Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 110543 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 143 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONGER FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREATS ARE SUBSIDING FOR THE NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE BALMY CATEGORY...MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE SEA...AND 80-82 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF COLLIDING BOUNDARIES AND STORM INTERACTION. ALOFT...SHEAR LINE DEMARCATING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING OVERHEAD AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE 300MB 100KT JET MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RFQ DIFLUENT REGION...IN A SETUP THAT RESEMBLES QUITE WELL A MADDOX-TYPE EVENT FROM LITERATURE FOR HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE. WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI INTO FRI EVE. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MID-LEVELS AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY AND THIS WILL HELP TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF ON SAT AS RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WORKS INLAND. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS ON SAT AS COMPARED TO FRI...WILL DROP POPS INTO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR SAT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN ON SUNDAY...SO ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...LIKELY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL LY NORMAL. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPS SUNDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE VALUES. THEREAFTER...HEAT WILL SLOWLY BUILD AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO SUBTLE THICKNESS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS DRIVES MORE TYPICAL CONVECTION CHANCES MONDAY/TUESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AND AREAS FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTING SOME OF THE TERMINALS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/LOW CIGS CREATING MVFR/IFR. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE. COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED...POSSIBLY CREATING MVFR/IFR DUE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AOB 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY CONVECTION. ON FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE INLAND SITES AT ONE POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORM. INTO THE EVENING HOURS CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...BUT ANTICIPATE RAINFALL TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A FEW TSTMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND SLIP OFF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF TSTMS EXPECT MODERATE SW WINDS OF 15 KT AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET OVERNIGHT...DOMINATED BY S-SSW WIND-WAVES IN 4-5 SECOND INTERVALS. MARINERS MAY WANT TO OBTAIN A FIX ON RADAR IF HEADING OUT TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS HOWEVER ARE NEEDED THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH ON FRI. EXPECT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST SAT...BEFORE THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND WINDS VEER TO E AND SE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WKND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 15-20 KTS LATE MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE RISING WINDS AND AN AMPLIFYING GROUND SWELL WILL DRIVE SEAS UP FROM 2-3 FT SUNDAY...TO 3-5 FT MONDAY...AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD NEAR TERM...REK/RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...SGL MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW/RGZ

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