Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300606 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1259 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN TO COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FORECAST CONTINUES AS BEFORE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS: MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY WITH COLD FRONT DRAWING NEAR WITHOUT AN OPEN DOOR FROM THE GULF. UPPER SUPPORT OF MODERATE STRENGTH HOWEVER BASED ON PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS POWERING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IN BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL HOLD NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES UP AND LOOK FOR RISING TEMP CURVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS AT 00Z WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE AT 12Z FRIDAY SO A ROLLER COASTER OF A-TYPICAL TEMPERATURE FUN. WINDS GO NW NEAR DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT HITS THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA WILL CREATE A SUNNY BUT COLD FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL MOST OF THE DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE JUST WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S BY DAWN ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT OVERHEAD ON INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE...AND A BKN/OVC MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MINS MUCH WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO AROUND 32...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TO SHIFT EMPHASIS TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE PERSISTENT LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND IF ANYTHING A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN COVERED IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. STILL ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL QPF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MEANDERS SEEMINGLY FOREVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A QUICK MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM STILL DOESNT APPEAR TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. IF FURTHER CYCLES SHOW PHASING A MORE PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED. LONG STORY SHORT...WE NOW HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. OVERALL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MOST PART. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MITIGATED BY MOISTURE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL MORESO BECAUSE OF LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY RUN FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO MOISTURE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN -SHRA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR AREA. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO -SHRA AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR FROM 09-13Z. TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SW WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL RACE OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z...AND CLOUD COVER WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 00Z SAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN REACHES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT OF WIND WILL SQUELCH WAVE GROWTH POTENTIAL BUT CERTAINLY APPEARS 25 KT GUSTS ARE FAIR GAME BY 9Z IN WIND WEST SO ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 3AM ALL WATERS LOOKS GOOD AND WAS RETAINED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO BE EXPECTED AFTER 3AM ON THE WATERS...WHILE TSTMS REMAIN MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM FARTHER OUT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD WILL LEAVE STRONG NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL REACH 20-25 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THESE WINDS...EVEN AS WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. A W/NW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT...BUT WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL FALL AS WELL...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON A QUICK SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFFSHORE WITH THE WIND DIRECTION MAKING THE TYPICAL PROGRESSION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MONDAY DIMINISHING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. MODEST SEAS FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK

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