Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261128 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 728 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA...MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 622 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL MORNING ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC ON THIS LAST SUNDAY OF JULY 2015. RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 26TH INCLUDE ILM 63 IN 1895...FLO 64 IN 1957...CRE 68 IN 1954. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR SEVERAL...ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS AT DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURE FALLS HAVE SLOWED DUE TO TURBULENT WIND MIXING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED ANOTHER DEGREE OR 2 OF COOLING. IR CHANNEL SHOWS BANDS OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING OFF FLORIDA. THE ECHOES REMAIN POSITIONED A GOOD DISTANCE OUT AND NO PLANS TO INCLUDE COASTAL LAND SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. INCREASING H9-H8 MOISTURE OFF THE SEA WILL LIKELY RESULT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT...AND MARINE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SO MENTIONABLE POPS INTO EARLY MONDAY ARE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW. THE RETURN FLOW WILL MEAN A BOOST IN MINIMUMS MONDAY FROM UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE AS IT GETS REINFORCED WITH A PUSH FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING INCREASINGLY DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT. FOR CONTINUITY WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY AND DROP OFF SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE NORTHERLY PUSH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVING FROM A SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DECENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND EVEN LESS FORCING POPS ARE MINIMAL. MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH ANY TROPICAL ENTITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. NHC HAS REMOVED ANY MENTION WITH THE LATEST TWO. BY FRIDAY THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST PUSHES WEST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SET UP THE EAST COAST TROUGHING. A FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS ACROSS THE COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AND MAINTAINED THE HIGH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NUMBERS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FIRST HALF THEN A LITTLE BELOW LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NE-ENE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING E-ESE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BACKING TO THE NE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM THERE IS ONLY SCT THIN CIRRUS...AND SOME CU TOWERS CAN BE SEEN 50-60 MILES OFFSHORE OF KILM. AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT PATTERN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. AS MVFR LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS...WITH BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KILM. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO 3K OR BETTER SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT...AND BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DECREASE AS WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO SHORE. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THESE COULD SHIFT TO KILM AFTER 09Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 622 AM SUNDAY...MODERATE E-ENE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 3-4 FOOT SEAS MOST MARINE LOCATIONS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO E-ESE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS LATER TODAY...AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4 FEET WILL BE COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 2-3 FT EVERY 11 SECONDS...AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SETUP BASICALLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...VERY BENIGN WIND FIELDS MIDWEEK FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK AND THE SEA BREEZE AND OR LAND BREEZE WILL BE THE DRIVER OF WINDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD BE THE RULE. BENIGN SEAS AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR

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