Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270156 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 956 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into Tuesday, and again late next week. A cooling trend is expected into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM Sunday...Band of light showers has been dissipating as it tracks eastward across the ILM NC CWA this evening. Not much left of it but will include a whopping 15% for the next hour 2. Otherwise, have kept the remainder of the night pcpn-free. Will have to deal with some leftover moisture in the low to mid levels in the form of stratocu and altocu across the inland areas. This moisture will scour a good deal by the time it reaches the ILM CWA coast. As a result, looking at partly cloudy skies inland and could become mostly clear along the immediate coast. Have slightly expanded the patchy fog for the pre-dawn hours but held off with any dense. Sfc ridging across the area from the high`s center offshore from NC and continued ridging aloft from the eastern Gulf of Mexico has continued the overall subsidence across the FA thru tonight. Look for the upper ridge axis to slide off the SE US Coast on Mon allowing more clouds to infiltrate from the west as well as increasing chances for pcpn Mon night. Previous..................................................... As of 230 PM Sunday...Once again, a warm southerly flow has allowed temperatures to rise in the mid and even upper 70s most places with 60s at the beaches. A diurnal cu field has formed, not as extensive as yesterday, as ample low level moisture advection continues off of the ocean. A few very light returns have appeared on radar but no ground truth of any precip actually touching the ground yet. Considering the very dry air aloft and lack of triggers, will be keeping pops today below mentionable levels. For tonight a light southerly flow will continue with high pressure dominating the western Atlantic. Lows will be in the mid 50s for most locations. Model soundings suggest another partly cloudy yet dry day as the moist southerly low level flow continues around the western Atlantic ridge. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s most places. A few places will hit 80. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Another in a series of dampening shortwaves will move across the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic region through the period with a a cold front trailing at the surface. We continue to advertise low chance pops for the daytime hours Tuesday with slight chance either side of this to address any timing issues. The front will cross the area in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thermal profiles look slightly warmer than recent days with the southwest flow ahead of the system. Depending on the amount of sunshine Tuesday, there could be widespread 80s. Overnight lows remain entrenched in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 4 AM Sunday...Brief high pressure intrusion via a back- door cold front will bring a slightly cooler day on Thursday with a lag of cooler air on Wednesday in wake of a frontal crossing of the coast. Thursday morning lows may end up being the coolest portion of the week, before warm air advection cranks up again by Thursday night ahead of a potent southern stream impulse. This system will offer the best rain chance of late, and potentially a good soaking. Right now the amplified nature of the shot-wave suggest a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out late Thursday night into Friday. A few showers may linger into Saturday beneath the cold pool of the amplified trough, with drying and cooling through the day with a cool morning lows in the 40s Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR conditions will dominate this period, with the exception for the pre-dawn Mon hrs thru 13Z Mon when MVFR conditions possible due to BR. Have included a VCNTY SHRA for the inland terminals to account for the drying out of the band of pcpn as it tracks across the inland terminals this evening. Did not include pcpn for the coastal terminals. Have included BR for all terminals but kept it at MVFR thresholds during the 09-13Z Mon time frame. Sfc high centered offshore from the Carolinas, will ridge back to the wsw across Cape Fear to CAE line tonight. This ridge axis will drop southward during Mon to a position from the high`s center off NC Coast to Jacksonville Fl. Winds as a result of the sfc pressure pattern change will start out from the SE-S tonight and veer to the S-SW during Mon. The sfc pg will remain somewhat loose resulting in wind speeds dropping back to 0 to 4 kt this evening and overnight and 5 to 10 kt by late Mon morning thru the aftn with coastal terminals seeing gusts aoa 15 kt due to an active resultant wind bndry, aka sea breeze. Extended outlook...MVFR and IFR conditions possible in a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms late Mon night through Tue and again Thurs night. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 930 PM Sunday...The sfc ridge axis from the High`s center offshore from NC extends west across Cape Fear to Columbia SC. This ridge axis will drop south and east late tonight thru Mon. This will result in wind directions veering from SE-S tonight to S to SSW on Mon and likely SW thruout Mon night. The sfc pg will remain somewhat loose tonight thru Mon, resulting with wind speeds around 10 kt. Could see 10-15 kt near shore during the sea breeze activity on Mon. Significant seas 2 to 4 ft tonight thru Mon. The 9 second period SE ground swell will dominate the seas spectrum during this period. Previous................................................ As of 230 PM Sunday...A light south to south-easterly flow of around 10 kts will continue through the near term as high pressure continues its hold over the western Atlantic. Winds near shore this afternoon and Monday afternoon will be a little bit higher, in the 10 to 15 kt range, and gustier as the afternoon sea-breeze circulation sets up. Seas will remain right around the 3 ft range through the period. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Very light winds from the south, southeast initially will become better defined through the day Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Not the most overpowering flow however as speeds increase to 15-20 knots briefly before backing off Tuesday evening as the front loses some of its identity. Significant seas will increase from initial 2-4 foot values to 3-5 feet Tuesday afternoon and evening with the increase in winds. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... as of 4 AM Sunday...Light winds Wednesday in wake of a cold front can be expected, followed by a wind-shift to the N_NE Wednesday night as a back door cold front pushes across the 0-20 NM waters. Briefly this intrusion will transition to light wind as the high moves overhead Thursday afternoon. A strong and progressive southern system will bring increasing SE-S winds late Thursday and an Advisory may very well be needed for 25 KT gusts late Thursday night ahead of its cold front. Strong storms and numerous showers appear likely on the water Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DCH

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