Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 131912 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 312 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Unsettled weather may continue through Sunday night ahead of a stronger cold front. Dry and much colder air will build in for Monday and Tuesday next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will remain parked off the Southeast US coast while a mid-level ridge axis draws nearer. This will bring a notable increase in 1000-500mb thicknesses from around 556dam this afternoon to around 562dam tomorrow afternoon. The result will be very warm temperatures for this time of year with low 80s expected away from the coast. Record highs for our climate sites in the upper 80s are more than likely safe, but still, it will feel like the middle of Spring outside. However, with low-level flow backing to southerly, the sea breeze should have an easier time advancing inland than today, limiting coastal areas to the 70s. Very dry air mixing down today will remain a concern tomorrow as the source of dry air just above the boundary layer remains in place. Thus, relative humidity should bottom out in the 20s, with some of the driest spots dipping below 20%. Given the past few days of sunny skies and very dry afternoons, fine fuels will continue to dry out and will begin to pose a risk of quick fire spread if ignition were to occur. Tonight`s lows will end up near to slightly above normal as dewpoints rebound into the 40s this evening, leading to mid-upper 40s for lows. With light or calm winds expected, some normally cooler spots may dip to near 40F.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A pair of upper level disturbances will cross the Carolinas this weekend, providing two potential shots of showers and thunderstorms. Neither look particularly strong and forecast rain chances are currently 50 percent or less for each system. Surface high pressure will drift away from the Carolina coast Thursday night into Friday, allowing unseasonably warm air to bleed northeastward across the Carolinas. Thursday looks warm but Friday looks even warmer as 850 mb temps of +13 to +14C support highs in the lower 80s for all but the immediate coast. Moisture should increase from the west late Friday afternoon as the first upper disturbance approaches and this should support increasing coverage of showers. Forecast soundings show enough depth of conditional instability to support thunder chances in the forecast, but rapid storm motion should keep precipitation totals rather low. A synoptic cold front pushed southward by low pressure off coastal New England should stall in the Cape Fear region Saturday morning. Despite the increase in low level convergence with the stalled boundary, drier and warmer mid levels should limit instability to a shallow layer below 750 mb and forecast PoPs Saturday are being capped at 20 percent. The second upper disturbance will reach the area late Sunday, accompanied by a similar increase in mid level moisture with attendant increases in forecast shower and thunderstorm potential. Unlike yesterday, the Canadian and ECMWF have both shifted their QPF max southward with this system, leaving the GFS as the only model suggesting high precip chances locally. I`m limiting PoPs to around 40 percent Sunday night. Another surface low moving across southern Canada will drag a cold front toward the Carolina coast late Sunday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A Canadian cold front will push farther offshore Monday, allowing colder and much drier Canadian air to spread across the Carolinas and offshore. 850 mb temps look to fall below 0C Monday night, bottoming around near -5C during the day Tuesday. A breezy boundary layer Monday night should keep temps from crashing (forecast lows are currently upper 30s inland) but Tuesday night could be touchier as the center of the Canadian high approaches and winds drop off. After highs only in the upper 50s Tuesday, Tuesday night`s lows could dip low enough for frost to become a concern. There`s plenty of time to watch trends on this. Otherwise dry weather is expected through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR expected to persist through the TAF period. Deep mixing beneath sunny skies and subsidence aloft will permit occasional gustiness with speeds up to around 15 kts or so. A sharp sea breeze will remain pinned near the SC coast with slow northward progress into the Cape Fear region bringing a wind shift to southerly behind it. Winds will quickly subside near and after sunset with light and variable flow expected through the night. With high pressure well offshore, a weak south to south- southeasterly flow should become dominant by midday tomorrow. Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions through Friday morning. A couple cold fronts will affect the area over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday night and again from Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE...
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Through Thursday... Surface high pressure will remain off the coast of the Southeast US through the period, bringing benign marine conditions. Southerly wind waves of 1-2 ft with a period of 4 sec this evening and tonight will settle down to around 1 ft for Thursday. A healthy sea breeze can be expected tomorrow as southerly winds help to push it inland, with gusty winds behind it. Thursday night through Monday...High pressure off the Carolina coast will drift farther offshore Friday as a cold front advances eastward across the Southeast states. Initially light southwest winds Thursday night will begin to increase on Friday, peaking near 20 knots late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday night. It still appears we will get through this event without a Small Craft Advisory becoming necessary. Objective model blends only show a 20-40 percent chance of gusts reaching 25 knots Friday evening. Winds should diminish and become variable in direction Saturday morning as the front stalls across Cape Fear. Wind directions will turn back to the southwest again Saturday night into Sunday as another frontal wave reaches the Carolinas by Sunday night. As this system clears offshore Monday morning increasing northwest winds are expected as sprawling Canadian high pressure begins to build southeastward.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...ABW MARINE...TRA/ABW

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