000
FXUS62 KILM 141915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL AIR ALOFT AS BASE OF H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED FLAT CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH THE SETTING SUN AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING FROPA HAS KEPT A LID ON
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST PLACES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS IS ABOUT A
CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. HAVE ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DOWN BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT THIS.

A DRY AND COOL FORECAST WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A DECOUPLED WIND REGIME AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF OUR INLAND AREAS AND LOWER TO MID 60S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM WEATHER AFFECTS THE AREA.  OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL VARY FROM VERY BROAD TROUGHING TO PROGRESSIVE/FLAT
FLOW. AS A RESULT THE PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE CONVECTION WISE BUT WITH
LIMITED STRENGTH. FIRST AND STRONGEST FEATURE OF THE PERIOD MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TUE. SURFACE LOW IS ENHANCED BY
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TUE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY THE PERIODS
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING MOISTURE MON
AFTERNOON LEADS TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. PRESENTLY ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE STORMS.

INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ENHANCE CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK
WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER SUMMER TIME TYPE STORMS
AT THIS POINT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH HANDLE OF COLD FRONT WED-FRI.
ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GFS IS DRIER WED/THU AS
IT PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRI BOTH GFS.ECMWF PORTRAY A WETTER SOLUTION...THOUGH ARRIVE AT THIS
SOLUTION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. GFS LIFTS THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT BACK
INTO THE AREA WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS IT IN THE REGION THROUGH FRI. AT
THIS POINT A BLEND OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS COMPARES FAVORABLY TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST SO NOT PLANNING MANY CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PROBABLY TOO DRY AT THE LOWER LAYERS TO SUPPORT
FOG. SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH GREAT AVIATION CONDITIONS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. PRESENT NORTH WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH MOVES IN...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS ARE IN THE
2 TO 4 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WINDS DIMINISH...DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE ON
SAT WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY SAT
AFTN. BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN
3 FT SAT INTO SUN WITH A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH STARTS TO
INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT
BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA EARLY WED BUT ON TUE WINDS WILL
EXCEED 15 KT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. FRONT ENDS UP STALLED IN THE
AREA WED/WED NIGHT. WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS LIGHT BUT
DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH RESPECT
TO THE WATERS. GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM SOUTH OF THE WATERS TO
NORTH OF THE WATERS...FOR NOW SLIGHTLY FAVOR NORTHERN SOLUTION. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT MON BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WEAKENS THE GRADIENT AND ALLOWS
SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT FOR WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL