Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 301031 CCA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 629 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING INLAND OF THE AREA...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND COOLING AIR TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...WILL PROMOTE MIST AND STRATUS OVER NE SC AND SE NC THROUGH DAYBREAK. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED UNDER STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN...AND ALSO THAT UPSTREAM CIRRUS CONTINUES A THINNING TREND. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PROMPT CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR FROM INLAND GEORGETOWN COUNTY ACROSS NE SC...EXTENDING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND. COLUMN MOISTURE IS IN LIMITED SUPPLY ALOFT BUT THIS COULD IN TURN HELP CONVECTION ENTRAIN DRY AIR TO BRING AN ELEVATED GUST POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAN AN AXIS OF 0-1KM ENERGY HELICITY INDICES IMPINGE OUR WESTERN ZONES IN PEAK HEATING. A FUNNEL CLOUD OR ROTATING SPIN-UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. AREAS FROM FLORENCE TO HARTSVILLE TO DARLINGTON TO BENNETTSVILLE APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED REGION. MAX TEMPS MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S INTERIOR NE SC...WITH MINS AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY LOWS/MID 60S SE NC AND UPPER 60S NE SC. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN WEATHER CAPTION IS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLUMN MOISTURE RAMPS UP SUNDAY. A BOUNDARY N AND W OF THE AREA SUNDAY MAY SEE STORM AND SHOWER INITIATION WHILE THE STEERING FLOW POTENTIALLY GUIDES SOME OF THE CONVECTION INTO SE NC AND NE SC. THE DAYTIME WARMING WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE COAST INLAND. BECAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...SPC HAS HELD ONTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SE NC AND PARTS OF NE SC. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID 70S COAST AND LOW 80S INLAND. ELEVATED COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY WITH BRIEF MID LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY HEATING AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY TO SE NC WILL AGAIN PROMPT A CHANCE AT A MARGINALLY STRONG TSTM. MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY WILL FATTEN LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOUT THE AREA WE SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL CONCERNED DUE TO THE LACK OF A POTENT SYSTEM AND THE FACT WE HAVE NOT SEEN GOOD RAINFALL WITH THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS RECENTLY. BY THURSDAY A FULL BLOWN OMEGA PATTERN DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE GETTING A GOOD PUSH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK DROPS TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS EARLY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A CHANCE FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEBRIS CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM A LARGE MCS. IF THE CIRRUS BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH IT COULD HINDER FOG FORMATION. MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH KEEPING NORTHERN TERMINALS IN A MVFR STRATOCU CEILING...POSSIBLY IFR 10Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND 01Z ONWARD TONIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 629 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE DAYBREAK UPDATES. THE ENERGY SPECTRUM SHOWS A MISH-MASH OF BOTH LONGER PERIOD WAVES AND SHORT-PERIOD WIND-DERIVED WAVES THIS MORNING AND THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN THE WIND-WAVE PORTION OF THE SPECTRUM. SUB-ADVISORY BUT LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SURGE OF NE-E WIND WORKS DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING...GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY BE EXPECTED OCCASIONALLY TODAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT BEFORE EVENING IN THE MODERATE ONSHORE WIND. WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND TO SE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY HELPING TO MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MAIN MARINE FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IN THIS WARM FLOW EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...A RADAR UPDATE IS A SMART IDEA BEFORE VENTURING OUT. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 3-4 FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT OUTER WATERS LATE MONDAY BRIEFLY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED. OVERALL EXPECT A NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS STRUGGLING TO ECLIPSE TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN MUTED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...8/MRR

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