Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 272223 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 624 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH FORMS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A MOIST...GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS NE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP NEAR 2 INCHES BY THESE EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS MORNING TRANSITIONED TO SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOW TRYING TO GET GOING FURTHER INLAND WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWED US TO EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BY A GOOD BIT. NAM MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON CONTINUED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...MAINLY DUE TO A SHORT WAVE THAT IT WANTS TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY. THIS WILL HAPPEN WELL PAST PEAK HEATING THOUGH...SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TONIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND ONLY FOR OUR INLAND COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CLOSELY MATCH FORECAST MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO SEE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHNESS AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 07Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG A FRONT STALLED WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE CLOSER TO 3 FT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AS GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST UP IN THIS REGION. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY... WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL 10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 MARINE...MJC/REK

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