Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 132328 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 728 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BRINGING UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...A QUIET RADAR THIS EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE GREATER NE SC/SE NC AREA...WITH ONLY LONG DISTANCE ECHOS BEING DETECTED AROUND 175 MILES SW OF KLTX OVER SCREVEN COUNTY GEORGIA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FAIR SUMMER NIGHT WEATHER WILL SETTLE LOCALLY OVER OUR REGION UNDER AN ARID STACK OF AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. THROUGH THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...A MOIST SW WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL. NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING MAY KEEP FOG OCCURRENCES AT BAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH 15-20 KT SW WINDS DEPICTED BY NAM-12 ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUN-DOWN INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. ANTICIPATED MINIMUMS TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT AMID INCREASING SW WIND. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO LOWER 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST...MILDEST AT BEACHES AND AREA EXPOSED TO SW WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM OTHER THAN DELAYING THE HIER POPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING TUE THRU TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIKE PREVIOUSLY SAID HOT AND HUMID MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROF AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA...AND POSITIVELY TILTED DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR MONDAY...A RATHER ROBUST CENTRAL CAROLINAS SFC TROF...THE PIEDMONT TROF...IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. BETWEEN THIS TROF AND THE WELL AMPLIFIED BERMUDA SFC HIGH RIDGING/EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA...THE SFC PG WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN RESULTING IN SW-WSW WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION BY MIDDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO INCREASING THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN. IN FACT...EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST RESULTING FROM COASTAL FRICTIONAL WIND CONVERGENCE FROM THE DECENT ONSHORE SSW-SW WINDS. THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF WEST OF THE ILM CWA WILL ALSO FIRE CONVECTION THAT MAY DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. HAVE PEAKED POPS IN THE CHANCE CRITERIA FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUE...A MID-LEVEL VORT OR S/W TROF TO FIRE CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TUE MORNING THAT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE NE AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS. THEREFORE TUE MORNING WILL SEE MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF DAYLIGHT TO TUE...WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND MESH WITH THE PIEDMONT TROF TUE AFTN AND NIGHT. MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT EVER-SO SLIGHTLY...THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE HIER POPS TO LATER TUE AFTN AND MAINLY NIGHT FOR THE ILM CWA. AT THIS POINT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR POPS...WITH CATEGORICAL LIKELY TO BE ADVERTISED AS WE APPROACH THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT. SEVERE WX REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE ILM CWA SEEING SVR WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF THE DAYS INSOLATION IE. BEST INSTABILITY...SVR OCCURRENCE MAY BE LIMITED COME TUE NIGHT. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...REMAINED ON THE HIER SIDE OF AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR MAXES BOTH MON AND TUE. FOR MINS...STAYED WITHIN MODEL MOS CONSENSUS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE AN ACTIVE SSW-SW FLOW ACROSS SSTS IN THE 80S...WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND 80S FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A DEEP AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE AREA THAT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED. WEDNESDAY LOOKS THE MOST UNSETTLED WITH THE ACTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL CHANCES MAY TAPER LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT BY THEN BUT SHOULD ALSO BE WEAKENED. ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND THE FLOW MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE WSW AS OPPOSED TO SWRLY DIRECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT COULD GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RADAR IS QUIET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MOIST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SFC WIND OVERNIGHT TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF FOG. STILL THINK TEMPO MVFR STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. S-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AFTER MIDDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/TSTMS/TEMPO MVFR LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 715 PM...NEAR TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REGIME. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT SINCE THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP WILL SEE A TIGHTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW WINDS MAY HOLD AT 15 KT FOR THE MOST PART. CLOSER TO SHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WANES WE WILL SEE WINDS VEER TO SW OVERNIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN 2-3 FOOT SEAS...MAINLY IN A MIX OF SSW WIND WAVES OF 2 FEET AND SE WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS OR SO. NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS FROM BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE REALIZED MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON THRU TUE NIGHT. RIDGING FROM THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE/HIGH SEAS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO EXTEND WESTWARD...WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS THRUOUT THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW-SW WIND DIRECTIONS WITH INCREASING SPEEDS STARTING EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THRU TUESDAY. THE SFC PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY...BECOMING A PLAYER TO THE OVERALL WINDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE SFC PG BETWEEN THE TROF AND BERMUDA RIDGING TIGHTENING...LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT DURING MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT. SPEEDS MAY SURPASS 25 KT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR WHICH MAY REQUIRE A SCA...WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SEE A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THE PERIOD. BOTH WAVEWATCH3 AND LOCALLY RUN SWAN MODELS INCREASE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THRUOUT THE PERIOD... MAINLY RESULTING FROM LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES COMBINED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT SMALL. THE BOTH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AND BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT... POSSIBLY UP TO 6+ FT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR...LATER MON NIGHT THRUOUT TUE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT...FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR JULY. AS THE FRONT STALLS VERY NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE MAINTAINED BUT THE SLACK IN GRADIENT COULD KNOCK WIND SPEEDS DOWN BY A FEW KTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT HIGHER WEDNESDAY WHEN BUILT UP SEAS FROM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN THEIR SUBSIDING TREND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR

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