Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160811 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 310 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to the south Thursday through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday may be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week as a storm system moves across the Southeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: IR satellite loops and obs show rapidly clearing skies this evening with temperatures dropping down into the 40s. The front is now well offshore and expect an uneventful yet quite chilly overnight period. Forecast on track with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: Cold front accelerated off the coast a little after noon with cooler high pressure starting to build in from the west. Across western locations cold advection has begun with temps dropping 10-15 degrees in less than an hour. This trend will spread east over the next few hours with temperatures holding in the low to mid 50s. Cold advection will continue overnight with 20-30 kt northwest winds just above the shallow boundary layer funneling cold air into the region. Radiational cooling will be minimized by winds overnight, despite clear skies, but lows still end up dropping a few degrees below climo on the back of the cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface high will build in from the west during the period as mid level trough in place Thu exits east and is replaced by shortwave 5h ridge Fri. The transition to ridging aloft will be accompanied by the surface high shifting off the southeast coast. Waning cold advection and the aforementioned mid level trough will keep temperatures below climo. May see some afternoon cloud cover, especially across inland NC Thu as moisture associated with weak, elongated shortwave dropping into the trough spreads over the area. Late morning through mid afternoon will be on the breezy side with 30-35 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. These strong winds aloft should mix down to the surface in the form of gusts. At the same time drier air filtering in will drop RH down near 30% (and possibly a little lower in places) and may lead to some fire concerns, although rainfall today should prevent issues. Wind speeds drop considerably with the loss of heating and weakening gradient Thu evening/night. Return flow develops on Fri with combination of low level southerly flow and increasing heights aloft pushing highs into the mid 60s Fri. Above climo temps continue Fri night with lows in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Thursday...Shortwave axis traversing the area in the mid levels Sunday morn while deep and low layer moisture move offshore. Low level thermal trough axis will move off the coast early so even though boundary layer winds remain northerly there will be enough temperature recovery for a mild afternoon. Over the next few days some impressive pattern amplification will be underway with the Carolinas just downstream of the developing ridge axis. A fairly strong upper low will traverse TX/Mexico and move into the Gulf over the midweek period but continues to slow in model guidance. Its local effects if any will be relegated to beyond the long term. The proper part of the forecast period will thus feature increasing warmth unless some of the older and less favored quicker southern branch solutions pan out.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 06Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hr Taf Issuance Period. A bkn deck of altocu clouds at 7k feet will move off the SC coast by 07Z. Only clouds there-after will be occasional jetstream thin cirrus. Winds will stay active thru the period due to a tightened sfc pg, combined with CAA that will occur now thru early this aftn. Will also see gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range from generally 15Z to 22Z as stronger winds aloft mix down to the sfc. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions Sat night thru Sun due to the passage of a low pressure system. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The cold front has now dropped well SE of the waters and NW winds of 15 to 20 kts are showing up at the buoys. Seas now range from 4 to 7 ft most places. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect with no changes. Previous discussion follows: Cold front will move east of the waters shortly with offshore flow developing in its wake. Strong flow ahead of the front has pushed seas close to 10 ft at 41013 and with occasional gusts over 40 kt outside of convection. Switch from southwest to west- northwest winds will temper seas overnight but combination of pinched gradient and cold advection will keep offshore flow close to 20 kt overnight with seas gradually diminishing from the current 4 to 8 ft to 2 to 5 ft by the end of the period. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday...Gusty offshore flow continues Thu as gradient and cold advection are slow to weaken. West-northwest winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue through the day Thu before starting to decrease and become more westerly Thu evening. Seas will continue decreasing dropping to 2 to 3 ft by Thu evening. Winds drop under 15 kt Thu night, becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt Fri and Fri night as another weak low pressure system slowly tracks east along the Gulf coast. Seas will remain 2 to 3 ft Fri and Fri night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Though an upper disturbance will be swinging through on Sunday the surface gradient will remain quite light. NW winds of around 10kt may occasionally gust to 15. High pressure then slides by to our north turning wind from NW to NE. Little change in seas or wind speed expected.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH

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