Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280348 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1148 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE COAST. THE REDEVELOPMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD BRINGING WITH IT HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT HAS ABATED... WITH THE APPROPRIATE STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A SLOWER APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE ILM CWA FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR... WILL NOW ADVERTISE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA BASED ON THE LATEST AND VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR RH THRU THE ATM ACROSS VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED MIN TEMPS....MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF CONTINUED SW WINDS CROSSING SSTS THAT ARE IN THE LOW 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARSHORE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET (200MB) INTENSIFIES THE PUSH FOR THE FRONT BECOMES NON EXISTENT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SIGNAL. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CERTAINTY BEFORE ADDING POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT I DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WONDERFUL DAY MONDAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND MIXING DOWN AT MAX HEATING. CERTAINLY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERALL I TWEAKED TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS BELOW 90 SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL AREAS WONT BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE PLOTS DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIGURATION WILL SUPPORT A STORM TRACK NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THAT MAY FOSTER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...WHILE AIDING IN SURFACE TROUGHING INLAND AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN DURING DIURNAL WARMING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES. THE LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY STANDARDS. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AS A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A LINE OF CONVECTION CONVERGING AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CIGS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD NOT RULE OUT VCSH/VCTS OVERNIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. ON SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WITH ONE MODEL SHOWING IT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST. ATTM...ANTICIPATE VFR ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AOB 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1115 PM SATURDAY...MAIN UPDATE WILL BE CONCERNED WITH KEEPING SW WINDS STEADY AT 20 TO 25 KT...WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. THIS BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE MUCH SLOWER APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE LOCAL WATERS TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY TIGHTENED SYNOPTIC SFC PG WELL INTO DAYLIGHT SUNDAY DUE TO THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO HOLD BASICALLY IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 6 TO 7 SECONDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL NEVER REALLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY ON THE ORDER OF 15- 20 KNOTS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE WINDS BEGIN A LONG DECENT DOWN TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JETTING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AS RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS PERSIST. BY MONDAY THE SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 828 AM SATURDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS INLAND SURFACE TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE YIELDING SW 10-20 KT FLOW. TSTMS MAY IMPACT INSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT BUT UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AT TIMES...AS INLAND TROUGHING SHARPENS INTO MID-WEEK. SPECTRAL DATA SUGGEST SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF 3 FOOT WAVES FROM THE SSW EVERY 6 SECONDS...AND 1-2 FOOT WAVES FROM THE ESE EVERY 7-9 SECONDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...SGL

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