Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251728 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 128 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PASSES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...AFTER THE COOLEST MORNING SINCE EARLY JUNE LOCALLY...ANOTHER FALL-LIKE DAY WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA HAS DEVELOPED A SECONDARY CENTER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS THEN RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST ALL THE WAY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A LARGE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND BLOSSOMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL CREATE A COOL BUT PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY SUNNY DAY LOCALLY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE COOL ADVECTION ON NE WINDS...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MID 80S WELL SOUTH. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL CREATE A VERY NICE DAY IN THE CAROLINAS. THE ONLY CAVEAT INVOLVES THE LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE TRYING TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATER TODAY...CORRELATING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF SCHC POP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SHOWERS FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE LAND. INLAND ZONES WILL BE DRY TODAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED CAA ON NE WINDS AND A DRY COLUMN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 60S MANY LOCATIONS...MID 60S ON THE COAST AND SOUTHERN ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATE TUES INTO WEDNESDAY ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTHWARD THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY OFF SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PASSING CLOUDS OR A SHOWER IN STRONGER NE FLOW ON TUES BUT BY WED INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL OCCUR AS WINDS BACK TO THE N-NW. BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AS WINDS BACK AND LIGHTEN UP. THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT REACHING UP FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH LATE WED. THIS WILL LEAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UP THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO GET DISTURBED BY CRISTOBAL LEAVING A WEAKER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND CRISTOBAL BACKS THE WINDS AROUND AS THEY LIGHTEN OVER THE AREA. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS AIR MASS WARMS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL REACH BETWEEN 85 AND 90 FOR HIGHS AND WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES DRY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS CLOSER TO 60. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL BE FELT ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGHER SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAY EVEN SEE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIGHTEN AND IMPROVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS REACH THE LOCAL WATERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD LEAVING A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EAST BUT OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE SOUTH HOLDING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BUT HOLD CLOSER TO AN INCH OR LESS OVER OUR AREA. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE BACK UP WITH A WARMER MORE HUMID RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 90S OVER MOST PLACES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...THE STRATOCU HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOK FOR AN MVFR STRATOCU CEILING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF VFR AS THE CU SCATTERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW BURSTS NEAR 25 KTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ENHANCE THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...BUT WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG. TUESDAY...CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW...NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY HOWEVER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PUSH DOWN THE EAST COAST IS PRODUCING A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...WITH NE WINDS THIS MORNING OF 15-20 KTS AT THE LOCAL BUOYS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...AND GUSTS OVER 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A SEA SPECTRUM CONSISTING OF HIGH-AMPLITUDE NE WIND WAVES AS WELL AS LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 4-7 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND CRISTOBAL MAKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE DISTANT ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TUES. AS CRISTOBAL TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED WINDS WILL BACK AND LIGHTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 20 KTS BACK AND LIGHTEN. SEAS UP TO 5 TO 7 FT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED IN WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW BUT A LONGER PERIOD 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PEAK WED EVENING. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS BUT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND SHIFT AROUND LEAVING A LIGHTER RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. OVERALL SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH LINGERING SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL. SEAS UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FT THURS MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43/JDW MARINE...JDW/RGZ

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