Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251437 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough near the coast will interact with tropical moisture to produce a few showers and thunderstorms through early Monday. Another weak front may bring a few showers or a thunderstorm on Tuesday, followed by drier and cooler air through mid-week. A warming trend will develop late week through next weekend along with returning humidity. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Sunday...Some conflicting signals maybe developing in this morning`s guidance. The front has made some progress across the CWA, now through Florence and Lumberton despite the latter`s lack of wind shift. This is a bit quicker than even the latest 12Z WRF, though it seems the boundary has likely about ground to a halt. Now to figure out where this setup will yield the best rain chances. Ostensibly they should be along and ahead of the front as per the current forecast. The WRF has come in with an interesting solution however showing little to none as expected (save for Gtown Cty) through evening and then blows up activity along and behind the boundary tonight. Unless the 12Z GFS and/or some SREF data starts supporting this the forecast will remain as-is in showing mainly a diurnal convective signal slightly favoring coastal areas ahead of the boundary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Sunday...Heating and marginal moisture may produce a sea breeze shower Monday but Tuesday appears to offer better chances of rain, as an upper trough axis brings short-wave energy and deepening mositure late in the day Tuesday. Cool air advection will follow this feature into early Wednesday and few cool spots daybreak Wednesday may even dip into the very upper 50s. Expect lower dewpoints into mid-week as well, removing the muggy edge to the air. Exceptionally dry air aloft will arrive. No severe weather signatures in the cards for Monday/Tuesday and low level winds will remain weak during this time frame. Tuesday will be the warmest day with downslope wind flow ahead of a short-wave passage late in the day.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday...Longwave 5h trough over the eastern CONUS at the start of the period lifts east-northeast Wed. Surface high building in from the north will move overhead Wed and off the coast by Thu. As the Bermuda High sets back up Thu the pattern aloft will transition from flat/progressive flow late Wed into Thu to weak, but strengthening 5h ridging over the western Atlantic late in the week. Arrival of the 5h trough will be accompanied by an anomalously dry airmass. Forecast soundings drop precipitable water values under half an inch Tue night into Wed. The exiting trough and then the building 5h ridge will produce a significant amount of subsidence through at least Thu which, combined with dry air, should keep the region dry. Moisture starts to creep back in Fri as the surface and mid level ridge setup in a more typical summer time location. Moisture return may not be enough to support much more than isolated sea breeze convection on Fri. Coverage will increase Sat with both the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough becoming more active. Temps early in the period will run about 5 degrees below climo as an unseasonably cool and dry air mass builds in. Development of return flow Thu will return temperatures to climo late in the period.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1020z...A mixed bag this period, initially areas of IFR cigs across inland terminals becoming MVFR to VFR after 14Z. Surface trough inland and ample moisture will set the stage for scattered showers and TSTMS into the afternoon hours as heating gears up. This will produce areas of MVFR ceilings and VSBYS and will persist until middle evening before coverage and intensity decrease. Overnight areas of IFR ceilings inland as low level saturation and wet ground conspire. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms early Monday and again Tuesday during the afternoon hours.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Sunday...No changes to the forecast at this time. As of 3 AM Sunday...Winds and seas are in a much more summer like pattern this morning unlike this time last night when a strong low level jet was in place. Currently a southwest flow of 10-15 knots is in place with seas of 2-4 feet is being reported and this should more or less continue through the forecast period. Winds may actually drop a little more according to most guidance. The southerly component should remain however as a front well to the west will have a difficult time moving across the waters. Seas will drop to a more narrow range of 2-3 feet. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Sunday...Changeable winds this period but it won`t be a problem since speeds will hold at 15 KT or less. A series of weak cold fronts will bring N winds, with winds veering briefly ahead of each front. Seas should hold in a 2-3 foot range this period and likely closer to 2 feet, in a mix of weak SE swell and light to moderate chop. Showers or a storm will impact mainly the outer waters this period and mostly Monday and Monday night. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Northeast flow Tue following passage of a cold front prior to the start of the period will continue into Wed. Northeast flow starts a slow veering trend later Wed, becoming easterly Wed night and ultimately southeast on Thu. Gradient will remain weak for much of the period with speeds 10 kt or less. Exception will Tue night when a surge of cooler air spreading down the coast pushes northeast flow close to 15 kt. Seas will be around 2 ft through the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB/MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC

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