Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 041027 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 628 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...VAPOR ANIMATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOW THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...AND THE STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IN TIME WILL BECOME A COLD-CORE CUT-OFF LOW OVERHEAD OF SE NC AND NE SC THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS REMOVED VOLATILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND SUPPORT ALOFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A LOW-TOPPED TSTM TODAY. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH WIND GUSTS IN CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF THE INVERTED TYPE SOUNDING PROFILES DEPICTED BY AFTERNOON. BREAKING CLOUDS WILL AID LOW-LEVEL HEATING BY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT WILL CURTAIL ANY CONVECTION. LOWS INTO DAYBREAK IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MID 50S TO AROUND 60. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET-UP AS COLD-CORE UPPER LOW DIPS OVER THE AREA IN PEAK HEATING THURSDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES UNFOLDING. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE CHILLINESS ALOFT. SUNSHINE WILL BE HAD BETWEEN SHOWERS AND OFTEN CALLED RAINBOW WEATHER WHEN THE SUN ANGLE FALLS BELOW 40 DEGREES OFF THE HORIZON. A COOL PERIOD AS WELL WITH LOWS DEEP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S IN SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY AS THE COLD POOL LIFTS N AND DRYING SETS IT FROM THE NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND AND A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST...ANTICIPATE FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL AND FOR A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS TO WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OR REMAIN JUST NORTH AS IT STALLS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO OVER ONE INCH WITH SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...THOUGH MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS RIDGING CONTINUES. EVEN THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WRAP UP THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING THROUGH ILM AT THIS TIME...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF IFR IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE COAST BY 13Z...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO MORE WEST NORTHWEST. SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE CONVECTION HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND MAX HEATING. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SW WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN SHIFTING TO W-WNW LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO SEA. NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT FAR AWAY FROM CAUTION CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AND 5 FT SEAS OUTER PORTION. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL POSE A SLIGHT TREAT OF 40 KT WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE WINDS THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER SEAS INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH. SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 35 KT THU AND FRI TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6 SECONDS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE WATERS...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 FT ON SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...43

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