-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
422
FXUS62 KILM 181058
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
658 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring unsettled weather through Sunday
before cooler and drier weather arrives Sunday night and
persists through early week. Warmer temperatures and a gradual
increase in rain chances is then expected mid to late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Have trended pops down quite a bit through early afternoon to
around 20-35%. Latest hi-res CAM guidance show only widely
scattered light showers through midday, and that might be
overdone based on the lack of expected pops overnight. Still
expected some convection this afternoon with low end severe
chances, with additional pops late evening with cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak isentropic lift will produce scattered light showers and
increasing low clouds through this morning. There may be a break
in overall shower activity late morning-midday, around the time
a pseudo-warm front lifts north across the area. A positively
tilted shortwave trough moves across the Southeast today,
initiating convection in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Breakup timing of the abundant low level clouds late morning
will play a role in how much sunshine we get which will aid, or
hinder, instability. Currently, guidance has sufficient
instability and shear present beginning this afternoon to
warrant a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather from
SPC, for isolated strong winds possible. Better rain, and
possibly thunderstorm, chances may come late evening-early
tonight as the upper trough reaches the Carolinas and a cold
front moves across, with a focus on our northern counties. Areal
QPF is meager, however there may be isolated pockets of 1-2"
through tonight. Chance for fog tonight behind the cold front.
High temps today around 80F with dewpoints near 70F, and lows in
the mid 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate Sunday
*Moderate to High Sunday night through Monday night

Details: Offshore low pressure looks to move farther away Sunday
with drier high pressure building in from the north Sunday night.
Unsettled weather will likely persist Sunday, possibly into the
evening, as moisture lingers behind the front and an upper trough
moves through. Fortunately, severe weather and flooding are not
expected.

High temps will remain cooler than normal through the period,
possibly not much warmer than the mid 70s Sunday and mid to upper
70s Monday. Lows should mostly be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
*Low severe storm/flood risk possible Friday/Saturday

Confidence:
*Moderate to High through Thursday night
*Moderate Friday through Saturday

Details: Cool, dry high pressure should prevail through Tuesday
night with temps near to below normal. Expect temperatures to rise
to near to above normal levels thereafter as high pressure to the
north shifts offshore setting up more southerly winds. It should
remain dry until low rain chances return later Thursday and likely
increase a bit through late week as a cold front approaches. There
is some uncertainty regarding the strength/location of the front so
for now we have kept rain chances pretty low. We may also see a low
risk for severe weather/flooding return starting Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid cloud deck around 5-8 kft has persisted over the area. Low
stratus, and expected showers, have both not materialized as
expected overnight. Have included a few hours of MVFR ceilings
at TAF sites through midday, though confidence isn`t the
greatest. Best chance of thunder remains this afternoon into
evening hours, with scattered convection possible. Timing of
cold frontal passage tonight may determine chances for fog
development inland by Sunday morning.

Extended Outlook...The next storm system and associated
periodic flight restrictions will continue to affect the area
Sat night into Mon. VFR to then mainly dominate thru Wed while
high pressure takes more control.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Benign winds and seas across the local coastal
waters tonight, with main hazard being a chance of thunderstorms
late afternoon into overnight hours. Scattered showers possible this
morning through midday with isolated thunder threat. Winds generally
out of the SW around 10-15 kts into tonight before turning offshore
by Sunday morning as a cold front moves off the coast. Seas continue
to linger around 2 ft, with 3 footers in the outer coastal waters
during the day, combination of a wind wave, a 1 ft ENE swell, and a
1 ft SE swell.

Sunday through Thursday...Offshore low pressure will be moving
farther away as high pressure returns from the north into mid week
before shifting offshore later in the period. The cooler/drier
weather will lead to a tight pressure gradient and elevated
winds/seas through Monday but a Small Craft Advisory is not
expected. Conditions will then improve into mid week as high
pressure moves closer to the area. Winds should increase Thursday as
a stronger afternoon sea breeze develops.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB/VAO