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771
FXUS62 KILM 150256
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1056 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure developing along a front to the north Wednesday
will maintain modest to high chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Dry weather will develop by Thursday after a CFP,
and will continue thru Friday. Increasing rain chances likely
this weekend as the next storm system moves into the area from
the west.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Kept POPs in the slight to low chance category for much of the
night. Given the weak embedded s/w trofs aloft moving across.
Mainly in the form of showers with isolated thunder at best.
Could see activity fire up off the coast and offshore where
those warmer SSTs will help fuel the convection. Some tweaking
of hourly temps/dewpoints based on latest obs and trends but
kept generally tonights mins themselves within a degree of the
previous fcst. For Marine, the SE winds from earlier have veered
to the S and SW as I type. Gusts from hence forth may likely be
topped at 25 kt. Seas generally 4 to 7 ft ILM SC Waters and 5 to
8 ft ILM NC Waters for the remainder of the night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast soundings show deep layer saturation at the current
time. This has hampered instability and lightning this
afternoon has been hard to come by. This may change from SW to
NE as some subsidence behind meso-low currently moving through
kicks in but most convective guidance doesn`t really show precip
filling back in much. With such deep moisture and a moderately
well defied trough to our west it`ll be tough to ever go with a
precip-free forecast through tonight but POPs will taper down to
chc/schc thresholds. Mid levels do partially dry out tomorrow
allowing for some sunshine and much healthier destabilization,
possibly to the tune of 1500-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. The WRF
develops some aggressive LL lapse rates and has values closer to
3000 J/Kg but this seems overdone. SPC continues to advertise
MRGL with a wind and hail threat as we lose some of the
directional shear that was present today. After a cloud cover-
caused mild night tonight tomorrow afternoon`s temperatures will
be seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering showers and thunderstorms for Wed evening, especially
over the Cape Fear region as the upr trough swings through and
some mid-level moisture remains in place before drying overnight
as flow aloft veers to the WNW. Low-level moisture will be
slower to erode, however, which means a partly to mostly cloudy
sky into the day Thursday. Highs in the low 80s. Continued dry
into Thursday night with an axis of weak sfc high pressure
directly over the area...light winds and low temps in the upr
50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still a fair bit of uncertainty in the long term period. It will
likely rain at some point this weekend with upr-level energy
expected to not miss to the north or south. First shot of rain
is Friday night through Saturday in association with lead
shortwave energy out ahead of the upr-level trough axis, with NW
areas most likely to receive rainfall. Second chance is
Saturday night into Sunday as the trough axis and sfc cold front
swing through, but timing this as well as the amount of mid-
level moisture available is difficult this far out. General
drying trend then into early next week with the front pushing
offshore. Temps close to climatological norms this period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convective coverage should become more isolated by mid to late
evening. And will be able to even remove VCSH or VCTS.
Otherwise, main concern will be the IFR low stratus and
potential for fog/dense fog during the pre-dawn Wed hrs as winds
veer to the WSW-SW and diminish. The low stratus will likely
extend thru mid-morning b4 mixing and the days heating combine
to transition the stratus to cumulus. Thunderstorms are expected
to return by midday tomorrow as we destabilize and the
approaching upper s/w trof pushes across. Have included a PROB30
for thunderstorm activity from 18Z-24Z Wed aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions possible early
Wed evening from thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions to
dominate Thu thru Fri. The next system with potential flight
restrictions to affect the area this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday... Low pressure to our west and high pressure
off the coast through the period. The system to our west will
progress east on Wednesday pushing a front into the area veering
flow from SE to SW tonight while the gradient relaxes slightly.
It will likely take until Wednesday for wind and waves to drop
below thresholds and no changes have been made to the current
SCA, the wind waves representing much more of the wave presence
than the 1 ft easterly swell.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Improving marine conditions
from Wednesday night through Friday as weak sfc high pressure
builds in allowing for winds and seas to decrease. Over the
weekend, pressure gradient increases slightly ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west, with southerly winds up to ~15
kt on Saturday. For now, conditions though look to remain below
SCA thresholds both ahead of the front and behind it late
Sunday as CAA is weak.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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Other - Rip Currents:
SSE-S 5 to 8 second period wave will affect the area beaches,
with those South facing beaches susceptible to Moderate to High
rip risk as a result. All other beaches, looking at Moderate rip
risk. All beaches should have S to N Moderate longshore except
for Brunswick beaches experiencing W to E Moderate Longshore.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MAS/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH