000
FXUS62 KILM 131946
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MARKED WARMING
TREND FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMUP AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO MAKE
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 70 IN A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WHILE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND
BASE OF TROUGH WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH OF LOCAL AREA KEEPING MOST
CLOUDS AND ANY WEATHER TO THE NORTH. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. VALUES UP CLOSER TO .75 INCHES THIS
MORNING WITH MOST MOISTURE FOCUSED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN DEEP DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30 MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM DIRECT COAST. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...ASIDE FROM PASSING CLOUDS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
BY THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND CAA WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT. 850
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 3C BY DAYBREAK TUES MORNING. ALTHOUGH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LIE TO OUR WEST....BUT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
IN CONTINUED CAA AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE HAS LOW
TEMPS DROPPING TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES. FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD
VALUES.

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 14TH

ILM (WILMINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) 44
FLO (FLORENCE REGIONAL AIRPORT) 43
LBT (LUMBERTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT) 43
CRE (NORTH MYRTLE BEACH- SHORT LENGTH OF RECORD) 47

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS NORTH
OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH ALLOWED FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE AREA...WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE EXPANDING OF A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. RETURN
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SFC HIGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON THE UPGLIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE LOW 50S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB EVEN MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATES ITSELF OVERHEAD SPREADING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST
AND UP INTO THE MID 80S INLAND. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE COASTAL AREAS
REACHING WELL INTO THE LOW 80S GIVEN THE DECENT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BE A MATTER OF HOW QUICKLY THINGS WARM UP BEFORE THE
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS BASICALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE WEAK INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE FROM TIME TO TIME
AS WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES CROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND...ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE...WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCE
OF WEATHER. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING THU NIGHT AND FRI MAY ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHILE WEAK RIDGING LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. KEEPING THU DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED
FROM EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGE. FRI WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR
THE PERIOD. HAVE BUMPED FRI POP TO LOW CHC. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC POP SAT THROUGH MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX HAVE
NOW EXIT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...AND WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATION COOLING EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT FOG. SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT
MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY UNDER
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MORNING LOW CLOUDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE AND ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING JUST UNDER 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS IN GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUED CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ILM
NC WATERS...AND LIKELY A SOLID 15 KT ACROSS THE ILM SC
WATERS...THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND THEREFORE WILL
DROP AS WINDS SUBSIDE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT ILM NC WATERS...WITH THE 5
FOOTERS RESERVED OFF CAPE FEAR...AND 2 TO 4 FT ILM SC WATERS. LOOK
FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THOUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BEGIN WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS NORTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KTS. INTO WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KTS...CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BEGIN AS 2-3 FEET EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO 3-5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MIDDAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS BUT
GENERALLY SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...HIGHEST IN AFTERNOON. SEAS
RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL STARTING TO TAKE HOLD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB/SGL
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ/DL