Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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404 FXUS62 KILM 251721 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 121 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM Monday...As is usually the case in such quiet weather there are no changes to the forecast at this time. The 12Z WRF has come in supporting the idea of a dry forecast, while the HRRR shows what will likely be non-measurable QPF along the sea breeze. A massive, persistent and very dry ridge aloft will continue to contribute to above normal levels of heat today. At the surface the Bermuda high will continue to dominate, bringing a very moist and hot south to southwesterly flow to the region for today and tonight. Temperatures will again climb above normal, with highs in the mid 90s most locations and in the lower 90s near the coast. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s we can expect heat indices this afternoon to range from 100F to 104F. Bone-dry upper levels and a lack of sufficiently strong forcing will greatly limit development of convection today. The best we can expect is the odd sea-breeze forced pop-up shower or thunderstorm focused along the sea breeze boundry. However, consider coverage will be too sparse to warrant mentionable pops. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday...A hot and humid airmass will continue to dominate the eastern Carolinas as a broad, flat ridge prevails aloft and the Bermuda high persists at the surface. A thermal trough will strengthen each afternoon over the central Carolinas. Both days will feature afternoon heat index values approaching or exceeding 105F, and it is likely that heat advisories will be issued for at least portions of the forecast area on both days. For Tuesday, very dry air aloft and lack of strong forcing will limit convective coverage to very isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening, primarily along the sea breeze front and near the inland thermal trough. Somewhat greater convective coverage is possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night as slightly deeper moisture may be advecting in. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM Monday...Deep ridge of high pressure will slip farther to the east and weaken as the weekend approaches. This will allow h5 heights to slip and temps to lower slightly, as well as, reduce the subsidence and dry air aloft giving way to increased chance of shwrs/tstms heading into the latter half of the weekend and early next week. A broad northern stream mid to upper trough will reach down from the Upper Great Lakes pushing a cold front east into the Carolinas by Sunday. This will help to tighten the gradient flow and increase SW winds, and, also produce deeper moisture and greater support for more widespread convection heading through the latter part of the weekend into early next week. Initially expect only isolated convection along sea breeze front and Piedmont trough Thurs and Fri. Then pcp water values increase back up above 2 inches late Sat into early next week. Temperatures in the mid 90s on Fri will drop down slowly, aided also by increasing clouds and convection. Heat indices will remain high in a very humid air mass, and should reach above advisory criteria Thurs and possibly Fri aftn. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. High pressure overhead is producing SW winds across the terminals this aftn. Wind speeds will remain light, 5-10 kts, except at the coastal terminals for a few hours this aftn/eve as the sea breeze backs winds to the south along with an increase in speed. Diurnal CU is likely through nightfall, and may at times produce short duration VFR cigs, but showers/tstms will be capped. Cannot rule out a shower near the coastal terminals this aftn, but prefer to handle with a tempo if necessary as activity will be very isolated at worst. Any clouds will erode overnight leaving SKC with light SW winds. More of the same VFR conditions expected Tuesday with diurnal CU and SW winds except within the aftn sea breeze. Shower chances will be slightly higher on Tuesday but again have left out any mention of even VCSH attm due to expected isolated nature. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection through Saturday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 6 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: There will be little change over the waters through the near term. The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic will keep winds primarily from the SW at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts, with seas of 2 or 3 ft today and tonight. Winds will be mainly southerly this afternoon near shore and gusty as the afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts through the period, with seas of 2 or 3 ft. Expect gusts up around 20 kts each day. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday...Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trough inland will maintain the south to southwest flow through the period. Gradient flow will increase out of the SW heading into the weekend and persistent S-SW flow 10 to 15 kts will increase slightly into the weekend as gradient tightens. The winds will back and increase slightly each aftn due to sea breeze and piedmont trough inland. Seas will basically remain in the 2 to 4 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...JDW MARINE...REK/RGZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.