Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141507 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1107 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A nearly stationary front will linger across the area into midweek, supporting the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front will gradually dissipate later in the week allowing for the return of more typical summertime heat and humidity along with a lower risk for thunderstorms. A cold front will approach during the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 11 AM Monday...No major changes were made to the forecast with the latest update. Morning stratus/fog have lifted with the day`s heating while a weak/nearly stationary front persists across the area. HRRR shows that the primary lifting mechanism today will be the sea breeze front, especially as convergence along the old boundary is very weak. Precipitable water values remain above 2 inches thus no reason why scattered showers and tstms could not develop. The loss of heating this evening will diminish the areal coverage of storms. Potential exists for areas of stratus and fog again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A front will meander across the Carolinas during this period. Tropical cyclone Gert will be moving N and then accelerating NE, passing several hundred miles off the North Carolina coast Tue. A mid-level shortwave trough will exert some added lift as it approaches Tue/Tue eve and this coupled with a surface boundary and high moisture content through a deep layer, precipitable water values will be upwards of 2.25 inches, will result in numerous to widespread thunderstorms and showers. The potential for excessive rainfall will be elevated in areas where cells are able to train. Storm motions will be on the order of 15 kt. Upper level support will be in the process of lifting out on Wed which should result in less convective coverage, so perhaps more scattered that day. High temps will be around the 90 degree mark and with high dewpoints, it will feel as if it were 100 to 105 degrees both days. Overnight lows will be in the muggy mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...A return to summer heat and humidity occurs late week as the mid-level trough finally gives way to SE ridging. This ridge amplifies in response to a trough digging across the west, and will drive increasing thicknesses, and hence temperatures, into the Carolinas into next weekend. Despite this ridge expanding from the Gulf Coast, heights locally may be relatively lowered thanks to several weak impulses moving to the north in the zonal flow across the Mid-Atlantic. These subtly steeper lapse rates will combine with PWATs Light southerly winds will continue to shift around to the NE to E as a cold front drops slowly south through the waters today. The boundary was just reaching the tip of Cape Fear running E to NE through the local waters. Winds will reach up to 10 to 15 kt out of the E-NE behind front. The on shore winds will push seas up from less than 3 ft this morning to near 3 with some 4 fters possible later today into tonight.still above 2 inches, and strong instability thanks to highs into the 90s to keep the chance for showers and tstms in place each aftn/eve through late week, although with coverage likely less than we have seen much of August so far. By Saturday, a cold front will dig through the OH VLY and then stall in the vicinity causing renewed good chances for convection and slightly cooler temperatures. However, with the ridge overhead this front may entirely dissipate by the end of the period instead of lingering like many of our summer-time fronts so far this season.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...Widespread LIFR/IFR status was impacting KFLO/KLBT and KILM. These terminals were along and N of a weak cold front. Visibility at these sites was IFR/MVFR in BR. At KCRE and KMYR, the low stratus was scattered and visibility was 5sm or higher. Conditions along the coast are expected to improve to VFR by 13-14z with conditions improving to MVFR at KLBT and KFLO. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and seabreeze with outflow boundaries invigorating new convection. We have included tempo IFR/MVFR conditions in thunderstorms along the coast between 14-19z and inland between 19-23z. The front is expected to get intermingled with the seabreeze boundary later this morning and this afternoon, but will remain in close proximity through the valid TAF period. Tonight, low stratus and fog will redevelop and we expect the coverage to again be widespread as winds above the boundary layer become light. We are forecasting IFR or lower at all sites after 06z. Extended Outlook...Numerous to widespread convection on Tue will result in flight restrictions. Convection should be more scattered Wed through Fri, but MVFR or lower conditions may briefly occur in thunderstorms. Low stratus and fog during the overnight and early morning hours through the period may result in flight restrictions as well. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 AM Monday...No major changes made with the latest marine forecast update. Southerly flow around 10 kt will prevail through the evening with the nearly stationary boundary positioned to the north of the waters. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...A weak front should remain generally upstream through the period as it meanders across the Carolinas. The front may briefly move out across the waters late Tue night or Wed morning. SW winds will dominate, although the wind direction may briefly take on a northerly or easterly component late Tue night or Wed morning. The strongest winds will occur Tue afternoon and eve, up to 15 kt. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Tue, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft during Wed. Gert will produce an easterly swell of up to 4 ft every 9 to 10 seconds Tue which will begin to decay on Wed. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Broad high pressure offshore will exert its influence across the waters through late week. This creates SW winds through the period, with speeds only increasing above 10 kt on Friday in response to a cold front approaching from the NW. The prolonged fetch around the offshore high pressure will allow a 1- 2ft/9sec SE swell to persist through the end of the week, but this will become masked by an amplifying 5 sec SW wind wave, especially the latter half of the period. These two primary wave groups will create seas of 2-3 ft Thu, rising to 3-4 ft on Friday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RJD

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