Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 270833 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 333 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DESCENDING UPON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE NOON AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROTATES OFF THE COAST. SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-STARVED AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN WILL REMAIN DRY AND WESTERLY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH THAT THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPING STEEP LOW-LAYER LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVERALL. EXPECTING BROKEN SKIES THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN A SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H/5 TROUGH ROTATES OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. STRONG ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 30 OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...COOL BUT DRY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SOLAR INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO WARM THE AREA THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C DURING FRIDAY. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER LATE FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE NO AFFECT ON DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPR IMPULSE WILL SWING THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF THEN AS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE 500MB...WHICH MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT LIMITING EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT. CALM WINDS AND A DRY COLUMN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MOS NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO COLD AND EXPECT PRIMARILY UPPER 20S...LOW 30S AT THE BEACHES...AS OPPOSED TO THE MID 20S BEING DEPICTED IN A LOT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS MID-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL STILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW HELPING THE CAUSE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MINS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND...LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID-WEEK. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...BUT SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANGES COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...MOS P NUMBERS HAVE RISEN INTO THE CHC RANGE...AND FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST INCREASING SATURATION BELOW 600MB. PWATS STAY BELOW 0.8 INCHES...AND THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END UP AS JUST INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INHERITED KEEPS POP JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SILENCE FOR NOW...BUT AN INCREASE TO SCHC MAY BE REQUIRED WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND COOL NE WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA BEGINS TO RECOVER AGAIN HOWEVER...AS THE WEDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN BY THICKNESSES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LINGERING BR/FG...AS DEPICTED BY LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ANY PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 11-14Z AT KCRE/KMYR/KFLO AS 35 KT WINDS AT 2KFT ARE DEPICTED WELL IN THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS BY DAYBREAK. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE VFR WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS 10-20 KT DURING THE DAY...BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER SUNSET. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RAISING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A FAST- MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WHILE DIMINISHING A BIT...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK SEAS BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO 20 TO 25 KTS...AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT COMMON BY NOON. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FALL FROM AROUND 20 KTS EARLY...TO 10 KTS BY NIGHTFALL. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...CREATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE SW WINDS OF 10 KTS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW HOURS OF 3-5 FT SEAS WILL EXIST FIRST THING FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEAKENING WINDS HELP SEAS FALL TO 1-3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...CHANGING ONLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...ABRUPTLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A SW WIND WAVE AND WEAK SE SWELL COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...CREATING A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP LATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.