Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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788 FXUS62 KILM 251725 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through most of the upcoming seven days. At the surface there will be a light onshore flow. A tropical disturbance in the Bahamas will cross Florida over the weekend and may need to be watched for a turn up the East Coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Thursday...Morning sounding from MHX continues to show strong mid-level capping with a base around 800 mb. This is the result of subsidence under the mid level ridge that has been steadily working its way north from the Gulf Coast. This has all but prevent any vertical growth of diurnal cumulus the last few days and will again do so today. Short range high resolution guidance has been showing development of weak, short lived showers along the sea breeze but the bulk of the area will remain dry. Highs will be near to slightly above climo with temps ranging from upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary weather highlights this period are maximum temperatures a few degrees above normal, small rain chances, and a fairly comfortable air mass as dewpoints hold in the lower 70s compared to middle and upper. Over-lap of peak heating and inland convergence could pop an isolated TSTM Saturday afternoon when moisture deepens slightly. Otherwise mainly fair this period with heat induced cumulus both days. Lows will become a bit milder this period and by early Sunday minimums in the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Models struggling right off the bat with the start of the long term period. Strong mid level ridge still likely in command but models now interestingly try to retrograde an upper impulse our way out of the messy remnants of Fiona and stalled front well off the coast. GFS and older EC imply this feature to be of little consequence locally but the Canadian has a strong surface reflection and could imply rain though it keeps it all north of here. For now have maintained warm temps and isolated POPs of continuity especially since the latest EC barely shows it at all. Assuming all of the aforementioned the upper ridging will maintain warm temps and minimal POPs through the period. Towards the midweek we may start dealing with some moisture associated with tropical disturbance AL99. The surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly defined through the long term with just a general light onshore flow. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Other than possible early morning MVFR fog for LBT and FLO, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue modest winds at the terminals, becoming light and variable or calm overnight. Wind directions today may be variable at times for the inland terminals with high pressure directly overhead, but the coastal terminals will likely experience a weak sea-breeze related south- easterly flow through the afternoon hours. Scattered to occasionally broken fair weather CU with bases from 4 to 6 kft will persist through the afternoon hours, fading this evening with only patchy light cirrus remaining. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for MVFR due to areas of haze or fog early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Thursday...Other than a few lingering light showers will be a quiet across the waters today. Northeast to east winds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range will continues as high pressure extends southwest into the region. Seas will remain around 3 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Great pair of boating days as winds ease, to a light onshore flow. Seas between 2-3 feet, and longer wave periods may begin to emerge in the spectrum by Saturday. Isolated marine showers may be expected in the mornings this period but they will remain widely separated. No advisories or hazards noted this period. Slight stronger inshore winds in the afternoon due to the sea breeze both Friday and Saturday. LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...A very weak pressure gradient making for some very light winds even by Summer standards through the long term. Wind waves will obviously be minimal. There will be an increase in swell energy however associated with Gaston, the extent of which will hinge upon the yet uncertain strength and size of the hurricane. WNA guidance shows the main swell front arriving Sunday evening. We may have to increase wave height forecast for Monday but for now it shows the main increase in wave height staying to our north. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...REK MARINE...MJC/III/MBB

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