Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291059 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 658 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING AT A PCPN-FREE FORECAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER...JUST OFF THE ILM CWA COASTLINE...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST JUST OFFSHORE ORIENTED NE-SW AND RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINES BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE ROMAINE. WEAK SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND MOVE NE TO CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT MAY ATLEAST REACH THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT ITS CLOSEST PROXIMITY. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA INDICATE A DRY LEVEL BETWEEN 850MB AND 400MB INITIALLY WITH PROGGED PWS AROUND 1 INCH. MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE THRUOUT THE ATM COLUMN LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY OCCURRING LATER TONIGHT...WITH PROGGED PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SUN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO EXACERBATED SOUTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. TRIGGERS TO AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL OCCUR DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED CU DURING TODAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING OPAQUE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHTS LOWS. DID HOWEVER STAY WITH A DRIER BIAS AT THE SFC...AND IS REFLECTED WITH A LOWER HOURLY SFC DEWPOINT THRUOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE SOME EVEN DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC FROM ALOFT THIS AFTN...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND ACROSS THE NW-N PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WILL TRY TO BRING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO GIVE US ANY WEATHER. LOOK FOR PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE ITS SOMEWHAT PROTECTED FROM THE HIGHER NE WIND WAVES DUE TO THE LOWER FETCH FOR THEM TO GROW. THE MODEST 1020+ HIGH BROADLY CENTERED FROM OVER THE NC-VA BORDER TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY IN PLACE THRU THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THIS SAME TIME...A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ORIENTED NE-SW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINES THIS MORNING...THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT TO A POSITION OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA WATERS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING A TIGHTENED SFC PG ATTM...AND SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE LOW EXITING NE OF THE AREA WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE WATERS WILL OBSERVE A SOLID NE TO ENE 15 TO 20 KT WIND TODAY...THAT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE ALREADY RISEN FROM THE INCREASED NE WINDS FROM YESTERDAY. WILL BE LOOKING AT A SOLID 3 TO 5 FT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS BETWEEN LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET WHERE A LIMITED FETCH WILL EXIST FOR GROWING NE WIND-DRIVEN WAVES. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 10-12 SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER THE 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS SPECTRUM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FEET. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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