Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FXUS62 KILM 180548
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
148 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal trough will bring light showers overnight ahead of
a stronger cold front expected to move through the area early
Monday morning. Below average temperatures and breezy
conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Warm and sunny
weather returns during through the middle of the week. Rain
chances return on Friday and Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure
moves northeastward.
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.UPDATE...
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Chances for measurable rainfall are dwindling tonight as dry air
is winning. Lowered POPs over the next several hours, best
chances now at the coast. Updated aviation discussion below.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
One piece of a pre-frontal trough is moving through and what
little activity there was with this feature has almost fully
dissipated. The main mid level system to the southwest will move
by later tonight and most guidance shows light showers mainly
across southern areas in and around 0600 UTC. Yet another weak
boundary will move across in the wake of this activity and
hopefully provide enough wind and lower dewpoints to preclude
low clouds and or fog. Sometimes the relative lull between the
first front and main thrust of the cold air advection (expected
tomorrow night) is troublesome. Lows tonight should once again
drop to the middle 50s and highs Monday with the aforementioned
subtle cold air advection in play reaching the middle to upper
60s.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front pushing offshore Monday night will bring cold air
advection and breezy winds. Low level mixing and lingering cloud
cover will keep overnight temperatures in the upper 30s. Frost
appears unlikely due to winds within the well mixed nocturnal
boundary layer. Vort max moving overhead may squeeze out a
sprinkle across eastern NC prior to midnight and should keep
cloud cover overhead through the early morning hours.
Cool air will have a brief residency on Tuesday as mid level
flow quickly turns zonal after sunrise. West winds during the
afternoon will begin to advect warm air across southern NC and
SC. Sunny skies and the cooler air mass will keep afternoon
highs in the upper 50s. High pressure to the south will maintain
light winds overnight, capping overnight lows around 40
degrees.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the Gulf Coast will produce sunny skies and
clear nights through Thursday. Warm on Wednesday ahead of a dry
cold front Wednesday night. Slightly cooler on Thursday as
cooler air works its way into the FA by Friday.
High pressure to the northeast on Friday and a Gulf Low to our
south will lead to an unsettled weekend. Low pressure will ride
northward along a coastal trough sometime on Friday. This will
keep rain in the forecast through at least Saturday afternoon.
Cluster analysis shows the main source of uncertainty will be
timing of this system. Conditions could deteriorate as early as
Friday with a faster and stronger coastal low. A weaker and
slower storm would primarily impact the region Saturday and
early Sunday. Regardless, ensembles seem to be fairly consistent
that this storm will impact the area in some form or fashion.
No severe weather concerns at the moment, but a slight shift of
the surface low inland could produce some elevated instability
in a dynamic environment. Stay tuned.
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.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Have VCSH in at coastal
terminals for the next couple hours as the axis of rain shifts
closer to the coast and then offshore. Occasional gusts
15-20kts are showing up at several obs stations ahead of the
front which is still further inland so kept increased wind
speeds through tonight. Winds will shift to out of the NW
closer to daybreak as the front moves offshore with a gradual
return to west winds through the day. Another surge will arrive
towards the end of the period with stronger NW winds.
Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday... A southwest flow a couple of knots either
side of 15 will continue through the early morning hours. A weak
boundary will move across at this time to shift the winds to
offshore. With little to no cold air advection (push) behind
this boundary winds will trend more toward ten knots than
fifteen. The wave spectrum will be unimpressed with the winds
and remain around 3 ft.
Monday Night through Friday... High pressure and cold air
advection on Monday night will create breezy conditions and deep
mixing across the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will
be in effect through midday Tuesday. Gusts up to Gale force are
possible early Tuesday, mainly around sunrise south of Little
River Inlet. Conditions improve rapidly on Tuesday as mid level
flow becomes zonal and surface winds turn westerly. Another
surge Tuesday evening could approach SCA criteria briefly. This
surge may be brief enough to avoid an advisory.
Quiet conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday even behind
a dry cold front Wednesday night. A developing coastal trough
and approaching coastal low will likely bring another round of
unsettled marine conditions beginning late Thursday night into
the weekend.
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.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT
Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.-- End Changed Discussion --
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$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/21