Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 082231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
533 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
Cold high pressure will build across the area tonight through the
weekend, ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season. A
warming trend will follow early next week ahead of the next cold
front. Expect seasonable and dry weather Tuesday as high pressure
builds in behind front. Another frontal system will affect the area
during the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Much colder air will advance into the area
in the wake of a cold front. Clouds associated with the cold surge
and channeled mid-level vorticity associated with a minor short-wave
are expected to persist into the evening before clearing occurs
overnight. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles with little to no QPF
through the remainder of the afternoon, and possibly early evening
along the coast. Cold air advection will weaken overnight but will
still yield mins at or just below freezing inland to the lower to
mid 30s at the coastal locations. Colder temperatures are on tap
heading into the short term period.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Arctic high pressure will build into the
Eastern United States settling across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
during Saturday bringing much colder, below normal temperatures to
the area. In fact, during late Friday night into early Saturday
morning lows are expected to range from the lower 20s inland to the
mid 20s at the coast. These min temperatures are several categories
below normal (37 at ILM/CRE, 36 at FLO, and 33 at LBT). Otherwise,
zonal flow aloft each day will help to maintain a dry column. Blend
of MAV/MET number appears reasonable. A little better radiational
cooling appears likely late Saturday night and have undercut
guidance at that time as a result.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM Thursday...Boundary and surface temperatures progged to
recover some 10-12 degrees F on Sunday as the wedge weakens beneath
strong low level warm advection. Increased cloud cover resulting
from the upglide will temper the warmth slightly but Monday will
benefit from a much warmer start and should actually turn out warmer
than climatology. Rain chances associated with coastal trough Sunday
into Sunday night will continued to be carried but capped low as
they are likely a case of over aggressive moistening by guidance, a
seemingly common error. Rain chances should max out Monday as a cold
front moves through, though the lack of deep layer veering should
keep QPF prospects minimized as it prevents the mid levels from
moistening. After a dry and fairly seasonable Tuesday we may be
looking at another Arctic cold front on Wednesday.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...High pressure is building in with cold air advection
ongoing. Some mid and high clouds from the jet stream will linger.
Look for dewpoints to drop into the 20s overnight. Winds will not be
too gusty, but will stay above 7 kts. Winds will become gusty a
couple of hours after sunrise on Friday with nearly clear skies.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday...Surge across the coastal waters will
allow for strengthening offshore oriented winds and building seas
tonight. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in place and carry
into the short term period. The offshore direction of the wind
will result in a larger range of seas tonight given fetch
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Gusty winds will persist into Friday
morning, then as the ridge builds farther east conditions will
gradually improve Friday night, and especially during Saturday. A
weak coastal trough may develop late in the period with northeast
winds returning again on the landward side of the boundary. Seas
will be highest Friday morning, especially away from the coast
then average less than 3 ft by Saturday and Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As OF 3 AM Thursday...Winds initially out of the SE on Sunday
with a weak coastal trough in place. Late in the day into Sunday
night this feature washes out and a SSW flow gets established
and strengthens some. A few 5 ft seas may materialize well away
from shore but the coast-parallel fetch may preclude headlines
since most of the area sees smaller waves. Monday`s forecast
rather uncertain as models are in poor agreement in timing the
next front. The slower and slightly favored solutions would
allow for a moderately strong prefrontal SW flow that would
likely require an advisory.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.