Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160230 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 930 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to the south Thursday through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday may be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week as a storm system moves across the Southeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: IR satellite loops and obs show rapidly clearing skies this evening with temperatures dropping down into the 40s. The front is now well offshore and expect an uneventful yet quite chilly overnight period. Forecast on track with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: Cold front accelerated off the coast a little after noon with cooler high pressure starting to build in from the west. Across western locations cold advection has begun with temps dropping 10-15 degrees in less than an hour. This trend will spread east over the next few hours with temperatures holding in the low to mid 50s. Cold advection will continue overnight with 20-30 kt northwest winds just above the shallow boundary layer funneling cold air into the region. Radiational cooling will be minimized by winds overnight, despite clear skies, but lows still end up dropping a few degrees below climo on the back of the cold advection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface high will build in from the west during the period as mid level trough in place Thu exits east and is replaced by shortwave 5h ridge Fri. The transition to ridging aloft will be accompanied by the surface high shifting off the southeast coast. Waning cold advection and the aforementioned mid level trough will keep temperatures below climo. May see some afternoon cloud cover, especially across inland NC Thu as moisture associated with weak, elongated shortwave dropping into the trough spreads over the area. Late morning through mid afternoon will be on the breezy side with 30-35 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. These strong winds aloft should mix down to the surface in the form of gusts. At the same time drier air filtering in will drop RH down near 30% (and possibly a little lower in places) and may lead to some fire concerns, although rainfall today should prevent issues. Wind speeds drop considerably with the loss of heating and weakening gradient Thu evening/night. Return flow develops on Fri with combination of low level southerly flow and increasing heights aloft pushing highs into the mid 60s Fri. Above climo temps continue Fri night with lows in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure moving east of the Bahamas on Saturday will produce a W-SW flow over the Carolinas. Clouds will spread northward ahead of a shortwave tracking across from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians late Sat into Sunday. Some pcp is also likely Sat night. By Sunday morning the low will be tracking off the coast with deeper NW flow developing as high pressure builds in from the NW. This will produce clearing skies and dry weather late Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Carolinas. The center of the high will be nearly overhead Mon night and will move off the coast to the east through Tues. This will allow a W-SW return flow to develop on Tuesday, but a cold front will begin to drop down from the north on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves across the Gulf Coast states. This should produce some unsettled weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures remain above normal with a slight cool down on Sunday, but otherwise temps into the 70s most days with plenty of sunshine over the next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with w to nw winds. Speeds tonight should run less than 10 kt. It is possible winds may diminish enough early for patchy MVFR BR to develop but the probability of that occurring is too low for inclusion in the TAFS attm. Wind speeds invof 10 kt are expected after 12Z with higher gusts possible. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR but look for gusty W and NW winds Thursday in wake of a departing low pressure system. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The cold front has now dropped well SE of the waters and NW winds of 15 to 20 kts are showing up at the buoys. Seas now range from 4 to 7 ft most places. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with no changes. Previous discussion follows: Cold front will move east of the waters shortly with offshore flow developing in its wake. Strong flow ahead of the front has pushed seas close to 10 ft at 41013 and with occasional gusts over 40 kt outside of convection. Switch from southwest to west- northwest winds will temper seas overnight but combination of pinched gradient and cold advection will keep offshore flow close to 20 kt overnight with seas gradually diminishing from the current 4 to 8 ft to 2 to 5 ft by the end of the period. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Gusty offshore flow continues Thu as gradient and cold advection are slow to weaken. West-northwest winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue through the day Thu before starting to decrease and become more westerly Thu evening. Seas will continue decreasing dropping to 2 to 3 ft by Thu evening. Winds drop under 15 kt Thu night, becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt Fri and Fri night as another weak low pressure system slowly tracks east along the Gulf coast. Seas will remain 2 to 3 ft Fri and Fri night. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... High pressure moving east of the Bahamas on Saturday will produce a W-SW flow over the waters around 10 knots. Saturday night into Sunday an upper level disturbance will move across the southeast. This may produce some variable winds, but the winds will shift to the NW as the sfc reflection tracks off to the east of the waters on Sunday and high pressure builds in from the NW. The NW winds will veer around to the a more northerly direction Sun night into early Monday as the high to the north moves toward the NC/VA coast. Seas will be on a general downward trend Sat into Sun as winds diminish and remain off shore. Overall expect seas less than 3 ft through the period.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RAN MARINE...REK/III/RGZ

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