFTER A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM START TO THE LONG TERM...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM IN INCREASING SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHTS AS CUT OFF LOW DEPARTS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT GIVEN LINGERING LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. VFR ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE SHRA/TSRA TRAINED THIS EVENING. THIS WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS...AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES. ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A VERY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL STAY IN THEIR CURRENT 2 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AS CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER WESTERN CAROLINAS SHIFTS EAST REACHING THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY FRI MORNING. OVERALL GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING FOR MORE VARIABLE WINDS ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE REFLECTION TO LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS. LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WED MORNING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WED EVEN AND THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE TO N-NW BY END OF PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FRI MORNING WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A LINGERING FRONT TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FRI MORNING TO SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. BY SATURDAY WINDS MAY COME AROUND TO THE SE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND FRONT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY 3 FT OR LESS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK/SGL

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