Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251946 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 246 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THEA AREA AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL REMAIN ALIGNED UP THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD AS COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND FRONT WELL INLAND BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS JUST ALONG AND OFF THE COAST WILL BE MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF SHORE AS LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN WELL SOUTH OF AREA. THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL DEEPEN BY THIS EVENING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THIS LOW WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT SPREADING RAIN INLAND BUT HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW WHICH ALLOWED THE COLUMN TO DRY A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROVIDING A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SHOWS A SPIKE UP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UP ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WITH DEEP FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 50 TO 60 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASING WITH PCP BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE DEEPEST CONVECTION OCCURS IN BEST CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME QPF VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT THE COAST HAS BEEN QUITE DRY LATELY AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISE OF A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE WINDS SHIFT WITH A SLIGHT COOLING IN NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVE INLAND. AS LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST OVERNIGHT A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON BACK END WHILE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT END. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ACTUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS EVE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVECTS WARMER AIR ON SHORE. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY DROP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT TAIL END OF MIN TEMP FOREACAST GRID IN CAA ON THE BACK END OF LOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL INITIATE AS A COOL AND WET DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND EARLY...BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY IFR TOWARD EVENING. RAIN HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW WITH STRONG CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. MAINLY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...REALLY VARIABLE WOULD BE A BETTER DESCRIPTION. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST TONIGHT...STRONG LIFT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO WED AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR LATE WED THROUGH SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RISE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GA/SC COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE ALL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW WED MORNING. LATEST WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS INCREASE UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD ABATE TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH 7 TO 8 FOOTERS POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE EARLY FRI BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRI WILL WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER FRI AND SAT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS IN THE REGION. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FRIDAY WILL DROP TO 2 FT OR LESS FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...DL

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