Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 180548 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A pre-frontal trough will bring light showers overnight ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move through the area early Monday morning. Below average temperatures and breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Warm and sunny weather returns during through the middle of the week. Rain chances return on Friday and Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward. && .UPDATE...
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Chances for measurable rainfall are dwindling tonight as dry air is winning. Lowered POPs over the next several hours, best chances now at the coast. Updated aviation discussion below.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... One piece of a pre-frontal trough is moving through and what little activity there was with this feature has almost fully dissipated. The main mid level system to the southwest will move by later tonight and most guidance shows light showers mainly across southern areas in and around 0600 UTC. Yet another weak boundary will move across in the wake of this activity and hopefully provide enough wind and lower dewpoints to preclude low clouds and or fog. Sometimes the relative lull between the first front and main thrust of the cold air advection (expected tomorrow night) is troublesome. Lows tonight should once again drop to the middle 50s and highs Monday with the aforementioned subtle cold air advection in play reaching the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front pushing offshore Monday night will bring cold air advection and breezy winds. Low level mixing and lingering cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the upper 30s. Frost appears unlikely due to winds within the well mixed nocturnal boundary layer. Vort max moving overhead may squeeze out a sprinkle across eastern NC prior to midnight and should keep cloud cover overhead through the early morning hours. Cool air will have a brief residency on Tuesday as mid level flow quickly turns zonal after sunrise. West winds during the afternoon will begin to advect warm air across southern NC and SC. Sunny skies and the cooler air mass will keep afternoon highs in the upper 50s. High pressure to the south will maintain light winds overnight, capping overnight lows around 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the Gulf Coast will produce sunny skies and clear nights through Thursday. Warm on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front Wednesday night. Slightly cooler on Thursday as cooler air works its way into the FA by Friday. High pressure to the northeast on Friday and a Gulf Low to our south will lead to an unsettled weekend. Low pressure will ride northward along a coastal trough sometime on Friday. This will keep rain in the forecast through at least Saturday afternoon. Cluster analysis shows the main source of uncertainty will be timing of this system. Conditions could deteriorate as early as Friday with a faster and stronger coastal low. A weaker and slower storm would primarily impact the region Saturday and early Sunday. Regardless, ensembles seem to be fairly consistent that this storm will impact the area in some form or fashion. No severe weather concerns at the moment, but a slight shift of the surface low inland could produce some elevated instability in a dynamic environment. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Have VCSH in at coastal terminals for the next couple hours as the axis of rain shifts closer to the coast and then offshore. Occasional gusts 15-20kts are showing up at several obs stations ahead of the front which is still further inland so kept increased wind speeds through tonight. Winds will shift to out of the NW closer to daybreak as the front moves offshore with a gradual return to west winds through the day. Another surge will arrive towards the end of the period with stronger NW winds. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period.
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&& .MARINE... Through Monday... A southwest flow a couple of knots either side of 15 will continue through the early morning hours. A weak boundary will move across at this time to shift the winds to offshore. With little to no cold air advection (push) behind this boundary winds will trend more toward ten knots than fifteen. The wave spectrum will be unimpressed with the winds and remain around 3 ft. Monday Night through Friday... High pressure and cold air advection on Monday night will create breezy conditions and deep mixing across the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through midday Tuesday. Gusts up to Gale force are possible early Tuesday, mainly around sunrise south of Little River Inlet. Conditions improve rapidly on Tuesday as mid level flow becomes zonal and surface winds turn westerly. Another surge Tuesday evening could approach SCA criteria briefly. This surge may be brief enough to avoid an advisory. Quiet conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday even behind a dry cold front Wednesday night. A developing coastal trough and approaching coastal low will likely bring another round of unsettled marine conditions beginning late Thursday night into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...LEW MARINE...SHK/21

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