Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190550 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 150 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOL CONDITIONS ON NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH AN AUTUMN CHILL LASTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...RADAR IMAGERY PICKING UP THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH ILM AT ABOUT 0050Z AND MOVED THROUGH SUT AT 0130Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF CKI AND MYR AND THEN CLEAR THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA BY 0230Z. A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST BEGINNING TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVE. WE EXPECT THIS NOTABLE FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN A DECIDEDLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...IT MAY GENERATE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5-6 KFT WERE SOLIDLY BANKED UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVE AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS FURTHER EASTWARD. HOWEVER MODEL PROFILES SHOW A PRONOUNCED FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. THUS EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT SUNRISE THROUGHOUT. AS COLD AND DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS...WE EXPECT WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM GAINING A STRONG FOOTHOLD. HOWEVER...ADVECTION ALONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. A FEW MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE FROM BBP TO EYF NORTHWARD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS ABOUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES SUNDAY WITH CAA ON NW FLOW. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SO LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE WITH ABUNDANT SUN AND LIGHT S TO SE WINDS. UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ON TAP. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRAY SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DIGGING 5H TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STATES MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING LATER TUE WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO WED AND THU. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS TUE ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND FROPA...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS UNLIKELY. DO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH FROPA. CLOSED 5H LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NJ COAST THU AND HEADS NORTHEAST FRI. THIS WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION FRI AND SAT WITH TEMPS CREEPING BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO. CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...VFR. BROKEN CLOUDS 6-10K AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOUDS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED SHORTLY AFTER 6Z AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. WINDS NORTH WITH GUSTS 12-18KT AFTER 13Z. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AROUND 23Z. EXTENDEDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC SHORT TERM...RAN LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC

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