Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 200744 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 336 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS NOW PASSED WELL OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ODD POP-UP SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: IN WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE OVERNIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD LET MINS DROP INTO THE LOW/MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. BEACHES SHOULD HOLD AROUND 80 INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES. STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY. INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED. HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MODERATE SW WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 2O KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FADES. WINDS WILL TEND TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORT-WAVE PULLS OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY AND BRIEFLY WNW-NW EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEA SPECTRUM 3-4 FEET SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS...COMPOSED OFF SW WAVES 3 FT EVERY 5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS...MAINLY MIDDLE AND LATE EVENING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/SGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.