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738
FXUS62 KILM 010224
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1024 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will pass across the region later
tonight into Wed bringing with it a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms into Wednesday. Warm and dry air returns Thursday
and Friday before a frontal boundary keeps the late week and
weekend unsettled, although no given day a total washout.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Slow moving mid-level s/w trof with accompanying moisture
will keep the 20-40 pop threat for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm thru the night. The best activity should transition
to along the Gulf Stream by daybreak Wed. Included patchy fog
across areas that received and locations that will potentially
receive pcpn. Min temps look aok, no major tweaking needed.
Winds will slowly veer from S to SW to 5 mph or less overnight
as a sfc trof (a decaying cold front at this point) approaches
from the west.

Low risk for rip currents across all county beaches Wed.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident in moisture channel
imagery over the southeast US with its trough axis over the
Tennessee Valley and shifting eastward. Meanwhile, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen downstream from this trough
centered over the Augusta, GA vicinity and tracking generally
ENE. Lift associated with the shortwave will enter the region
from the west this evening, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms to western areas. However, with the loss of
daytime heating, instability will decrease and this should lead
to an overall weakening of activity as it tracks eastward
overnight. Where heavier rain soaks the ground, partial clearing
may lead to areas of fog or low clouds late tonight, especially
in the western zones. With the trough axis shifting overhead by
12Z Wednesday, shower activity should largely come to an end by
rush hour. Morning lows in the low-mid 60s are expected,
modulated mainly by cloud cover and rainfall.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to settle over the
area by midday, with W to NW flow near I-95 and SW flow near
the coast ahead of the sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist
airmass should yield weak to moderate instability across the
coastal zones inland of the sea breeze and east of the surface
trough by early afternoon. Although the location of the
shortwave will lead to mid-level subsidence and drying which
should limit overall coverage of convection, lift along the sea
breeze should yield isolated to perhaps scattered convection
during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes still appear
modest in the 15-25 kt range while DCAPE values may reach up to
1000 J/kg late in the day. Thus, while locally strong wind gusts
remain a possibility with the strongest storms, organized
convection is not anticipated. High temps should reach the low-
mid 80s, warmest around I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heights recovering Wednesday night following Wednesday`s
shortwave, the main mid level ridge once again ready to build
overhead. Expect quiet weather through the period with mild
nights and an afternoon with highs about a category above
climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry and warm weather lasts into Friday as upper ridge still in
control, though it will be moving east. A few storms should pop
in the Carolinas but remain to our west. Not so on Saturday as
some mid level impulses start flowing through the local mid
level flow while a surface boundary stalls somewhere from NE NC
to Upstate SC. The most widespread and heavy activity will be
near the front but we can expect more scattered coverage
locally, the least coverage along the immediate coast where
marine air could lead to zero coverage. There will be little to
push this boundary anywhere on Sunday, which may then offer up
similar rain chances/distribution. Heights recover Monday and
Tuesday and the precip coverage should wane especially as the
front washes out. The previous days convection will have left
behind mesoscale boundaries that should still support isolated
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to mainly dominate the terminals during the next 24 hrs.
Exceptions will be for brief periods of MVFR from showers or
even an isolated tstorm thru 04Z. May see a threat for isolated
showers for the coastal terminals thru the overnight, again
possibly producing a brief MVFR occurrence. Some models hint at
flight restrictions to fog and/or low stratus for the inland
terminals toward Wed daybreak but kept it out other than
mentioning here atleast. Threat for coastal terminal convection
along the sea breeze with aid from a slowly departing mid-level
s/w trof. Have included a Prob30 group for Wed aftn tstorm
action across the coastal terminals. Winds generally S <10 kt
becoming SW 5 kt or less overnight. Passage of a sfc trof
associated with the 5h s/w trof will veer winds to the NW-N 5 to
9 kt Wed aftn inland terminals. Coastal terminals will back to
the S due to the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Transient MVFR to IFR cigs and vis in
showers and tstorms could affect the coastal terminals
early Wed evening. Otherwise, VFR should dominate through the
the period, outside of any early morning fog or low ceilings
each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Southerly flow at 10-15 kts veers to
southwesterly tonight as a surface trough approaches with
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm moving across the
waters late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds back to
southerly over the coastal waters as the sea breeze gets going
during the day Wednesday and should remain southerly through
the daylight hours. S-SSE wind waves in the 2-3 ft range will
dominate the wave spectrum, although easterly 1-2 swells at 11
sec or so will remain in play through Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Wind quite light and variable
early in the period, the previous Bermuda high-induced SWrly
flow having been disrupted. SE to S winds get re-established by
Friday as pressures rise offshore. Small wind waves and
negligible swell will keep the dominant seas forecast capped at
2 ft early, opening up to 2-3 later in the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...ILM