Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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694 FXUS62 KILM 260013 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 813 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along the coast tonight through late Monday. Drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday before return flow on the west side of the Bermuda high brings back more moist and warmer air.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...With a front stalled across the area bringing cloud cover and much cooler temperatures than recent days the atmosphere has struggled to destabilize enough to support meaningful rain chances. A cluster of activity is moving up the coast from SAV to CHS but this area has heated up to the low 90s ahead of the front. Perhaps the GFS offers the best solution in showing this activity moving up the coast later this evening in a weakening state as it encounters more stable air, the entire complex being driven by a fairly weak shortwave. Overnight the WRF continues to favor areas along and west of the front which is perplexing. Will continue to follow the GFS and favor coastal areas but carry POPs just a bit inland from the GFS solution in deference to the WRF and the SREF. Towards daybreak Monday this boundary pushes offshore nearly ending rain chances area-wide. The exception may be the immediate beaches where some guidance continues to show some very light precipitation lingering behind the boundary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be off the coast by the start of the period as broad 5h trough settles over the eastern CONUS. Troughing helps push a cooler and drier air mass into the region for Tue and Tue night. Some low level moisture may linger in the area Mon night and the push of the cooler and drier air does not really develop until daytime Tue. Shortwave rotating around the base of the 5h trough Tue will spread PVA over the region around the time of peak heating. This could generate some convection along the weak/pinned sea breeze but there will already be an increasing amount of mid level dry air which should work to limit coverage. The shortwave will be accompanied by an increase in moisture in the 700- 500 mb layer. Will carry chance pop along the coast Tue afternoon and evening with slight chance inland. There is a fair amount of low level dry air and if storms are able to develop some could tap into the increased downdraft CAPE. An isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out but the bulk of the activity would be weaker showers and thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the shortwave and the base of the 5h trough moving in, small hail seems unlikely. Freezing level is over 12k ft and CAPE within the hail growth zone is stunted. May end up seeing storms with lower tops, if forecast soundings turn out to be correct. Shortwave moves off to the northeast Tue night, helping to spread cooler and drier air into the forecast area. Temps end up below to well below climo with lows in low 60s and an outside shot at some isolated upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become established across the forecast area through much of the period. Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday. At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period with little larger scale forcing forcing present. High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Convection became numerous to widespread along and ahead of a cold front which has been slowly dropping southward across the terminals this eve. KLBT is N of the front and expect VFR here as drier air works in. The showers will generally shift S of the remaining terminals through about midnight. Brief MVFR may still occur with any showers and thunderstorms this eve. Overnight, have included some patchy MVFR fog at the coastal terminals and there is a risk for IFR ceilings, but at this time, only show this occurrence at KILM. MVFR ceilings will be possible across the southern terminals overnight. On Mon, any convection should be confined to the more immediate coast and our forecast has VFR conditions throughout after 11-15z. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A front stalled just inland for most of the overnight hours followed by a push offshore Monday morning. SW light winds overnight will thus yield to some pretty light and variable flow on Monday due to the weakening nature of the boundary and its associated pressure field. Seas will average 2 to occasionally 3 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Light onshore flow at the start of the period will quickly transition to offshore as front moves east of the waters and high pressure starts building in. Large scale wind field will remain from the northeast through the end of the period. However, a weak sea breeze develops Tue afternoon with nearshore winds becoming onshore with a slight bump in speeds/gustiness. Speeds for much of the period will be on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. There will be an increase in northeast flow Tue night a cool air surges down the coast. Speeds could approach 15 kt late in the period. Seas will run around 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period from the southeast.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...RJD

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