Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141722 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1222 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable weather returns this afternoon and will last through the weekend with only a brief cool down on Saturday. Low pressure approaching from the Gulf will bring an increasing chance of rain, and a warming trend through early next week. A cold front will push through the area by mid week with drier weather to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Thursday...sunny skies today over out part of the world with very dry conditions aloft with precipitable waters of 0.25 to 0.36 inches. At the surface the 24 hours dewpoint change is around 12 degrees along the coast. The brisk winds overnight will continue to weaken by the afternoon. With the westerly flow high temperatures are expected to reach into the 60 -63 range this afternoon. High pressure will build down behind cold front through tonight with a light northerly flow reaching down into the Carolinas. As winds drop off tonight, expect better radiational cooling conditions with only a few clouds expected. This will produce a cool night with temps dropping into the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Some changes in the longwave pattern aloft this period, with the question of whether it becomes established for a time. The large amplitude upper trough affecting the FA at the start of this week, has mellowed out by the time this period commences. Models indicate active northern and southern branches of the jet stream that will meet overhead across the FA at the start of this period but then models have the northern stream retreat back to the Mid-Atlantic states and the NE States by the end of this period. This leaves the southern branch of the jetstream to expand northward. At the sfc, models indicate a stalled front well south and east of the FA at the start of this period. A s/w mid-level flow tracking east-southeast will develop a sfc low just off the Carolina Coasts early Fri along with it`s associated frontal system. The sfc low will accelerate northeast away from the FA Fri aftn and night. Progged Sounding moisture profiles indicate some mid and upper level moisture however, the low levels remain dry. As a result, will continue with no pcpn. In it`s wake, clearing skies with CAA occurring across the FA thru early Sat before becoming Neutral. This will just re- enforce the cold air across the FA from the recent CFP prior to this period. Thus, temperatures for both days will near the seasonable norms for this time period with mins at or just below the norms and the maxes at or just above the norms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...Expect a warming trend into early next week, as ridging aloft ensues. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing and strength of ejected Baja short-wave Sunday, but both agree on a milder and wetter pattern after the weekend. The first chance of rain by Sunday night, as this features ejects offshore early Monday. Despite ECMWF/GFS differences thresholdswith sea heights up to 4 to 7 ft across the local waters. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until noon today. This tightened gradient flow ahead of a weak cold front will diminish this afternoon to 10 to 15 kts as winds veering around to the west. As high pressure builds down behind the front tonight, winds will veer further to the N-NW. Monday into Tuesday, it seems we can infer a mild pattern prevailing and rain chances ahead of an upper trough, that in both models appears along the east coast next Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...High confidence of VFR through 15/18Z. With just a few- sct cirrus to the S this afternoon, surface winds will be SW-WSW 5- 10 kt. 22-23Z a low level inversion will develop decreasing winds to variable 0-3 kt, although winds could continue @KMYR at times this evening and overnight from the SW aob 4 kt. A cold front will cross KLBT this evening, and move to near a KFLO/KILM line overnight. Winds with the front should remain aob 4 kt. Mid/high level clouds expected along the front with cigs above 10k at times @ KLBT overnight. Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR Monday associated with a low pressure system moving across the Southeast.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 940 AM Thursday...west winds have come down slight from overnight. Winds at the CMAN and buoys showing winds ranging from 15 knots at the coast to 21 kt at Frying Pan Shoals with the warmer water. The seas have come down to 3.3 ft 10 miles off Wrightsville Beach but are running 7.5 at Frying Pan Shoals. So will continue with Small Craft Advisory through noon for the higher seas generally at 15 to 20 miles off the coast. The seas will subside in this weakening off shore flow down to 2 to 4 ft by late this afternoon and will continue to gradually decreasing through tonight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Friday thru Friday night will be the more active time period for winds and significant seas due to sfc low development just offshore that deepens as it accelerates northeast away from the local waters Fri night. Looking at SW-W winds increasing during Fri to SCEC levels, then veering to the NW-NNW at SCEC levels Fri night as the sfc low accelerates away. For Sat thru Sat night, no caution or advisories expected. Winds will drop to 10 kt or less during Sat aftn and to around 5 kt Sat night as the center of sfc high pressure moves overhead. Significant seas will maximize at 3 to 5 ft Fri aftn and evening followed by a subsiding trend for the remainder of this period to less than 2 ft. Wind driven waves will dominate Fri thru daytime Sat with periods at 4 to 5 seconds. An easterly 1 foot ground swell at 9 to 10 second periods will dominate toward the end of this period as wind induced waves subside. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...A manageable marine period. No advisories are expected as weak high pressure moves farther offshore on Sunday. SW-W winds expected Monday as high pressure settles offshore and SE of the waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...MRR

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