Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291915 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 315 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM INLAND LATER TODAY AND LINGER ON THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY NNWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND NE SURFACE FLOW HAS THUS FAR KEPT THE COLUMN QUITE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF ITS DEPTH. EVEN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WELL INLAND THAT WERE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR/CU HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS THEY MIXED OUT INTO THE DRY AIR. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO NORTHEASTERLY LINED UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY PRIOR TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS TX/NM RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MID/UPPER TROF IS IN A LITTLE BETTER SHAPE FRIDAY AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN THE VICINITY THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL EXIST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO QUITE HIGH THURSDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK INLAND TROF AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND BE AVAIALBLE DURING FRIDAY. MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS/LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO. ALSO REGARDING MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH...THE TIDE LEVELS MAY GET CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND SPRINGMAID PIER WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET AT THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT TIDE GAUGE AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THIS WKND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND WASHES OUT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS BEING PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SE COAST...FILTERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLING...A CLEAR DISCONNECT. WHILE THIS FRONT IS TECHNICALLY OF POLAR ORIGIN (VERY NEAT TO SEE THE TERM POLAR FRONT USED BY WPC IN THE SOUTHEAST IN JULY)...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TRUE COOL ADVECTION WITH IT. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO WELL OFFSHORE. WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND KEEP THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT WILL WALK POP DOWN DUE TO DRYING ALOFT. STILL SCT SHOWERS/AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS WKND WITH TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LONGWAVE TROUGH ERODES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS TO THE NE. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITH 850MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING EACH DAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH CLIMO OR BELOW POP CHANCES.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A COASTAL LOW AND TROUGH WILL KEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE TODAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CU AND TRANSITORY UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY PLEASANT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. BEST CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING 3 FT...THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT CAUSED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT MAY CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BACKING TO NE SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHEN OR DRIFT NORTHWARD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST THU ALONG WITH A WEAK INLAND TROUGH WILL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS DURING FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST AND STALLS. AS A RESULT...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT ENTIRELY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS FRONTAL PLACEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO STALL AND FALL APART JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SW FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...GRADUALLY BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST...BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ON THE GREATER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED GROUND SWELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MBB

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