Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260222 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1022 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...QUITE A FEW MORE CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON INLAND THAN WAS ANTICIPATED. THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATED MOISTURE EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 6500 FEET BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT. UP THE COAST AT MHX THERE WAS LESS MOISTURE PRESENT OVERALL EVEN THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING DIDN`T BEGIN UNTIL NEAR 700 MB. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE MAINLY TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BRUSHING THE COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR. MOTION IS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRAND STRAND DOWN THROUGH GEORGETOWN IS IN THE PATH OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FORECAST POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. AS INLAND TEMPERATURES COOL AND A POCKET OF MUCH DRIER AIR AT 850 MB ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO MEANS THE MARINE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS TO EARLY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES...WINDS...AND SKY COVER...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...CREATING FALL-LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE STRUGGLED ONLY INTO THE LOW 80S THANKS TO COOL NE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EAST OF I-95. THIS CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION ON NE FLOW...AND SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AS EXPECTED...AND DEPICTED ON HIGH RES HRRR THROUGH THIS AFTN. THESE SHOWERS DO NOT FEATURE CONSIDERABLE DEPTH...AS COLUMN MOISTENING EXISTS ONLY TO ABOUT 10 KFT /700MB/...ABOVE WHICH VERY DRY AIR EXISTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THANKS TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING THIS AFTN OR EVE...EVEN AS SHOWERS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT. DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN AFTER DARK...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MIDNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 MPH EVEN AFTER DARK...CONTINUING THE CAA...AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO 62-67...COOLEST NORTH...IN A DRY AND CLEAR COLUMN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...NE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ABATE LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WILL BE MOVING TO THE NE...HUGGING 70 DEG WEST LONGITUDE AS IT MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE TUE NIGHT AND WED. NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED. EXPANSIVE RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE MANAGE TO BRUSH THE COAST ON TUE...BUT THE RISK IS VERY SMALL. WILL CALL FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS WHICH MAY BRUSH THE COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON WED. ALONG THE COAST...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS TO THE MID 80S WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUE NIGHT AND MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE FOCUS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY . A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SLOWLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A MORE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS WELL. THERE IS A BACKDOOR FRONT STILL IN THE PICTURE FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BUMP THE TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. REGARDING POPS...VALUES INCREASE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY TO LOWER CHANCE BY MONDAY. THIS PRIMARILY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH FRIDAY TO WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND CLIMATOLOGY LEANING TOWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWEST...MAINLY OFFSHORE. COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO TO MOVE OVER ONE OF THE COASTAL SITES...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THEY WILL CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS AND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. OVERALL...VFR PREVAILS WITH FEW/SCT/BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL...AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. GIVEN INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT LIGHT...PATCHY FOG INLAND. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... BASED ON BUOY AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS I HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP BY A FEW KNOTS FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE PROTECTED PORTION OF THE COAST BETWEEN BALD HEAD ISLAND AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL NEAR THE BAHAMAS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY AND OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL HAS AMPLIFIED AND REACHED THE WATERS...AND IS SHOWING UP AS 2-3FT/10SEC AT THE BUOYS. THIS SWELL...ALONG WITH A 5-7 FT NE WIND WAVE...ARE TOGETHER IN THE WAVE SPECTRUM PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 4-7 FT THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS INTO TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY WED AND WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KT TUE... BECOMING 10 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTERNOON. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NE TUE...BUT WILL SLOWLY BACK TO NNE OR N TUE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING WED AS THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DOMINATES. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT TUE...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. A 10 TO 12 SECOND SE SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...VERY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DIRECTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE BACKING THE DIRECTION EACH AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALL SPEEDS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF TEN KNOTS. BENIGN SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1-3 FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...WITH THE AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE SHORE. THIS LEAVES THE WATERS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE HIGH...AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL NEAR THE BAHAMAS...PRODUCING PERSISTENT AND STRONG NE WINDS LOCALLY. THESE NE WINDS ARE PUSHING WATER TOWARDS SHORE...AND LOCAL TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING +1 TO +2 FT TODAY. THESE ANOMALIES WILL RISE ON TOP OF A NEW-MOON ENHANCED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG ALL EAST FACING BEACHES. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED FOR ABOUT A 1 HR WINDOW BOTH SIDES OF HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS AGAIN BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION...AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE GRAND STRAND OF SOUTH CAROLINA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GEORGETOWN COUNTY. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR INLAND NEW HANOVER COUNTY. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL PENDER AND COASTAL NEW HANOVER COUNTIES. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDW

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