Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 310545 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 145 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area even as the actual system does by Wednesday. The weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into the weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 1030 PM Monday...Convection has blossomed off the NC coast, with origins traced back to the Gulf Stream. Thus far the bulk of the activity has had trouble moving onshore. This could be due to the lack of instability over land combined with the cool near shore sea surface temps. Still think some of this convection will bleed onshore from time to time but inland penetration is likely to be limited. Development of a more stable regime inland has brought about an end to the bulk of the afternoon showers with only pockets of weak showers lingering across portions of NC. These areas are likely to dry up over the next hour or two and little precip is expected inland after midnight. Lows still expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will only slowly move northeastward, reaching Cape Fear Tuesday afternoon and moving east of the New Hanover County beaches Tuesday night. Good convective instability on the order of 1000-1500 j/kg Tuesday and convergence provided by the low should help develop more showers and t-storms, especially across SE North Carolina. Forecast PoPs range from 50 percent along I-95 to 70 percent near Wilmington. Cell movement will be very slow near the low and the potential for isolated flooding cannot be ruled out. By Wednesday the low should be up near the NC Crystal Coast, shifting the greatest concentration of showers and storms north of our forecast area. A very humid airmass will linger behind the low, and as temperatures rise into the mid 80s inland a seabreeze should develop which will act as a focus for new convection. Forecast PoPs Wednesday range from 20-30 percent inland to 40-60 percent along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Remnant low pressure from Bonnie finally lifting north and tracking up toward Hatteras on Thursday. This will leave a W-NW flow of deeper drier air making its way into the area on the back end. Pcp water values will essentially drop down to around 1.5 inches by Thurs aftn. Still a warm and humid summer time air mass in place with plenty of low level moisture remaining. A good deal of upper level subsidence should keep shwr activity limited but can not rule out some localized spotty convection. By late Thurs into Friday a moist southerly return flow will set up at the surface while winds above the surface maintain more of a westerly flow. Will see an increase in overall moisture through the column while a northern stream shortwave begins to push a cold front south toward the Carolinas. For the most part, expect continued warm and humid weather with localized shwr activity becoming more widespread later in the day, especially inland. May see some stronger convection well inland, making its way into local forecast area late day as front gets pushed a little closer. By Saturday, expect increased thunderstorm activity and a much more active day overall as front reaches the area with better upper level support. The GFS brings front down early Saturday and then it may linger through the weekend before main h5 trough digs southward finally pushing the front off shore by Monday. The ECMWF is slower with the departure of the front and therefore keeps more active weather for Monday as well. For now will probably show a clearing trend through the day on Monday...with weak high pressure returning. Temps will run well into the 80s most days with a warm and humid summer time air mass in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 06Z...Remnants of Bonnie will continue to affect the area bringing low cigs, some fog, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. As a result, varying flight restrictions of MVFR/IFR are expected. Latest radar imagery continues to depict isolated showers offshore. Some of thee showers may begin to spiral onto the coast, impacting the coastal terminals with a brief downpour. Otherwise, low cigs and brief patches of fog are expected through the overnight hours with the highest risk for ifr at klbt and kflo. The wind direction will be light and variable. After daybreak, expect intermittent improvements to flight restrictions as the area will see breaks in the clouds. However, daytime heating will allow for a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Northeast winds around 5 kt in the morning will become east-southeast in the afternoon, increasing up to around 10 kt. Extended Outlook...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through Thursday as a tropical airmass remains in place. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Otherwise expect VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Monday...Weak surface gradient will keep winds 10 kt or less across the waters overnight. The remnants of Bonnie will drift slowly northeast tonight, causing southeast winds across the waters to become more southerly. Seas have dropped under 4 ft at 41013 and are right at 3 ft at 41108. The slow downward trend in seas should continue through the remainder of the overnight. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bonnie`s remnant low will move slowly northeastward Tuesday, passing just offshore of Cape Fear during the afternoon and moving east of Wrightsville Beach Tuesday night. By Wednesday the low should be up in the Crystal Coast area and losing its influence on the Cape Fear/Grand Strand area. Models all suggest there will be no significant winds surrounding the low, 15 knots or less, although wind directions will continue to be determined by the low`s position through at least Tuesday night. A very humid airmass lingering behind Bonnie should continue to produce scattered showers and t-storms. These should be fairly numerous Tuesday, especially near and north of Cape Fear, then will focus more along the seabreeze boundary on Wednesday. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...As the remnant low from Bonnie finally lifts farther north toward Hatteras on Thursday...a light off shore flow will develop and then become more southerly through Friday as cold front approaches from the N-NW. The off shore flow will allow seas to drop a little further remaining below 3 ft Thurs into Fri with a slow rising trend heading into the weekend in minor southerly push ahead of approaching cold front. Winds will basically remain S-SW less than 15 kt late Thurs into the weekend with seas rising slightly Fri night into Sat but remaining in the 2 to 4 ft range.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJD/SGL

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