Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290523 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1223 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MILD AND WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1223 AM MONDAY...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE NW AND 10 PERCENT S AND E. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL HUNG UP WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE RADAR IS QUIET OVER BOTH STATES PRESENTLY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE COAST DURING MONDAY. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...THOUGH SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES AND A COLD FRONT PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL. HAVE BUMPED UP QPF SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO POSSIBLY ONE HALF INCH IN ISOLATED AREAS. EXPECT RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A VERY GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY INFILTRATES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT THIS AS VALUES DO NOT DROP BELOW ONE INCH UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR ONE HALF INCH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...ANTICIPATE A HEALTHY CLOUD DECK TO LINGER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS YOU MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH ALMOST A 10 DEGREE DROP TO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...FOR THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE PERIOD THE REGION BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A COOL NE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY STARTS TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE AND KEEP REGION BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY D+6 WEATHER GETS A BIT MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH PUSHES A WARM FRONT IN OFF THE WATERS PUSHING TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EXTENDING INLAND. OUR TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN OUR INLAND NEIGHBORING WFOS WITH THIS FEATURE. POPS ARE TWEAKED UP A BIT FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS BRING ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE MAIN LOW UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS MODERATE WELL INTO THIS WEEKEND RISING ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THIS TAF PERIOD WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR CIGS INLAND SHOULD LOWER TO IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH -RA/DZ ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALONG THE COAST...SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT TEMPO PERIODS OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. ADDITIONALLY...200-400 FT STRATUS OVER THE WATERS MAY IMPACT THESE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. MODERATE PRECIP WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BECOMING LIFR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT MAY LINGER/STALL OVER THE AREA AS IT PASSES TODAY...SO PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT GENERALLY...W-SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CIGS TUE MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR WED/THU. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR OVERNIGHT FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1223 AM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS THOUGH AREA WEB CAMS ARE QUIET IN THAT RESPECT AT PRESENT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...SCEC POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IN LIEU OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS LATER ON MONDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 1 TO 3 FT EARLY...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT...WITH 5 FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST TOT HE NORTHEAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY LATER THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FEET WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC/RAN SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...MAC AVIATION...BJR/8

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