Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 141902 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A nearly stationary front will linger across the area into midweek, supporting the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will gradually dissipate later in the week allowing for the return of more typical summertime heat and humidity along with a lower risk for thunderstorms. Heat index values will be above 100 all week, and may exceed heat advisory criteria on Friday. A cold front will move across the area this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Monday...The old synoptic boundary will linger across the Carolinas through the near term period as Gert passes by far offshore during Tuesday. The air-mass will remain very moist and the precipitable water could exceed 2.2 inches during Tuesday. In the meantime, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of heating. Another round of stratus and fog is likely, especially inland areas. The potential for additional rounds of convection will increase again during Tuesday with at least moderate instability present. The area remains highlighted in a marginal excessive rainfall outlook. The primary lifting mechanism will be the sea breeze front aided by subsequent boundary interactions. The underlying story will be hot/muggy conditions leading to heat indices in the 100-104F range during Tuesday. Lows will remain above normal as well tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern will shift slightly through the period to a more zonal configuration. This appears to usher in some intervals of slightly drier air with precipitable water values dropping to just under two inches early Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise elements remain essentially unchanged with a lingering front in the area and precipitable water values well over two inches outside of the previously mentioned times. This may serve to somewhat keep overnight and even later evening convection limited similar to what we observed this morning. Late morning and afternoon pops remain in the chance category. For temperatures highs expected to be in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM Monday...Ridge building across the Southeast late in the week will bring increasing heat and humidity before a cold front drops into the region for the wknd. Highs Thursday and Friday will likely climb well into the 90s away from the beaches as 850mb temps climb above 20C, and this will combine with continued high dewpoints and humidity to produce heat index values above 100 degrees. This environment is supportive of typical aftn thunderstorms, but coverage is not forecast to be too widespread as the ridge aloft helps to minimize total convective development. Still, will carry CHC POP both days, focused along the typical boundaries, and any storm could produce torrential rainfall. The cold front drops into the area Saturday as a 500mb shortwave digs into the OH VLY and then shifts east through Sunday. This will push the front through the area before stalling and beginning to dissipate on Monday thanks to increasing mid-level heights again behind the departing shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread Saturday and possibly again on Sunday before W/NW flow behind the aforementioned shortwave begins to dry the column. Temperatures and humidity will remain elevated although cooler than late week. First glance at the all-important Monday forecast is looking promising right now for the solar eclipse watchers out there. If the front can sag far enough south as currently shown by long-range guidance, the combination of surface high ridging from the OH VLY and increasingly dry W/NW flow aloft could support good viewing locally. Of course, if that front stalls overhead or begins to lift back to the north during Monday, it would create much more unsettled weather across the area. For what its worth, the 12Z/14 GFS average sky cover currently shows mostly clear sky conditions for the area Monday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 18Z...Best chances of convection will be from 19z today through 00Z Tuesday. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA is expected to diminish with the loss of heating in the evening. TEMPO MVFR in/near any storms, then MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBYs possible overnight in areas of stratus and fog, particularly at KFLO and KLBT. Stratus/fog will give way to BKN CU/SC in the morning with an increasing potential for convection again. Extended Outlook...Numerous to widespread convection after 18Z Tue will result in flight restrictions. Convection should be more scattered Wed through Fri, but MVFR or lower conditions may briefly occur in TSRA. Low stratus and fog during the overnight and early morning hours through the period may result in flight restrictions as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...An old synoptic boundary will remain north of the waters through Tuesday while Gert remains far offshore. This pattern supports a continuation of weak southerly flow across the waters. Some wind wave as a result of this fetch however swells from Gert will be increasing from the southeast. Recent WaveWatch III data indicates the swell could get close to Small Craft thresholds tomorrow morning. For now will hold off on an advisory with seas (mainly in swell) in the 4-5 ft range. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Winds will remain relatively light through the period with a southwesterly flow the majority of the time. There are indications of a weak surface trough pushing across during the overnight hours which seems reasonable with the synoptic flow veering to the west a bit. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early on dropping back to around two feet after the swell component from Tropical Storm Gert. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...A messy wave spectrum expected late week as a weak gradient exists in the vicinity of offshore high pressure. This gradient will gradually tighten beginning late Friday and on Saturday as a cold front drops into the area from the NW. Although no wind shift is expected during this period, speeds will increase, becoming SW at 10-15 kts late Friday and Saturday, after being SW less than 10 kts Thursday into Friday. Wave heights will be 2-3 ft Thursday and much of Friday with a variety of low-amplitude wave groups comprising the spectrum. On Saturday seas will build to 3-4 ft as a SW wind wave becomes more significant.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SRP MARINE...JDW/SHK/SRP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.