Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 011059 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 659 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DURING ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE OFFSHORE CONVECTION...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO HELP SQUELCH MORNING CONVECTION WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. A FRONT...WHICH MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED AS IT BECOMES INTERTWINED WITH THE DAILY SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST SUN MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL FORECASTS OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE. OVERALL...THE COLUMN WILL DRY THROUGH TIME INLAND WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DROP FROM NEAR 2 INCHES THIS MORNING TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVERNIGHT. THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND...BUT THE TIMING WILL LAG WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOT EXPECTED TIL SUN MORNING. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WITH A STRONGER MID- LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED INLAND AS COMPARED TO THE COAST...WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT HOLD THE COVERAGE AT SCATTERED FOR NOW. AS YOU MOVE PROGRESSIVELY INLAND...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LESSEN AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF A EYF TO FLO LINE. W OF INTERSTATE 95...THE DRY AIR AND CAP MAY BE JUST A LITTLE TOO HOSTILE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE STILL TO SLIDE THOUGH THE MORE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE FACT THAT THE LAND BREEZE/WEAK FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SEAWARD OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SMALL NIGHTTIME POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLE...LOWER TO MID 70S AND A FEW SPOTS WELL INLAND MAY DROP JUST BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING SURFACE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG INLAND AND WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST LOW-CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT MONDAY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY DRY. THIS FRONT IS STALLED BENEATH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BUT IS PRETTY FLAT LOCALLY AND THUS IS UNABLE TO ADVECT IT OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS BEGINS TO BULGE NE AND IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO FINALLY DISSIPATE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SUNDAY...AND THE INHERITED SCHC ALONG THE COAST ONLY WILL REMAIN WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOWARDS I-95...A VERY SHARP PWAT GRADIENT WILL EXIST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THAT AREA...AND THUS NO POP IS FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ON MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY REASON FOR THIS MUST BE A VORT MAX PROGGED TO SWING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN...BUT WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE STILL BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE. WILL DROP POP TO SCHC FROM THE INHERITED LOW-CHC FOR MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE COASTAL THIRD OF THE CWA MOST FAVORED. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS...AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND AS WARM AS 95 WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL 72-76 BOTH NIGHTS...WARMEST AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDGING FROM THE ARKLATEX THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS CREATES DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TUE/WED...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TOO WARM WITH ITS EXTREME HEAT AND WILL FAVOR THE COOLER MOS NUMBERS. THE VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THOUGH. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE- AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EAST...LED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OH VLY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND INTO OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THU/FRI...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST OFF THE NC/SC COAST AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOG WILL BE THE CONCERN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR AT TIMES IN VSBY DUE TO CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER 13Z NEAR THE COAST AND 17Z INLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION HAD MOVED BEYOND 20 NM NEAR SUNRISE...THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING THE OUTERMOST WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS AMZ250 AND 252. A WEAK FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE. FOR THE WATERS...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S OR SSW...ALTHOUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... THE LAND BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY OR AT LEAST VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OUT ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 KT... STRONGEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVE HOURS. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A 9 TO 11 SECOND SE SWELL AND WIND ENERGY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME 5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS LATE DAY AND THIS EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE DISSIPATING JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY...SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE LATE SUNDAY BUT ONLY AT AROUND 10 KT. AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY...A LONG PERIOD (11 SEC) SE SWELL WILL EXIST IN THE SPECTRUM WITH A 2-3 FT AMPLITUDE...LIKELY FROM THE LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE 3-4 FT SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...THIS SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE TO DRIVE SEAS TO 4-5 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE SO THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN...AND WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION BOTH DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A 2 FT SE SWELL TO CREATE 3-4 FT SEAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THIS LUNAR CYCLE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT FOR NCZ110. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD/MAC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.