Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161056 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 556 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Carolinas today with it`s center migrating across the local area and offshore late today thru Sunday. Temperatures today will run a category below normal and for tonight thru Sunday close to the climatological norms. A cold front will drop and stall across the area Mon thru Mon night. Hit or miss showers will occur from early Mon thru Mon night with amounts generally less than one tenth of an inch. Low pressure from the Gulf coast states will push across the area Wed thru Thu with a chance for substantial rainfall. High pressure will follow for the late week period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Saturday...A split flow aloft will develop into more of a southwest flow dominated pattern by early Sunday. At the surface high pressure currently centered over the Tennessee Valley will move to basically overhead by Sunday morning. For the most part its a temperature forecast as any cloud cover will come late in the period with the southwest flow. Highs today will be mostly in the middle 50s and lows Sunday morning in the lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Saturday...Low amplitude ridging aloft, with the ridge axis extending north across the FA from the Bahamas, will persist thru this period. A mid-level s/w trof ejected from the Desert SW early Sunday, will track to the NE remaining well north of the FA as it passes by. At the same time de-amplifying as it gets absorbed in the mean flow by late Sun. The southern branch of the jet stream will dominate the local area, keeping any cold air or outbreaks well north of the FA this period. Sunday will be a mostly sunny early with increasing mid and upper level clouds by afternoon. Low level cloudiness will become more persistent late Sunday night thru Tue as a cold front drops south and stalls as it becomes parallel with the upper flow oriented from the ENE to WSW across the FA. Will indicate low chance for isolated to widely scattered light showers to break out early Monday morning and continuing thru Mon Night. As for temps, stayed close to a consensus of avbl Mos Guidance as a start followed by the addition of a few degrees especially for maxes Sun and Mon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...On Monday the 12 UTC runs of the ECMWF and GFS are showing a trough/cutoff low south of the 4 corners area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east. By Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it has this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal flow. The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the Oklahoma and Arkansas border and the model weakens and dissipates this features as if has moves off the east coast. Therefore confidence in the extended forecast is not high. The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker. With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 11Z...High confidence for VFR conditions through most of the forecast period. High pressure centered to our west will give us light northerly flow with moderate subsidence. Other than jet cirrus, little to no clouds are expected. Light fog is a possibility at the end of the forecast period and will be reevaluated on the next model run. Extended Outlook...VFR. VFR tempo MVFR/SHRA Monday through Tuesday night.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday...North winds, currently hovering around 15 knots will subside through the period as high pressure builds in from the west. Expect a few more hours of 10-15 knots with winds falling below ten knots later this afternoon and continuing overnight. Wind direction becomes erratic tonight but overall expect a west to southwest flow. Significant seas will follow a similar trend, decreasing from the current 2-4 feet to 1-3 feet by Sunday morning. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Saturday...Rather docile wind and sea conditions Sunday that will likely persist thru Monday with only a few knots of wind added and up to 1 foot for significant seas. Center of high pressure overhead early Sunday with a variable wind direction under 10 kt, will push offshore late Sunday resulting in a brief southerly return flow. An approaching cold front will produce SW to W flow at 15 kt or less Mon thru Mon night due to a slight tightening of the sfc pg. The front will stall oriented ENE to WSW across the local waters in the vicinity of Cape Fear late Mon thru Mon night. Winds W to WNW north of the stalled front and SW-WSW south of the front. Significant seas will run 1 to 2 ft Sun thru Sun night and 2 to occasionally 3 ft Mon thru Mon night. An easterly 1 foot, 9 to 10 second period ground swell will dominate the local waters Sun thru Sun night. Wind induced waves at 3 to 5 second periods, Mon thru Mon night may become the more dominant player in the sig. seas. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM Friday..An unsettled period for the marine forecast with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday. Will have to watch if small craft conditions develop after the cold frontal passage but otherwise expect seas of 2 to 4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...43

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