Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 242324 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 724 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FORCING DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. A FEW TINY SHOWERS...THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE MOVED SE ACROSS PENDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND THEN OFFSHORE. THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR THE DAY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SWING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO POUR IN. ASSOCIATED CU FIELD WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. EXPECT A DRY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST MINIMUMS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 25TH ARE ILM-50 LBT-45 FLO-48 MYR-52 AND CRE-55. SOME OR ALL OF THESE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CREATES COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WKND. WHILE THE WKND WILL BE PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BENEATH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LATE SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO 4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. STRONGER CAA SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 70S EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING VORT WILL TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH SAT NIGHT...BUT A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WHICH EASES THE CAA AND HELPS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 80. LIGHT WINDS IN THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL PERMIT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT...WITH MINS FALLING TO 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO AROUND 50 EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD CREATES SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MINS FALL ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS AN ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE ONLY POPS FOR OUR AREA ARE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES LATE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TUESDAY BEFORE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WHICH WILL ALL BUT PUT A LID ON CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REFLECT THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY TRENDING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE THEY REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NNW WINDS AOB 10 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY. N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE DAY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER 18Z...AND THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER OUR CWA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:30 PM FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR WATERS BUT HAVE RAISED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF OUR MARINE ZONES IN ITS PLACE. NORTH TO NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. AMZ254 OFFSHORE OF HORRY COUNTY WILL STAY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES FOR THIS ZONE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CREATE N/NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING MUCH WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAK 2FT/8SEC SE SWELL WILL KEEP WAVE AMPLITUDES LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...1-3 FT...HIGHEST EARLY SATURDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-15 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHER END TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES COURTESY OF A WAVE MOVING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN AS WELL WITH 2-3 FEET WITH MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK

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