Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290807 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 307 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Gusty south winds can be expected today and Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop, peaking Wednesday night and early Thursday as a cold front crosses the coast. Dry and seasonably cool weather will prevail late week and through Saturday. A chance for rain will return late in the weekend and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...A stout VWP depiction off KLTX early this morning, registering robust S winds 25-30 KT in the lowest few thousand feet, 50-60 KT WSW near 500 MB. A decaying pre-frontal line of showers will reach the I-95 corridor of NE SC and SE NC late morning to midday, though approaching isolated coverage. Weak convergence offshore may occasionally form a broken line of showers which could sail across the coastal zones briefly today and also isolated in coverage. Little forcing overnight will result in continuation of isolated POP values but the coast will become slightly favored as speed convergence increases over the coastal waters. Exceptionally mild temperatures, with minimums already realized in many locations after the tick of midnight, as warm air advection and low-level jetting gear up. These winds are mixing to the surface at times, producing wind gusts up to 25 MPH. Highs today in mix of clouds and pokes of sunshine will bring us well into the 70s, 72-79, cooler near the coast as marine encroachment is apt to occur this afternoon. The lows overnight will remain elevated, widespread 60s, mildest near the ocean but not by much.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 Am Tuesday...Primary headliner remains cold frontal passage late Wednesday, with a `Moderate Risk` (one tier below Slight Risk) Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front in a strong warm sector. Even without storms or showers, surface wind gusts from the SSW will reach 30 mph in most locations Wednesday. Any convection clearly could enhance these gust values. It still appears that a 1/4 - 1/2 inch range of rainfall could drop with this frontal system, shutting off early Thursday as the front navigates offshore with drier air in its wake. Temperatures 11-17 degrees f above normal by Wednesday. Record highs 11/30 include ILM 80, FLO 81, CRE 76.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Tuesday...Flat westerly flow across the southern CONUS will push broad surface high pressure across the Carolinas through Sunday. GFS/ECMWF indicate closed low will develop and drift across northern Mexico and into southern Texas by late in the weekend. Gulf moisture picked up in advance of this low will stream northeast as mid-level ridging amplifies over the east coast. The 00Z GFS is a little slower bringing this moisture into the forecast area...but will introduce chance POPs Sunday, trending higher on Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Strengthening southerly flow tonight will develop into gusts mid-morning that will persist through the daylight hours. Organized convection is expected weaken as it approaches from the west later today, and inland terminals stand a small chance of being impacted before it fizzles out. Have covered this with vicinity shower for now. Can`t rule out a brief, light shower advecting off the water and impacting the coastal terminals at just about any time, but chance is very small. Guidance is indicating ceilings and visibilities will begin to trend down before midnight. Extended outlook...Possible IFR late tonight/early Wednesday. Also, potential for MVFR/IFR in showers/isolated thunderstorms late Wednesday thru Thursday morning. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...The ocean is becoming hazardous, as strong SE winds up to 30 KT kick seas up this way. 5-6 foot seas this morning running every 6 seconds will accompany the gusts with a strong SSE chop in the nix. `Small Craft Advisory` flags will fly all day and night because of the approach of a strong frontal system. Isolated TSTMS will be possible by this evening, mainly quick moving showers today. Even on the ICW 30 knot SE-S wind gusts can be expected. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Rough conditions this period, improving late on Thursday as a strong frontal system rakes across the coast. Sea heights will build to 5-8 feet and hold through Wednesday into Thursday before subsiding late Thursday. SCA conditions therefor are expected most of this period, and offshore will remain treacherous. Isolated TSTM Wednesday and Wednesday night ending early Thursday over the 0-20 NM waters as storms reach the Gulf Stream, likely raging there. A wind shift from west will occur at or just after daybreak Thursday. Seas will need all of Thursday to recover though. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...The cold frontal boundary is expected to be south of the waters by Friday morning. A broad area of high pressure will remain centered west of the area through the period. This will result in a general northerly flow across the waters each day. The gradient will be modest and supportive of winds in a 10-15 knot range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...CRM

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