-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 140928 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
458 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...AFTER AN ACTIVE WEATHER EVENING WHERE MULTIPLE
WARNINGS WERE ISSUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL FEEL QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH LESS MUGGINESS AND RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S TODAY...LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER THE SC ZONES. AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...MODERATE N WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THEN DIMINISHING TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 60S WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S ANTICIPATED BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...REPRESENTING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF JUNE 15TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD UP FROM THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL FLATTEN OUT
BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NW TO W THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM INTO OUR
AREA BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND MID TO HIGH MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. AIR MASS
WILL MODIFY VERY SLOWLY WITH ONLY A 2 DEGREE C RISE IN 850 TEMPS
FROM SAT TO SUN. BASICALLY EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR DAY TIME HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF
THE COAST WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A DEEPER SW FLOW DEVELOPS. PCP
WATER VALUES WILL RETURN BACK UP BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUES PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH
UP AROUND 30 KTS ON TUES ALLOWING FOR AN EVEN FURTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION ON MONDAY WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS MUCH FARTHER WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS ON MONDAY
MAINLY INLAND BUT BY TUES CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ACTUAL FRONT MAY BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES A
FLOW MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WITHOUT GIVING IT A PUSH OFF
THE COAST. THEREFORE THE FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE CAROLINAS
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER TUES
THROUGH THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

A MAJORITY OF THE TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF SC. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST AOB 5 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE NC WATERS AS SEAS RECOVER FROM
SLOWLY DAMPENING SOUTH WAVE ENERGY. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND
THEN EASING WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSIDING
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS 3-5 FT SEAS EARLY
WILL DROP TO 2-3 FEET TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ACTIVE TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...BENIGN SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND THEN FURTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE ON
SAT WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY SAT
AFTN. BY LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN
3 FT SAT INTO SUN WITH A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT HEADING INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. BY TUES THE WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH VEERING SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL PRODUCE A RISE
IN SEAS UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY LATE MONDAY AND 3 TO 5 FT BY TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL/8