-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 160710
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
302 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK LEADING TO RAIN CHANCES. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...TEMPERATURE WISE...A PAGE RIGHT OUT OF THE
CLIMATE BOOKS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S FOR MAXIMUM READINGS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA CAPPING THE COLUMN WITH WARM AND DRY
AIR ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS. HENCE NO MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL LIKELY SEE A SMATTERING OF 5
KFT CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS DUE
TO THE SEA-AIR MODIFICATION WORKING INLAND. MILD OVERNIGHT IN SW
WIND FLOW WITH A PROGRESSIVELY MOISTENING COLUMN. SEVERAL IMPULSES
UPSTREAM THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR VERY WESTERN ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK
MONDAY BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE...NO MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SINCE SOME DRY AIR MAY LINGER ALOFT WITH VERY WEAK OMEGA FIELDS IN
PLACE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS LATER MONDAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE USUAL CULPRITS...THE SEA BREEZE
AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THE TIMING...LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF LIKELY POPS. ANY SEVERE
THREAT...WHICH IS ALWAYS IN PLAY THIS TIME OF YEAR LOOKS TO BE
HIGHEST...RELATIVELY SPEAKING TUESDAY WHEN THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS
A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S KEEP READINGS COMFORTABLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WPC CONTINUES TO OPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS
MODEST AMPLITUDE FOR THE CONUS. THE EAST COAST WILL SEE A SUBTLE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
KEEPS A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. I HAVE
TRENDED BACK POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY TO
REPRESENT A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND. HOWEVER I CANNOT RULE OUT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ANY DAY. THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS WARRANTS A TICK DOWN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY REGARDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT GROUND FOG
INLAND APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AT
KLBT/KFLO BELOW 60 DEG. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CU DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TODAY WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AOB 10 KTS AFTER 00Z AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASING LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE. VFR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ON THE
WATERS BUT SHOULD BACK TOWARD A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE
A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON INSHORE AS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
UNFOLDS. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR-SHORE OUGHT TO BE EXPECTED FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT...MAINLY IN A
COMBINATION OF S WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS TODAY OR
TONIGHT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 4 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SOUTH WAVES INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO AN INCREASING FETCH
LENGTH AND DURATION.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY FROM
THE STANDARD 10-15 KNOTS MONDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE CLOSE BEHIND WITH INITIAL VALUES OF 2-4 FEET
INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW BUT FOR NOW THE WATERS SHOULD SEE A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A VERY WEAK ALMOST VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
LATER IN THE DAY CONTINUING THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE HIGHEST
EARLY WITH 3-5 FEET WHICH IS A RESIDUAL AFFECT FROM EARLIER HIGHER
WINDS. BY THURSDAY EVENING SEAS SHOULD BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR/MJC