Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 141040 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 640 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm, dry weather through Sunday. A cold front accompanied by scattered showers will move overhead Monday, bringing cooler temperatures Monday night through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Very pleasant conditions will continue through the near term period. Mid level high pressure, centered well off to the southwest will combine with surface high pressure along the Appalachians to provide these conditions. There is an area of lingering stratus pushing south this morning that may hang on in the northeastern areas through part of today, but even this moisture should mix out eventually. Highs today will be in a narrow range of 80-83 with tonights lows in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...The 500 mb ridge will break down Sunday night and Monday as a trough advances into the eastern United States. Sunday looks like our last breath of summer-like weather as highs soar into the mid 80s away from the beaches with a bubble of 850 mb temps of +17C to +18C overhead. Climatology suggests this might be the last time this year we reach the mid 80s. Moisture will begin to increase late Sunday night as the trough approaches, but it will likely be Monday before measurable rain falls across the area. Modest convective instability coupled with low-level convergence along the front itself should be enough to produce showers. PoPs have been increased a bit to 50-60 percent, peaking Monday afternoon. Model isentropic analysis does not show any significant overrunning behind the front which gives us confidence there will be a fairly quick shutoff of precip late Monday afternoon or Monday evening. Cold advection at and below the 850 mb level Monday night will bring in the coolest air of the season, most likely exceeding the cool temperatures we experienced September 7-10 by several degrees. We`re predicting lows Monday night ranging from 48-52 inland, with mid 50s at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 242 PM Friday...Central caption this period remains the arrival of Fall-like air late Monday into Tuesday in wake of a cold frontal passage. The cooling will serve to align absolute humidity and air temperatures more in line with climatology for middle October, but not necessarily cooler than `normal`. This period is essentially dry, except for a brief and narrow window of PCPN opportunity Monday in vicinity of the cold front, when a transitory spike in column moisture makes passage. It should be noted that QPF values associated with the front will remain nil to scant, likely a tenth of an inch or less. As a result, it seems fortunate we have recently received the rainfall that we did, because a prolonged dry period appears in the cards next week. The NE-E flow much of the upcoming week will spread a few maritime clouds from time to time as depicted in time-height plots of RH, but bouts of sunshine minutes will rack-up also. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 11Z...A solid deck of low stratus covers most of North Carolina and a good portion of South Carolina. Cloud bases are generally near or just above 1000 feet AGL, with some areas of IFR ceilings present across eastern North Carolina. This cloud deck is sliding southward at about 7 knots currently, and this should lock in MVFR ceilings through at least 15-16Z for most airports in our area. The first airports to break out should be MYR/CRE where the cloud edge is nearest and clouds are likely thinnest given warmer air bleeding in from the ocean. A weak seabreeze may develop here as well this afternoon which should help cloud ceilings to break between 16-18Z. Elsewhere, particularly at ILM, it may take until 18-20Z to get clouds to fragment significantly. Moisture from this cloud cover will not leave the area, and with calm winds anticipated tonight look for visibilities (and possibly ceilings) to drop to IFR after 08Z. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible again Sunday morning from reduced ceilings and/or vsby. Isolated to scattered MVFR/IFR produced convection is possible on Monday ahead of a strong cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Very quiet conditions have developed across the coastal waters this morning with winds now down in the single digits. A north to northeast flow of ten knots or less will continue for the next several hours via high pressure over the Appalachians. The flow weakens further this afternoon leaving a flow driven by a weak sea breeze. The direction will slowly work its way back to northeast by Sunday morning. Seas are currently 2-4 feet and should remain so through the short term period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 300 AM Saturday...Weak high pressure across the area Sunday will provide one last day of excellent coastal and beach weather. Light winds, dry weather, and unseasonably warm temperatures may be the last echo of summer we see for awhile. A reasonably strong cold front sliding southeastward through the Midwest on Sunday should reach the Carolina coastal waters Monday. The GFS model is faster than the NAM and suggests a morning frontal passage. By Monday afternoon winds should be northerly and will increase to 20-25 kt by Monday night as cool Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 242 PM Friday...A difficult and rough marine period shaping up this time frame, as a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon to evening, opens the door to strong NE winds Monday night and Tuesday, before abating somewhat Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely through at least Tuesday. Seas following the front will peak Tuesday at 4-8 feet, highest offshore and north of Cape Fear, lowest along inshore waters of Brunswick county. Cannot rule out 30 kt gusts given the warm SSTs aiding in mixing of stronger 975 mb wind barbs to the sea surface. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...TRA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.