-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 160528
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 128 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK UNDER A CLEAR AND DRY
COLUMN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:

AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...A SORT OF DOUBLE-RIDGE-AXIS HIGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS HAS DRIFTED EAST THIS EVE...AND THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S WILL ONLY
SLOWLY RECOVER TONIGHT...AND A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST REMAINS FOR
THE NIGHT.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS OFFSHORE HIGH
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RETURN FLOW. WHILE WINDS WILL
NOT GET VERY STRONG OVERNIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK
SURFACE WAA TO KEEP MINS ABOVE MOS NUMBERS AND ELIMINATE IDEAL
LONGWAVE COOLING. THIS IS ECHOED BY ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IN FORECAST PROFILES...WHICH ALL OTHER PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST
SHOULD BE QUITE STEEP. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO 62-65 INLAND...65-68 AT THE
COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR
AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS MORE TYPICAL
RETURN MONDAY.  INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.  MINIMUMS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE TUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT LESS SO FOR STRONG STORMS. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING LIMITED TO POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. HAVE BUMPED POP TO LIKELY FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN STALLS AS WEAK 5H
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES BOUNDARY PARALLEL.
EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE HIGHEST POP WILL
BE...BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO WARRANT CARRYING A CHC POP FOR EACH DAY. HARD TO NAIL DOWN
WHICH DAY HAS BETTER/BEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME SO
WILL CARRY CHC POP EACH DAY FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH
LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT GROUND FOG
INLAND APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AT
KLBT/KFLO BELOW 60 DEG. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CU DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TODAY WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AOB 10 KTS AFTER 00Z AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASING LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE. VFR ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 128 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEAS REMAIN
1-2 FT WITH WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:

AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. EVEN WITH THIS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A TYPICAL RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE S
TO SW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT BUT HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENT MAY END UP BEING A MARGINAL LIMITED DURATION
SCA WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM APPROACHING 6 FT. FRONT REACHES THE WATERS
BY WED MORNING WITH BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10 KT...THOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SEAS WILL DROP FROM
3 TO 5 FT WED MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...XVII/8
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...XII/8