Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 191028 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 628 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...FULL SUN AT HORIZON-RISE EXPECTED AND UNOBSTRUCTED WITH NO CLOUDS OR FOG/MIST OF NOTE. A BRISK NORTH WIND WILL GREET THE DAY...AND INITIALLY WIND CHILLS WILL DIP IN THE 40S AT SUNRISE IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY WISPY ENCROACHMENT OF CIRRUS CAUGHT IN QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF STATES AS THE UPPER PATTERN SNAPS BACK INTO PLACE IN WAKE OF THE SHARP IMPULSE PASSAGE. DISSIPATION MAY EAT PART OF THE ICE CRYSTALS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROCESS...SUNNY IS LOOKING GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE. AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES. PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB. A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY BEFORE WINDS EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON AND HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 4-6 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO 10-15 KT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES LATE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.