Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 121325
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
925 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a warming trend through the week as high pressure shifts
offshore. Rain chances will then return late Friday as a cold
front approaches the area with unsettled weather at times
lasting into early next week as the front lingers near the
area. A stronger cold front could then move through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dew points are trending too warm this morning. Minor adjustments
were made to account of afternoon mixing and the development of
a sea breeze this afternoon. This will be a tricky forecast, but
inland areas are likely see minimum RH near critical thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a cool morning, decent warming trend in store for today as mid
level ridge dominates from the south and surface high pressure
shifts offshore. High temps today in the low 70s, a good 10F warmer
than yesterday, with clear skies. This will kick up a sea breeze in
the afternoon keeping the immediate coastline a bit cooler. Still
quite dry, though with slight moisture rebound as dewpoints only
drop into low 30s, possibly upper 20s, with daytime mixing. Low
temps tonight new normal around 45F with a few high clouds passing
overhead.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights: Dry with above normal temps; no significant hazards
expected
Confidence: High
Details: Atlantic high pressure extending westward should hold firm
across the local area with mainly zonal flow aloft. This pattern
will keep moisture and forcing limited and rain-free conditions are
expected. Temps will remain above normal, warming to near 80
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights: Above normal temperatures (except possibly Mon) with
rain chances starting Friday; very low risk for severe storms Friday
and Sunday
Confidence: Moderate to High
Details: Warm and dry weather should persist into Friday but
moisture and forcing will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches. The front could limp into the area Friday night as zonal
flow continues aloft, then likely stall and shift back north of the
area as a warm front ahead of some weaker waves of low pressure and
eventually a stronger cold front. Thus, periods of unsettled weather
are a good bet late in the week into early next week, although it
shouldn`t be a complete washout. At this point we have the highest
rain chances later Friday and later Sunday. There could even be a
few strong to possibly severe storms Friday and Sunday due to strong
deep layer shear, although the amount of instability is uncertain
(as is usually the case). Temps should stay above normal through at
least Sunday night, then fall closer to normal on Monday with highs
possibly not reaching 70 in spots.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. Clear skies with some high clouds tonight. Predominantly light
southwest winds less than 10 kts during the day, with a
southerly sea breeze at MYR and CRE by 18z with gusts up to 15
kts.
Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions
through Thursday. Next frontal system due by late Friday, which
appears to be the next remote threat to the flight categories.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions through tonight as
surface high pressure maintains influence, with center of the high
moving off the Southeast coast during the day. Winds out of the
southwest through tonight, sustained 10-15 kts this afternoon with
gusts up to 20 kt and a sea breeze developing as inland temps reach
low 70s. Seas generally 1-2 ft, with brief surge this evening to 2-3
ft as SSW wind chop increases. 1 ft 10 sec E swell continues to
impact local coastal waters.
Wednesday through Saturday...No significant concerns this period
with high pressure in control until a cold front approaches late in
the period. Winds could reach Small Craft Advisory levels Friday
night but otherwise winds should stay mainly 20 kt or less with seas
mostly 4 ft or less. Could also see some sea fog develop over the
cooler nearshore waters starting Friday as warm, moist air moves
into the area.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO