Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280745 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A COOL DOWN. A RAINY START TO THE MONTH OF MAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...THE NOCTURNAL JET IS GEARING UP PER LATEST KLTX VWP DATA. THIS WILL LIKELY SEAL THE DEAL FOR A FOG-FREE NIGHT AND VERY MILD MINIMUMS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED BUT HAS STRUGGLED...UNDERSTANDABLE WHEN VIEWING VAPOR DATA REVEALING THE DRY AIR ALOFT. UPPER AIR DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 500 MB OVERHEAD...AND EARLIER EVEN WITH A GOOD LOW-LEVEL BOOST FROM THE INLAND MARCHING SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT SUSTAINED ITSELF WELL. AS THERMALS WANE SO WILL CONVECTION AS MOISTURE ALOFT REMAINS IN LIMITED SUPPLY OVERNIGHT. A SOLID SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC WINDS TO REGAIN COMPLETE CONTROL OF WIND DIRECTION IN THE MID-LATE EVENING FROM S-SSE TO SSW-SW. SSTS PARTIALLY INFLUENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD MINIMUMS ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA AT ELEVATED READINGS NEAR 70. INLAND LOWS 64-68. PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW- LEVEL WIND JET WILL TRANSPIRE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF KLTX VWP REGISTERS 40 KT AT 1 KFT BY 1Z/9P. THIS WILL VERY LIKELY PUT THE KABASH ON MIST OR FOG FORMATION AS MIXING AND WARMTH REMAIN IN GOOD SUPPLY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY. WHAT SHOULD CHANGE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AROUND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT FASTER IN TODAY`S 12Z MODELS THAN IT WAS A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND I AM CONCERNED THAT WE MAY BE OVER FORECASTING POPS SOMEWHAT WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. OUR LATEST FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT 40-50 PERCENT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...MAINLY TIED TO THE 30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MID-LEVELS. BULK SHEAR COMPUTED ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE THRESHOLD VALUE AT WHICH I START TO TAKE NOTICE. SPC IS MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF THE SE UNITED STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PERHAPS WORKING ON LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE 850-600 MB LAYER. POPS 30-40 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP WELL INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE DOWN THIS WAY DURING THE EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POPS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NO COLD ADVECTION YET LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND! BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A BETTER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATE...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHES RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO SEA. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PCP WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUN AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST. OVERALL EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER AIR FOR LATE MON INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ECMWF MUCH WETTER FOR MIDWEEK WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH AND CONVECTION FLARING UP OVER THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS MUCH BROADER MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH BEST CHC OF PCP TO THE SOUTH WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TUES INTO WED. TEMPS IN THE 80S SUN INTO MON WILL COOL MON NIGHT INTO TUES BEHIND COLD FRONT. OVERALL SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MOST PLACES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT MONDAY AND RELATIVELY COOLER AGAIN TUES INTO WED.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS DECK POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS NEAR DAYBREAK. ENOUGH TO MENTION HERE BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE IN THE TAFS. MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE DAYS CONVECTION. BROKEN LINE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT...WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY AFFECT COASTAL MYR AND CRE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH TO DETOUR FOG FORMATION AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL EMBEDDED S/W TROFS OR VORTS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HRS...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH AVBL MOISTURE AND THE DAYS INSOLATION RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY...2500-3500 PROGGED CAPE...WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION RUNNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL TIME THE STRONGER CONVECTION FROM MIDDAY INLAND TERMINALS TO MID TO LATE THIS AFTN COASTAL TERMINALS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. SFC PG WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED...PRODUCING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTN. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 5 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SHOWERS EARLY FRI MORNING WILL END FOLLOWED BY A CFP. VFR DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...A BUMPY 3 FEET AS WANING 10 SECOND E WAVE ENERGY IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY SSW WAVES EVERY 4-5 SECONDS MAKING FOR MODERATE BUMPINESS ON TOP OF A ROLLING LOW AMPLITUDE SWELL. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THE MIDDLE EVENING UPDATES. SEAS HOLDING AROUND 3 FEET INTO DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH A HEALTHY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED NEAR THE BEACHES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE. THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO STAGES: A WIND SHIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY...FOLLOWED VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BY A FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN HEADING INTO TUES. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. WNA SHOWS SEAS REACHING 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN BUT THEN DECREASING HEADING INTO TUES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/DL

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