Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261121 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND BUOY OBS SHOWS STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH A DEEPENING FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN SC. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED ALONG WITH IT...WITH THE COLUMN DRYING DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE UPPER LAYERS...AN H/5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS A COUPLE OF STRONG S/W TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST PLACES EARLY TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHUTTING DOWN FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COLUMN DRYS OUT. GIVEN PRESENT AND FORECAST PRECIP RATES IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. IT WILL BE MORE LIKE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP IN EARNEST AS THE DEEPENING SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING US AN ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY SET THIS MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. ONGOING COLD SURGE WILL LIKEWISE LEAD TO TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...POTENT VORT DRIVING A SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS FEATURE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFY...WHICH WILL THEN KEEP A SECOND...WEAKER...IMPULSE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...THUS KEEPING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM DRY. WHILE THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS FILTERED SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE...WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIMITED TO ONLY THE LOW 50S...UPPER 40S FAR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY WHEN MID-50S ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE DRY COLUMN COMBINED WITH CAA WILL KEEP MINS WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS AS WELL...DROPPING TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A NICE WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED AS FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THEN RIDGING BACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING A LONG DURATION OF WARM RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE ON MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY AS WELL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NORMAL AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE NEARING ILM AS IT TRACKS UP THE COAST. MODERATE RAIN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET BUT AS THE LOW PASSES...WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE LASTING THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL SHUT OFF AS THE DEEP MOISTURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EMERGING AFTER 21Z. STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACE WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BIT OF IT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG...VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO N/NW THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL RISE TO AS HIGH AS 20 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION...AND THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-6 FT...AND A SHORT SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY. AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT AND AND ON FRIDAY...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ANY HEADLINES WILL DROP. LATER ON FRIDAY THE WIND SPEEDS EASE THANKS TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT...AND SEAS BECOME 1-3 FT BY THE WKND. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BASICALLY OVERHEAD DURING SATURDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE STILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS KEEPS WINDS LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WKND...WITH A PREDOMINANT SW DIRECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY ON RETURN FLOW. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL DRIVE ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE SEAS OF 1-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/JDW

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