Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 121242 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 842 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 840 AM SATURDAY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9 AM. FORECAST UPDATE WILL ACCOUNT FOR THAT...AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED POPS OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THAT AREA REMAINS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE REMNANT DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND FURTHER DESTABILAZATION IN THE 9 AM-NOON TIME FRAME WARRANTS HIGHER POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...WITH THE SURGE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEING THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND SUNNIER FEW DAYS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. WHILE THE 500MB FLOW BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF HIGH-AMPLIFICATION...THIS WILL NOT OCCUR LOCALLY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THUS RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A NICE FEW DAYS ACROSS THE ILM CWA. SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO...AS EXCEEDINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HELPS KEEP PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES...AND EXPECT ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE AFTN. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE AREA REMAINS DRY DURING SUNDAY. CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND THE BEGINNING OF SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CAUSE INCREASING POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. VERY LATE MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THUS PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF MONDAY WILL FEATURE TYPICAL CAROLINA SUMMERTIME WEATHER. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S WELL INLAND...WITH 90 DEGREE HIGHS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ON THE BEACHES. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MAXIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE HELD ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 70S...MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL LOAD ACROSS CANADA AND DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IN A PATTERN THAT IS QUITE ATYPICAL FOR MID-JULY. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH...PROGGED TO BE NEAR -3 SD`S IN INTENSITY...WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND THUS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER THICKNESSES LOCALLY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW BY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH VERY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH POP WITH VERY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY. WHILE SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION JUST NORTH OF HERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE CWA...DUE TO THE VERY SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS DIFFERENCES. THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT DRIER AS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT BY FRIDAY...ONCE AGAIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF MUCH DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE REGION. INLAND TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF DENSE FOG...BUT MOST OF IT WILL MIX OUT IN AN HOUR OR SO. VERY LIGHT GRADIENT TODAY...MAINLY AN EASTERLY COMPONENT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT...WORST CASE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 7 AM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY HAD BEEN SLOW MOVING BUT LAST FEW SCANS OF KLTX RADAR SHOW PRONOUNCED SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ARE PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH. WINDS OUTSIDE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...REMAINS OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST WINDS BEING DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO WINDS TO SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS MUCH ABOVE 10 KT ARE NOT EXPECTED...EVEN NEAR SHORE. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO 2 FT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL VEER TO BECOME SW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. WHILE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ONLY AROUND 10 KTS...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS WILL DRIVE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MONDAY...HIGHEST LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 2 FT...BUT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...POTENT COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CREATE A PINCHED GRADIENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS REMAINING MOSTLY UNCHANGED BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WINDS EASE A BIT AND SEAS FALL TO 2-4 FT LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...III/BJR MARINE...III/JDW

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