Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291801 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 101 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATES. SKY COVER INCREASING NOW...SO MAXIMUMS SHOULD GO ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES AT BEST. THE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS. SHORT WAVE NORTH TO SOUTH RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EASTWARD...ACROSS THE FA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN...BOTH HIGH AND MID LEVEL OPAQUE CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECENT MID- LEVEL S/W TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...WILL PUSH ENE TO THE NE STATES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST...WILL PUSH ESE AT A GOOD CLIP THRU TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 POPS AT BEST SINCE NO TAPPING OF THE GULF OCCURS...AND ANY ATLANTIC MOISTURE THAT GETS DRAWN IN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. LATEST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 30S LATE TODAY AND/OR TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL UPSTREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROFS OF VARYING STRENGTH...TO COMBINE AND PRODUCE A NEARLY FULL NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LATITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTH TO THE NE GULF COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL HELP QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY DAYBREAK FRI...TAKING THE ISOLATED PCPN WITH IT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MINS AS THE 1ST GUESS GIVEN ITS DECENT PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD SEE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AND ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. DEEP NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS WILL START OUT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. THE STRONG CAA WILL ONLY BE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS MOST PLACES AND MAY SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW PLACES REACHING 50 UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AT THE SURFACE. WILL SEE MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING COME SAT NIGHT. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS IN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF FRI INTO SATURDAY INCREASING A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. OVERALL A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN MORNING WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT COME TOGETHER. STRONG LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF SHORE MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY MON EVENING WITH A DEEPER DRIER AND COOLER NW FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT MOVING SWIFTLY EAST REACHING OVERHEAD TUES AND THEN OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WED BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE GULF ON WED AND MAY SPREAD CLOUDS AND PCP FAR ENOUGH NORTH WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POST COLD FRONT TUES THROUGH EARLY WED REBOUNDING TOWARD NORMAL BY WED AFTN. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT IN AND OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP...HOWEVER COASTAL TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY GET ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AROUND 06-07Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY VFR IN THE LIGHT CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MORNING. FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1 PM THURSDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY MIDDAY. LOOKING AT VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE-S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AHEAD OF IT...WILL RESULT IN SW-W WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FOLLOWING PERIOD ILLUSTRATES NW WINDS 20-25 KT AFTER THE CFP EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS PERIOD INTO THE 1ST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FETCH FOR WHICH SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO BUILD FROM. THE WATERS EXTENDING FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYRTLE BEACH WILL LIKELY OBSERVE SLIGHTLY HIER SEAS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WSW-W WIND TRAJECTORY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. DEEP NW FLOW AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS. THE STRONG OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE WITH UP TO 5 TO 6 IN OUR OUTER WATERS. AN SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EAST AND OVERHEAD BY AFTN. A WEAK RETURN FLOW MAY SET UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MOVING INTO SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING AND UNDER 3 FT BY SAT EVE UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWIFTLY OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW MOST OF THE DAY INCREASING OUT OF THE S-SW BY SUN NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THIS TIME PUSHING SEAS UP FROM DOWN BELOW 3 FT EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY EARLY MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY MON NIGHT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE NW TO N ALLOWING SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DL/8

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