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804
FXUS62 KILM 301923
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front will bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening and overnight as well as into Wednesday. Warm and
dry air returns Thursday and Friday before another frontal
boundary keeps the late week and weekend unsettled, though no
given day a washout.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A mid-level shortwave trough is evident in moisture channel imagery
over the southeast US with its trough axis over the Tennessee Valley
and shifting eastward. Meanwhile, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen downstream from this trough centered over the
Augusta, GA vicinity and tracking generally ENE. Lift associated
with the shortwave will enter the region from the west this evening,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to western areas.
However, with the loss of daytime heating, instability will decrease
and this should lead to an overall weakening of activity as it
tracks eastward overnight. Where heavier rain soaks the ground,
partial clearing may lead to areas of fog or low clouds late
tonight, especially in the western zones. With the trough axis
shifting overhead by 12Z Wednesday, shower activity should largely
come to an end by rush hour. Morning lows in the low-mid 60s are
expected, modulated mainly by cloud cover and rainfall.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to settle over the area
by midday, with W to NW flow near I-95 and SW flow near the coast
ahead of the sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass should
yield weak to moderate instability across the coastal zones inland
of the sea breeze and east of the surfaec trough by early afternoon.
Although the location of the shortwave will lead to mid-level
subsidence and drying which should limit overall coverage of
convection, lift along the sea breeze should yield isolated to
perhaps scattered convection during the afternoon. Effective shear
magnitudes still appear modest in the 15-25 kt range while DCAPE
values may reach up to 1000 J/kg late in the day. Thus, while
locally strong wind gusts remain a possibility with the strongest
storms, organized convection is not anticipated. High temps should
reach the low-mid 80s, warmest around I-95.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Heights recovering Wednesday night following Wednesday`s shortwave,
the main mid level ridge once again ready to build overhead. Expect
quiet weather through the period with mild nights and an afternoon
with highs about a category above climatology.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dry and warm weather lasts into Friday as upper ridge still in
control, though it will be moving east. A few storms should pop in
the Carolinas but remain to our west.  Not so on Saturday as some
mid level impulses start flowing through the local mid level flow
while a surface boundary stalls somewhere from NE NC to Upstate SC.
The most widespread and heavy activity will be near the front but we
can expect more scattered coverage locally, the least coverage
along the immediate coast where marine air could lead to zero
coverage. There will be little to push this boundary anywhere on
Sunday, which may then offer up similar rain chances/distribution.
Heights recover Monday and Tuesday and the precip coverage should
wane especially as the front washes out. The previous days
convection will have left behind mesoscale boundaries that should
still support isolated coverage.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected to dominate through the remainder of the
daylight hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move
in from the west this evening and move east overnight, gradually
weakening as they trek towards the coast. Shower activity
should move offshore late in the night or soon after sunrise
tomorrow. The potential exists for relatively brief MVFR/IFR
visibility and ceilings within stronger convection this evening
and tonight, with moderate chances at KFLO, lower chances at
KLBT, and minimal chances at the coastal terminals. A period of
MVFR cigs may develop over KFLO late in the night, but
confidence was too low to include at this time. Otherwise, VFR
is expected tomorrow morning, with at least isolated sea breeze
convection developing just beyond the end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Transient MVFR to IFR cigs and vis in
showers and storms could affect the coastal terminals Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with lower chances at the inland
terminals. Otherwise, VFR should dominate through the rest of
the period, outside of any early-morning mist/fog each day.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Wednesday... Southerly flow at 10-15 kts veers to
southwesterly tonight as a surface trough approaches with scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm moving across the waters late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds back to southerly over the
coastal waters as the sea breeze gets going during the day Wednesday
and should remain southerly through the daylight hours. S-SSE wind
waves in the 2-3 ft range will dominate the wave spectrum, although
easterly 1-2 swells at 11 sec or so will remain in play through
Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Wind quite light and variable
early in the period, the previous Bermuda high-induced SWrly flow
having been disrupted. SE to S winds get re-established by Friday as
pressures rise offshore. Small wind waves and negligible swell will
keep the dominant seas forecast capped at 2 ft early, opening up to
2-3 later in the period.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM