-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 190529
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
129 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will increase on Friday as a cold front moves across
the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining
elevated rain chances. High pressure next week leads to drying
conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Observations outside of the area tonight are showing some ground
fog around with a cloud shield to our north associated with the
incoming cold front. Minor changes made to temps/cloud cover
overnight. Updated 06Z aviation discussion below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The above normal temperatures will continue tonight. A back door
cold front will sink about half way across the area overnight. As
this boundary weakens it will lift back to the north very slightly
stalling in the Cape Fear region. Later Friday another cold front
will approach from the west while some paltry vorticity maxima
approach. Forecast soundings show rapid moistening through a deep
layer as ample instability develops. SPC highlighting the area for
Marginal Risk. Given the instability and healthy veering with height
could see the need for a higher outlook level in future forecasts or
at least some small tornado probs. Overall storm coverage may be low
however given the weakness of the mid level lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some of the low-level vorticity maxima (such that it is) will
continue to move through the area Friday evening, which will keep up
some of the rain chances. Should have less instability from the loss
of daytime heating, but it still lingers around regardless, and
there are still 30-40kts of bulk shear to play with. It`s possible
to capture a strong storm inland, particularly with damaging winds
hitting the surface (confidence is still pretty meager). Rain
chances taper off during the overnight hours as the surface front
pushes offshore. Lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday, the front stalls offshore, while weak low pressure along
the front may bring a shower or thunderstorm inland. Warm and nearly
muggy, with highs in the lower 80s. Northwesterly flow brings in
slightly cooler air...lows Saturday night in the mid- to-upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday, the front pushes further offshore, but a strong surface low
forms along the Georgia-South Carolina coast and pushes
northeastward. This brings a much better shot at showers and a
couple of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, particularly closer
to the coast. Clouds and rain, combined with the cooler low-level
flow out of the ENE, will bring mild highs in the mid-to-upper 60s.
Lows Sunday night in the lower 50s.

Old frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure finally
pushes out of the area for good Monday afternoon. Cooler air left in
the wake, with highs Monday in the mid 60s, and lows Monday night in
the mid-to-upper 40s inland, near 50 at the coast. A few coastal
showers may remain Monday morning, but should push offshore by the
afternoon. Cloud ceilings lift and gradually clear out.

High pressure Tuesday brings clear skies and moderating temperatures.
Highs in the low-to-mid 70s, lows in the lower 50s.

Another frontal system looks to move through the area Wednesday and
Thursday, but for now, it looks like a pretty dry front, with the
majority of the forcing well to the north. Forecast guidance looks
strangely consistent on this idea so far out, but I would maintain a
healthy skepticism. Temperatures continue to warm up to the lower
80s Wednesday, with a modest cooldown after the frontal passage by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Primarily VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Cirrus is
passing over the area currently, primarily NE SC, with a IFR
cloud deck located to our NE with the incoming cold front.
Winds will be light and variable with a bit of an easterly
component as the front stalls through our area around daybreak.
This front will lift back north with winds becoming more
southerly by the afternoon along scattered showers/storms.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the period due
to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure
building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Backdoor cold front veers the winds tonight over
mainly northwestern zones. This front will then lift back to the
north Friday allowing SW flow to return area-wide albeit gradually.
The small wind chop will accompany a minor high pressure-induced SE
swell.

Friday Night through Tuesday...SSW winds at 5-10kts Friday night
become more variable Saturday and Saturday night, due to a stalled
front over the waters. Pressure gradient increases Sunday as the
front slowly moves further offshore. Northeasterly winds kick up to
15kts, with gusts up to 20kts. Seas at 2-3ft increase to
northeasterly wind waves at 3-4ft. By Monday and most of Tuesday,
winds vary slightly between NE and NNE, and a few gusts may try to
reach up to 25kts, and a few waves may get up to 4-5ft out 20nm from
shore. Not Small Craft Advisory thresholds yet, but wouldn`t be
surprised if the forecast trends in that direction over the next few
days. Winds decrease Tuesday and gradually veer more easterly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MBB/IGB