Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 291127
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
High pressure will continue to bring oppressive heat and humidity
to the region through Saturday. The high will begin to break down
over the weekend leading to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle
of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Friday...Only a small decrease in temperatures today
as the high pressure ridge remains to the south and a Piedmont
trough continues to the west. The 850 mb temperatures dropped to
18 to 19 degrees Celsius today. At the surface high temperatures
are expected to range between 94 to 97 degrees with lower 90s at
the beaches. Combined with the humidity, the heat indices will
range between 103 and 104F.
There is a very small increase in chance of an afternoon and evening
thunderstorm. The focus areas will be along the resultant sea-breeze
front mainly over southeast North Carolina and inland areas mainly
north of a Florence to Whiteville line. Chance will be only 20%.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The bad news is on Saturday and Sunday the 850
temperatures creep up to 20 degrees Celsius so expect to see heat
advisories reposted for the forecast area for Saturday and Sunday.
The good news is that the Piedmont trough is forecast to shift
closer to the coast and chance for convection increases with some
needed rain and may temper some of the heat. By Sunday night the
models stall a frontal boundary over north central North Carolina
late sunday night.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The extended period will feature a decent mid level
trough that moves across the east coast by Wednesday. The associated
cold front will make it to the area and basically dissipate. Overall
the best combination of higher PW and synoptic forcing occurs Monday
and Tuesday. Have continued to carry high chance to likely pops for
these days. Much drier air at the mid levels sinks into the area
Wednesday but low levels are mostly unchanged, therefore continued
with much lower pops but there could still be some coverage. WPC
days 4-5 QPF shows decent amounts for Monday and Tuesday.
Temperature forecast cools slowly through the period from well above
seasonal normals Monday to near average by Thursday.
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 12Z...The aviation community can expect VFR conditions
through the period. There is a small chance for sea breeze convection
today, particularly over our NC counties. Have included VCTS at ILM
aft 18Z to account for this. All other terminals are forecast to be
convection free for now. Winds should be s to sw at 10 to 15 kt by
day and 5 to 10 kt aft sunset.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection Sunday
and onward through the forecast will create fleeting and localized
MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Friday...Southwest winds will continue as the
Bermuda high ridge remains to the south of the coastal waters. The
nocturnal low-level jet will weaken during the day and the winds
of 15 to 20 knots over the waters before sunrise today. This will
result in the surface winds falling to 10 to 15 knots during the
day. Seas will continue to run 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas especially
10 miles off the coast.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...The synoptic pressure pattern has changed
little through this period. The only slight change is the Piedmont
trough shifts a little closer to the coast and winds will be around
10 to 15 knots as pressure gradient weakens a tad. Late on Sunday
a cold front will move into the central sections of North Carolina
and a low-level jet develops overnight and winds will increase to 15
to 20 knots. Seas will fluctuate between 2 to 4 feet through the
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue
across the waters Monday and Tuesday. A front will be crawling
toward the area late Tuesday but indications are the brief wind
shift will be just after this valid time period. Significant seas
will be 1-3 feet.