Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280208 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1008 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL ACCELERATE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ASIDE FROM STREAMER CUMULUS PLUMES PEELING OFF THE CAPES POSSIBLY TRIPPED OFF BY WEAK FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. AS CRISTOBAL EDGES AWAY OVERNIGHT A LIGHT W-NW WIND SHOULD HOLD THESE CLOUDS OVER THE SEA AND WILL HOLD ONTO A CLEAR FORECAST. LOWER DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE DRYNESS MAY PREVENT PATCHES OF FOG FROM GAINING A FOOTHOLD. THUS NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE FOG/MIST. THE PREVIOUS EVENING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE COLUMN ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC SEABOARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CRISTOBAL...NOW AROUND 400 MILES ENE OF CAPE FEAR TURNING NE. SWELLS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL RIPPLE AND SWIRL OUR SURF-ZONE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS SETTLE TO A NORMAL LATE AUGUST BERMUDA HIGH REGIME. GREAT NEWS AS THE RIP THREAT WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY INTO THE PEAK OF LABOR DAY POPULOUS AND BEACH ACTIVITIES. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL UNDERGO CHANGES OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD SURROUNDING CRISTOBAL PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A LIGHT OFFSHORE MAINLY WEST WIND TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AND INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD ALLOW EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING INTO EARLY THU AND PATCHES OF GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY VERY EARLY. MINS SETTLING INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S...TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE FA THRUOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN AND DOMINATE ACROSS THE SE STATES THIS PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES A STAB AT DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ILM CWA THIS PERIOD...BUT NEVER MAKES IT DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH BASICALLY STOPS ALL FORWARD MOMENTUM OF THIS BACKDOOR FRONT. ONLY AFFECT FOR THE ILM CWA WILL BE POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO THIN BROKEN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND ALSO LIKELY ONLY AFFECTING THE ILM NC COUNTIES AT ITS FURTHEST SOUTHWARD PUSH. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ILLUSTRATE THESE CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SREF HAS NOW INDICATED CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRI WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE ATM WILL BE WARMING. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH THE FA LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 90S FOR BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LEANED TOWARD THE HOTTER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES...AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT INTO SUN AS SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST EXTENDS SOUTH. DEEP MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SAT AND SUN BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCH THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER EAST NEXT WEEK AND STARTS TO WEAKEN. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPS PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ON MON AND REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH HELPING GENERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL PATTERN ARE ILL DEFINED SO ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AREAS IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS DURING ANY GIVEN DAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THOUGH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO CHURN OFFSHORE...IT WILL KEEP ITS PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THUS NOT CREATING ANY AVIATION IMPACTS. THOUGH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS QUITE DRY...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THUS WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG. ON THURSDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI AND SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR N COAST AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT AND WIND ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO THU. CRISTOBAL SWELLS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED TO SWELL FROM THIS STORM. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AT INLET ENTRANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FALLING TIDE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRESIDE WITH THE HURRICANE FAR TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. WINDS TENDING TO WEST 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THURSDAY AS CRISTOBAL LOOSENS IT`S PRESSURE PATTERN GRIP ON THE 0-20NM WATERS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE NE THIS PERIOD...PULLING WELL OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE HIGH SEAS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL BE LOOKING AT SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AFFECTING THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL MAINLY YIELD OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KT THU...BECOMING SW 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THU AFTN AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE WIND 10-15 KT FRI INTO FRI NITE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECLINE THU AS THE BACKSWELL FROM CRISTOBAL AFFECTS THE AREA WATERS. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUBSIDE SEAS TOO QUICKLY WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT TAKE THIS ROUTE...ESPECIALLY AFTER CHURNING AND BURNING FOR SEVERAL DAYS LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE BAHAMAS. LOOKING AT SIG SEAS TO START AT 2 TO 4 FT...POSSIBLY A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR DURING THE 1ST PART OF THU. SIG. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THU NIGHT THRU FRI. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE AND DEVELOPMENT OF PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. SPEEDS MAY REACH SOLID 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AT NIGHT WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY AS SOUTHEAST SWELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL

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