Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220543 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...THE SPIGOT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AND TEMPORARILY TURN OFF ACROSS THE ILM CWA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND FORCING FROM RESIDUAL COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVING BEEN WORKED OVER...PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE. MUCH OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE FA HAS BECOME STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AND IS WELL EXHIBITED BY THE LATEST LOCAL KLTX...AND MOSAIC RADAR TREND DISPLAYS. WILL INITIALLY LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED OR LOW CHANCE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND INTO THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. MODELS HINT AT RAMPING CONVECTIVE TYPE POPS BACK UPWARDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MODELS THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT/MOVE THIS PCPN PARTIALLY ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC COASTAL TROF/FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY DAYLIGHT TUE HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE ILM CWA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RAIN- COOLED AIR...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S BEING REPORTED. LATEST MODEL MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES TONIGHTS LOWS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM CURRENT VALUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CHANNELED INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY WHILE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS SLIGHTLY. MODELS SHOW LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY THAT MIGRATES INLAND AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE WRF IN PARTICULAR IMPLIES THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF PROSPECTS MAY MIRROR THOSE OF TODAY WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS STAYING AS ELEVATED AS THEY ARE NOW OR EVEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 2.25" AND ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL VORTS PORTRAYED IN THE WRF HAVE THE LOOK OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SHOW NO SPURIOUS DATA TO INDICATE SUCH. WEDNESDAY IS A BIT OF A TRANSITIONAL DAY...BUT COULD READILY SEE HOW THE AFTERNOON OFFERS UP HIGHER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF STORMS ALBEIT LESSER THAN TODAY/TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE BUT WE STILL HAVE A MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH LITTLE IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT MUCH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPANDING ACROSS THE EAST WILL CAPTURE A RETROGRADING CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND SWING IT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WKND. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...REPLACING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FROM MID-WEEK. WITH STRONG MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT...THU/FRI SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TEMPS AROUND CLIMO BOTH DAYS. THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WKND...LEAVING A DRIER COLUMN...BUT STILL TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES AND TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL. BEYOND THE WEEKEND DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SIGNALS POINT TO A STRONG RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THIS COULD BRING A RENEWED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KFLO/KLBT AND MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE SATURATED COLUMN AND ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE OUR INLAND TERMINALS. THE HRRR SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH NEARING KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR THESE SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING...WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/TEMPO IFR IN CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...LOCAL BUOY REPORTS/TRENDS INDICATE A RATHER SOLID 2 TO 3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL...EXHIBITING 7 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT TUESDAY. WITH AN OSCILLATING SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE...WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT IN IDENTIFYING A PREDOMINATE DIRECTION. THE SFC PG ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO WIND SPEEDS AT 5 TO 10 KT. AS FOR DIRECTIONS...THE LATEST SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO SUPPORT E TO SE DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WARM ATL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. AND WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT/MOVE TOWARD THE NW AND LIKELY PARTIALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AM HOURS OF TUE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...TUESDAY BRINGS A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AS A SURFACE TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST MOVES INLAND WHILE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SPECTRAL WAVE BULLETINS SHOW THAT A GENERAL 3 FT DOMINANT SEA STATE TO BE A NEARLY SINGULAR 7 SECOND WAVE SET. A MORE TYPICAL PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP ON THURSDAY AND THE ATLANTIC HIGH DOES APPEAR TO FLEX WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST A BIT. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ABOUT A 5KT INCREASE IN THE RANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS AND SHOULD INTRODUCE A 4 FT WIND WAVE TO MOST ZONES. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW WILL DRIVE SW WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE WATERS VERY LATE FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...AND A SPEED REDUCTION TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN OF SW WINDS. SEAS THU/FRI WILL RISE TO 4-5 FT AT TIMES THANKS TO THESE STRONGER WINDS AND A SE GROUND SWELL...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. THE WATERS WILL FEATURE LOWER AMPLITUDE SEAS ON SATURDAY OF 2-3 FT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...BJR/RJD

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