Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171151 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 751 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HS MOSTLY PETERED OUT THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED OUT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS INTACT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STRATIFORM EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. HOWEVER..THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPINGES UPON THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT...LIKELY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE JUMPS FRONT OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK AS CYCLOGENESIS STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SEASONALLY COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S UP NORTH TO THE MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH. WILL RETAIN THE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CONUS. A ADDITIONAL FACTOR FAVORING PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT RIDING OVER EASTERLY WINDS BELOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SEASONAL VEIN...WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THU WILL SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND FRI...SETTING UP A CLASSIC WEDGE. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THU AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BUT INCREASED NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LIMITED EACH DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING THE MID LEVELS DRY. THE ONLY REAL THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY FRI...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE CARRYING SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC ALONG THE COAST WITH POP AROUND 10 INLAND. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER INLAND HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND A LITTLE LESS MARINE INFLUENCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD ON INTO AT LEAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS THE WEDGE COULD HOLD ON INTO MON GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INTO NEXT WEEK. FARTHER INLAND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A NARROW GRADIENT BETWEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS IS COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY POTENTIAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE WEDGE AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST BEFORE HELPING TO BREAK THE WEDGE AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MANY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEPING THIS FEATURE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND FARTHER OFF THE COAST. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MON...DRIVEN SOUTH BY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. FROPA DURING THE DAY MON WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS A QUESTION. EXPECT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WILL PARTLY DEPEND ON TIMING. FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE AT KLBT/KILM. SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS IS ALSO OCCURRING NORTH OF KLBT/KILM AND COULD SPREAD INTO THESE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE KILM WILL EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT IFR/LIFR STRATUS/VSBYS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN. ALL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE THAT IFR...MUCH LESS LIFR WILL OCCUR AS NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONDITIONS NOT AS LOW...WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. VFR ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6:15 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. WIND WAVES WILL BE IN THE MODEST 1 TO 2 FT RANGE...BUT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD...BRINGING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THU WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THU NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN THE REALM OF 10 KT BUT BY MIDDAY FRI SOLID 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IS EXPECTED. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THU FLIRTS WITH HEADLINE CRITERIA FRI...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT ACROSS PARTS OF NC WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS SAT BUT WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN WILL ALLOW FOR A REDUCTION IN SPEEDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE WATERS SUN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW SUN NIGHT LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE SAT DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...III NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/III

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