Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 200532 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 132 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND REMAIN ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BASICALLY A SOLID OVERCAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA...ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE BI-STATE REGION. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING/EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHEAST...AT THE SAME TIME...AN INVERTED COASTAL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. ESSENTIALLY EAST OF THIS COASTAL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...YOU WILL FIND SUMMER-LIKE WX CONDITIONS IE. WARM AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY. WEST OF THE COASTAL TROF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION...THE FA WILL REMAIN UNDER MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. OCCASIONALLY...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP FROM ANY LIGHT PCPN. HAVE BASICALLY KEPT POP CHANCES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING...JUST LIGHT SHRA OR DRIZZLE THAT WILL ONLY ADD UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT REMAIN BELOW 40 PERCENT. WILL ACTUALLY GO FURTHER LOWER TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...WHICH FITS WITH THE CURRENT/LATEST 88D PICTURE. WITH A SOLID MID-UPPER OVERCAST...DO NOT EXPECT TO OBSERVE ANY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP FLUCTUATIONS. JUST TWEAKED THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS INLAND THAT SHOULD SOMEWHAT RECOVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THAT HAD BEEN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL GIVE WAY ON SUNDAY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INCREASE MOISTURE RETURNING...PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...CAN EXPECT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER INLAND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BECAUSE OF THE WEAK STORM MOTION. WITH CLOUD COVER BUT RETURN WARM AIR EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE COAST ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA ON WED AND LINK UP WITH AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOP THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. AS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES...IT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY FRI AND SAT. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE DAYS WILL LIKELY BE WED AND THU WHEN TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH THE HUMIDITY TO MAKE IT FEEL AS IF IT WERE 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TUE WITH THE DECAYING FRONT AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY. HOWEVER...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL ACT TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON AND EVE CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS AREAS OF 1-2KFT CIGS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING THANKS TO AN UNSEASONABLE WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. IN FACT...KILM HAS ALREADY SEEN CIGS BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR AT WORST. SFC OBS INDICATE KFLO/KLBT ARE STILL BATTLING DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...SO FOG SEEMS EVEN LESS LIKELY AT THESE TERMINALS. AFTER 12-13Z...TODAY WILL BE VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH INLAND BEGINNING MID MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR KMYR/KCRE AFTER 18Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROF TO EXTEND FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A NE WIND FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND BASICALLY VARIABLE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. WITH A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...OR 5 TO 15 KT WITH THE 15 KT BEING QUITE GENEROUS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE COMPRISED OF A 2 TO A SOLID 3 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING ROUGHLY 8 SECOND PERIODS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS RUNNING 6 SECONDS. SOMEWHAT NEGLIGIBLE WIND WAVE INPUT INTO THE WAVE EQUATION EXCEPT WHERE THE NE WINDS A BIT MORE ACTIVE...IE. NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS AND SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 FEET OR LESS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT WILL WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS WED AND THU. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GROWS CLOSER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION ON TUE WILL BE FROM THE SE AND S. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO SW TUE NIGHT AND WED AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 6 FT THU AND THU NIGHT. SEAS ON TUE WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT AND UP TO 4 FT ON WED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/8 SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...BJR/8

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