Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 302211 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 611 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TIL 10 PM. STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES THIS EVE. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WHILE THEY WERE UPSTREAM. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...LBT TO MAO AND WESTWARD. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF A EYF TO GGE LINE LATER THIS EVE. SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF 5H TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AL/GA IS GENERATING SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS FAR LOCALLY VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. A LOOK AT DEWPOINTS DOWN STREAM SHOWS VALUES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES F HIGHER ACROSS INLAND GA/SC. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...JUST AS THE PVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DRY AIR PRESENT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 600 MB. LOW LEVEL JETTING IS LIMITED AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL...25 KT OR SO. HOWEVER MID LEVEL DRY AIR DOES MAKE THE CASE FOR A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR INLAND DARLINGTON/MARLBORO ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD HAVE TROUBLE LINGERING PAST LATE EVENING. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL PLAY A LARGE PART IN ENDING STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR LATER IN THE PERIOD. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT IT WOULD BE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP. DEBRIS CLOUD AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE TROUGH. AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION THEY WILL WEAKEN. AT THE SURFACE...THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY WILL BE INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT POP EACH DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY SOUTH ON FRI AND THIS SHOULD REACH FAR ENOUGH INTO NC TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND BERMUDA RIDGE OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND LOCAL BOUNDARIES INCLUDING SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL COME INTO PLAY AS INITIATING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE AREA ENHANCED LLJ UP TO 40 KT. A STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ACT TO DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO KEEP BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT DOWN A LITTLE CLOSER. OVERALL WILL KEEP WITH MOISTURE RICH FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH AND SOME PERIODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA AND SOME PERIODS OF SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT CONVECTION BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN FORECAST EACH DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z TUESDAY...THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SW AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT S-SSW AT 15-20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT SKIES CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VCSH COULD DEVELOP MAINLY SC TERMINALS MID- LATE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PROGS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE IS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF VCTS WILL BE A KFLO/KLBT. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO SW 4-8 KT. VCSH COULD A BIT LONGER AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THAN IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR CONTINUES WITH WEST WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED AS GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. SPEEDS CURRENTLY 10 TO 15 KT WILL PEAK ON THE HIGH END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANY LINGERING CONVECTION PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF STORMS OVER THE WATERS BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL DURING THIS EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WILL PEAK AROUND 4 FT LATE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED 5 FT POSSIBLE NEAR 20 NM. SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE WIND SPEED REDUCTION. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AROUND 20 MILES OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOCAL NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL IS SHOWING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET WITH 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND BERMUDA RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW DUE TO BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO OUR WATERS...BUT MAY VEER WINDS AROUND A BIT TO A MORE SW FLOW RATHER THAN S-SW. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A SE SWELL TO PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-5 FT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES IN THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT GETS PINCHED IN THE LEE OF THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FLOW. MAY SEE PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION AND WNA SHOWS SEAS SURPASSING SCA THRESHOLDS LATE FRI INTO SAT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/III SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR

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