Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171522 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1022 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and damp conditions will exist today as a cold front to the south wavers across the region. High pressure will build down from the northwest tonight giving the front a push southward again, bringing drier and more seasonable weather for Sunday. The front will lift back to the north as a warm front Monday. Bermuda High pressure will bring very warm temperatures for much of next week. A front will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Saturday...Front stalled south of the area this morning will lift back north as a warm front later today. Slight increase in isentropic lift as the front approaches may lead to some isolated areas of rain, although patchy drizzle is more likely. Held onto afternoon pop but did curtail values a bit. Cloud cover will hang around all day with forecast soundings showing a layer of roughly 80% humidity from around 2k ft to about 6k ft. Slight increase in moisture within this layer later today into tonight, humidity will be very close to 100%, will be responsible for any rain or drizzle. The issue will be lift/forcing which is why drizzle/mist appears more likely than rain. Still expect highs in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area. Will be tricky later today as the front starts to return north. Is possible that some of the SC sites end up within the warm sector. This would likely lead to highs 5-10 degrees warmer then currently forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure to our N will shove a cold front to our S before the start of this forecast period. This high will quickly move E and offshore, allowing the front to move back across the area during Mon. Forcing looks weak through the period. Weak isentropic upglide should develop Sun night into Mon. Model depictions of moisture profiles show clouds will be decreasing from N to S during Sun. However, this will be short lived and clouds should begin to build back across the area Sun night. Model soundings show the moisture deepening with near saturation being achieved from near the surface up through about 6 kft. A pronounced near surface inversion will likely hold low clouds over the area through at least Mon morning. These clouds may begin to erode Mon afternoon as the low level inversion erodes with passage of the warm front and a return to a light southerly flow. Some light rain may begin to break out Sun night into Mon morning with perhaps a few showers Mon afternoon and eve. None of the rainfall is expected to be significant and in fact, we are keeping POPs in the slight chance to low chance for measurable rainfall. No winter-like temps through the period. Highs on Sun will be in the lower to mid 60s. Highs on Mon will jump to the lower to mid 70s. The beaches will be coolest each day, near 60 Sun and near 70 on Mon. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Sun night and in the upper 50s Mon night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda High pressure will bring out of season warmth to the area. Highs Tue and Wed will rise to around 80 away from the beaches along with drier conditions and more sunshine, although cirrus within the subtropical jet may still plague the area. On Thu a shortwave rotating around the ridge will try to suppress the expansive ridge and push a weak cold front into the area. Guidance has backed off on the southern progress of this feature, which seems likely based off the strength of the aforementioned ridge. Still, this feature impinging on the local area will bring more clouds with better shower chances and slightly cooler temperatures. However, this front will wash out quickly by the end of the week bringing drier weather once again for Fri, and temps will remain above climo even during this more unsettled period late in the week. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12Z...A cold front moved south through all of the terminals earlier, and is becoming stationary. Currently MVFR cigs at KILM with VFR at the remaining terminals. Winds are northeast to east-northeast with some higher gusts coastal terminals. There is high confidence of MVFR lowering to IFR/LIFR today, but confidence in timing is low. The stationary front to the south will move back north as a warm front this afternoon. As it does a steep frontal inversion will lower. Models indicate MVFR cigs becoming likely all terminals this morning, then lowering to IFR and possibly LIFR with some fog this afternoon as the warm frontal boundary nears. As the front moves through, winds will become south and flight conditions will improve. Late in the TAF valid period the front will move back to the south of the terminals, with MVFR/IFR becoming likely. Extended Outlook...MVFR inland terminals/IFR coastal terminals Sun morning becoming VFR. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. Becoming VFR Tue. VFR/SHRA Wed. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 10 AM Saturday...Northeast surge behind the cold front has pushed seas over 6 ft across AMZ250 and across eastern parts of AMZ252. Have decided to issue a short duration SCA in response. Surge should weaken during the next few hours at which point seas should drop under 5 ft. Front stalled to the south this morning will return north later today with northeast winds becoming east-southeast as afternoon turns into evening. Weak gradient will keep speeds 10 kt or less and seas will continue falling and are likely to be at or below 3 ft tonight. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...A cold front will lie S of the waters on Sun and then move N of the area on Mon. N winds will veer to NE Sun morning and then to E Sun night. The direction will continue to veer, becoming SE Mon and then S Mon night. The strongest winds will occur on Sun, up to 15 to 20 kt. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less overnight Sun and through Mon night. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft Sun, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft overnight Sun and then persisting through Mon night. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Bermuda type high pressure setting up offshore through Wednesday. As this develops, winds will slowly veer from south to southwest, but speeds will be only around 10 kt regardless of direction. With light winds and a prolonged period of S/SW winds, seas will be primarily driven by a SE swell but remain low amplitude. Highest seas are forecast Wednesday when wave heights will reach around 3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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