Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 051143 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 643 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FROZEN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE SLOW WARMUP WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF INTERESTING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT BEGINS WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING SEA FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ASOS/AWOS OBS AT KCRE AND KSUT HAVE SHOWN LOW VSBYS ALL MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT NOON. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...THIS SAME AIRMASS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND SPREADING DOWN TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EAST OF I-95. SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-40 MPH LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG THE SOUTH- OR SOUTHEAST-FACING BEACHES...COOL ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ~10 DEGREES COOLER. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT STILL SHARPENING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT...AND IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN BENNETTSVILLE-LUMBERTON-ELIZABETHTOWN AROUND 3 PM...FLORENCE-MARION-SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON BETWEEN 4-5 PM...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS MYRTLE BEACH-GEORGETOWN-KINGSTREE BETWEEN 5-6 PM. THE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE PHENOMENAL: UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES IN THE FIRST HOUR AFTER FROPA WITH A 35-40 DEGREE DROP OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD GOING INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP AND LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WHICH SHOULD HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SLOPE OVER THE INCREASINGLY COLD AIR NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ON THIS ISENTROPIC SURFACE CLEARS OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHALLOWER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST ISENTROPIC MOTION IS DOWNWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE MOIST LAYER... WHICH USUALLY SPELLS THE END OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER AN IMPRESSIVE 300 MB JET STREAK OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO SQUEEZE EVERY LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE REMAINING CLOUD DECK. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST THAN THE 00Z GFS...AND 00Z SREF MEMBERS SHOW 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO NEAR FREEZING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 09Z-12Z FRI REVEAL A HEALTHY SLUG OF COLD AIR BELOW 3000 FEET AGL WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FREEZE FALLING HYDROMETERS INTO SLEET PELLETS. ANYTHING FALLING DURING THAT TIME SHOULD TAKE THE FORM OF SLEET...OR PERHAPS RAIN WHERE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO REMELT PRECIPITATION. FORECAST QPF AFTER 06Z IS QUITE LOW (.02" OR LESS) AND WITH VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...BACK TO WINTER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW FREEZING FRI MORNING IN STRONG CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH...A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP A WARMER FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING OUT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BETWEEN 2-7K FT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING PCP INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A PROMINENT WARM NOSE WILL EXIST BETWEEN 4-10K FT WHICH LEAVES A FEW THOUSAND FT OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS BEFORE PCP REACHES THE GROUND. THEREFORE LOOKS MORE LIKE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET...BUT THE LOWEST 2K FT REMAINS DRY AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BY MID MORNING. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. ALSO...TEMPS ALONG THE SC COAST MAY NOT BE BELOW 0 C DURING FRI MORNING AND OTHER PLACES WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR POSSIBLY FZG RAIN SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATION ON MOST SURFACES BECAUSE THE TEMPS WERE VERY WARM MOVING INTO THIS EVENT. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A BIT ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES, ETC... THIS MOIST LAYER BECOMES SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD END UP WITH JUST A LAYER OF STRATUS BEFORE BREAKING UP TO STRATO CU AND CLEARING OUT BY LATE FRI. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MID 30S ALONG THE COAST BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY AFTN GIVING A PUSH FOR WARMER TEMPS ONCE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF SHORE BY FRI EVENING DEEP DRY AND COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS FOR FRI NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1 TO 2 C REMAINING THIS LOW FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT MORNING. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY ON SATURDAY AND WITH MARCH SUNSHINE EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND NICELY FROM THE 20S VERY EARLY SAT MORNING UP TO THE 50S BY AFTN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES IN A WARMER RETURN FLOW. AS ONE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF SHORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN A VERY BROAD TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A W-SW FLOW ALOFT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED. WILL KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR/LIFR DUE TO SEA FOG AT KCRE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF FOG...AND RAINFALL. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS ALREADY UP TO 20 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS...SEA FOG CONTINUES TO CREATE IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING AT KCRE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE KEPT IN POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE NORTH...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG...TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARDS MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL NOTE THAT BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE COASTAL AREAS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE PELLETS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED IN GOING FORECAST ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE THIS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATER WE HAVE A LONG-LIVED DENSE SEA FOG EVENT ONGOING. AIRPORT WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTH MYRTLE BEACH & SOUTHPORT CONFIRM THE FOG IS STILL VERY DENSE. VERY LITTLE SHOULD CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC WIND SETUP THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...UNTIL A POWERFUL COLD FRONT NOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN INSTANTANEOUS SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND WE HAVE TURNED THE GALE WATCH INTO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FEET ARE NEARLY STEADY-STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 6-9 FEET OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND EAST OF WINYAH BAY WHERE NORTH WINDS WILL HAVE THE LONGEST EFFECTIVE FETCH TO WORK WITH. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS FRIDAY MORNING IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AND COLD SURGE. A GALE WARNING WILL LAST INTO FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. SEAS UP TO 5-9 FT EARLY FRIDAY...WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING 2-4 FT BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LESS THAN 3 FT SEAS BY SAT EVE INTO SUN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY SUN NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY. EXPECT VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE N TO NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MON NIGHT INTO TUES. SEAS WILL BE BACK UP TO 2 TO 4 FT BY MON NIGHT INTO TUES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ054. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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