Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 231835 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 135 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...KLTX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL PROGRESSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PRESIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A CONFINED AREA ALONG THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR AREA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OFF THE COAST GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER ADJACENT LAND LOCATIONS. IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT... HOWEVER INTENSE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MAY IN THE END ROB US OF HIGHER QPF. AS A RESULT...HAVE NUDGED THE STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT DOWNWARD WITH ABOUT 2 INCHES FROM COASTAL CAPE FEAR TO JUST ABOVE AN INCH FAR WESTERN ZONES. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...A MUCH MORE ACTIVE RANGE IN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT WAFFLES JUST ONSHORE THIS EVENING. THUS A TEMPORARY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IS LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE THIS AIR-MASS IS SHUNTED BACK OUT OVER THE OCEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXITING THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL PUSH UP TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS ROBUST SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE COLD AND DRY ADVECTION SHUTS OFF THE PRECIP. DRY ADVECTION IS SO STRONG THAT CLOUDS WILL BREAK BEFORE SUNSET...AND THE SUN MAY MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE SATURDAY EVENING. AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WARMEST EARLY IN THE DAY...REACHING THE UPR 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN ON THE CAA...AND WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS COOL ADVECTION WILL THEN DRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT MINS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE FAR NW ZONES. THIS LOW WILL BE LONG GONE BY SUNDAY...AND WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST WILL CREATE A PLEASANT DAY LOCALLY. HIGHS WILL EXCEED CLIMO VALUES...RISING INTO THE MID 50S BENEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN. LATE SUNDAY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE TROUGH AND APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NW. ALTHOUGH THIS VORTICITY IMPULSE IS QUITE STRONG...IT IS ENCOUNTERING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS STARVED OF MOISTURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS FROM GETTING TOO COOL THOUGH...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PLAGUES THE EAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THANKS TO SOMEWHAT ENHANCED COLUMN MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE -25C COLD POOL. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH. THIS WILL SERVE ALSO AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME ARCTIC AIR WHICH THEN FLOODS SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND IS THEN REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND DRY COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUE/WED WILL RUN AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE SLOW MODERATION BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING TO JUST BELOW CLIMO VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS RA/SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WINDS WILL BE NE-E THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 00Z WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR/TEMPO VFR AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR TS/IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO COINCIDE WITH MAX LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 04Z...AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS 09-10Z. CIGS BECOME MVFR/IFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS SAT MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SAT EVENING. VFR ON SUN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MON WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON TUE/WED. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE FETCH OFFSHORE DIRECTS WAVE ENERGY TO THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE FEAR WATERS. THE FLOW WILL VEER FROM A EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WIND/WAVES. NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAVE A PINCHED GRADIENT AND GUSTY W/NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE...REACHING 20-30 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE TO 10-15 KTS...BUT MAINTAIN THE PREDOMINANTLY W/NW DIRECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW A BIT AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY ELEVATED EARLY...REACHING 7-10 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS PUSH THE HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS...AT THE SAME TIME SPEEDS ARE FALLING. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 2 FT MOST OF THE DAY...BEFORE RISING QUICKLY LATE TO 4-6 FT. ANOTHER SCA MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY...SO AS WINDS TURN FROM SW EARLY TO NW LATE...THEY WILL BE 15-20 KTS THANKS TO A PINCHED GRADIENT. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NW ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 10-15 KTS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. 4-6 FT SEAS WILL GREET MARINERS MONDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE NW...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO JUST 1-3 FT BY TUESDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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