-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 231922
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND USHER
COOLER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING A GRADUAL WARM UP AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GREATEST THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE MINOR FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN UNDER SLOW-MOVING
AND TRAINING STORMS. AN ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF WIND OR HAIL IS OTHERWISE
UNLIKELY.

ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WHICH IS
ITSELF MOVING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION. TROUGH IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH...WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH MUCH DRYER. THE FRONT IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY OFFSHORE BY AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE ENDED BY AROUND
SUNSET AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. A SECOND MINOR ROUND OF SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILE AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IT COULD COME THROUGH COMPLETELY DRY.

GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS SO WENT WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS GIVES US LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. THESE NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY EXPERIENCING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN
AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE SE NC COAST BUT MID
LEVEL DRYING WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP BY MIDDAY. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND 5H TROUGH ARRIVES FRI
AFTERNOON. DESPITE PASSAGE OFF COLD POOL OVERHEAD DURING PEAK
HEATING DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY AFTERNOON PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW OVERPOWERING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THINK EVEN CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SUBSIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS OFF SLOW BUT
GAINS STRENGTH WITH PASSAGE OF 5H TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR BY MIDDAY OR SO AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR DROP AS COLD AIR
ARRIVES. BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE ON BREEZY SIDE.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW SAT WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY DESPITE
PLENTY OF LATE MAY SUNSHINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STRUGGLE TO
REACH HALF AN INCH...ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT WITH 850 TEMPS STRUGGLING AND
ULTIMATELY FAILING TO REACH 10C. HIGHS SAT STRUGGLE TO REACH MID
70S...FOR MOST AREAS 80 DEGREES SEEMS UNOBTAINABLE.

FRI NIGHT WILL BE A DECENT THOUGH FAR FROM AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG RADIATION COOLING
COMPONENT LOWS STILL END UP WELL BELOW CLIMO. MOST AREA WILL DROP
BELOW 50 WITH INLAND AREAS POTENTIALLY REACHING MID 40S...A
TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION. WEAKENING COLD
ADVECTION AND AIR MASS MODIFICATION OFFSET WHAT SHOULD BE BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
FRI NIGHT...THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST AREAS. SOME GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON IF/WHERE THIS DEVELOPS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER...KEEPING LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY SHIFTS OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 850 TEMPS
STARTING OUT AROUND 8C ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK UP TO 15 C BY LATE
TUES. DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY WILL CREEP BACK UP
REACHING OVER 60 BY MID WEEK. THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY WILL CREATE
GREATER DIURNAL SWINGS WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO THE LOWER END
OF 50S ON SUN NIGHT BUT REMAINING IN THE MID 60S BY MID WEEK. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TUES THROUGH THURS TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW TO W FLOW THROUGH WED BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST BY THURS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFF SHORE BUT WILL RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING MON INTO TUES SO WILL THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CU
BUILDING UP AND LOW END CHC OF LOCALIZED SHWR ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY.
OVERALL...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIMITED SHWR ACTIVITY AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RESULTANT...SO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE SPARED. TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST FIRST AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS...SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. ILM
MAY SEE AN IFR CEILING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS.
BECOMING VFR FRIDAY WITH A DRYING NORTHWEST WIND...GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MORNING FOG MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SW TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS OF RIGHT AROUND 4 FT.
SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS TURN TO THE SW.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
FRI WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. COMBINATION OF TIGHT
GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL HAVE WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
20 KT SUSTAINED FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS
DECREASE FOR SAT AS COLD ADVECTION AND GRADIENT WEAKEN. WINDS VEER
TO MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
SLOWLY DROPPING. SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15 KT SAT BEFORE DROPPING NEAR 10
KT SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 5 FT IN STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FRI WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT FOR SAT IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING WINDS.
SEAS MAY BE QUITE TREACHEROUS DESPITE LACK OF HEADLINES WITH STEEP
NORTHWEST WIND WAVE ON TOP OF SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY MONDAY. LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE N TO NW WINDS ON SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BACK SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. SEAS WILL STAY
LESS THAN 3FT MOST WATERS AND NEAR SHORE WILL BE DOMINATED MORE BY
THE SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID WEEK WHEN A WARMING TREND
OCCURS ALLOWING FOR A BETTER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO SET UP. BY
MONDAY AFTN WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN SEAS THROUGH
MID WEEK BUT OVERALL REMAINING 3 FT OR LESS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE
AND CHOP EACH AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43