Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201706 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1206 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure circulating offshore, will draw warm air into the region much of the upcoming week, before a cold front brings a chance of rain late into next weekend. Daytime highs will average 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1206 PM Tuesday...All fog advisories for now, both land and sea, are cancelled or expired. GOES-E visible windows show a transition to diurnal cumulus, and a robust sea-breeze circulation, helping to shape clouds over the coastal interior. Partly cloudy and very mild conditions will not be stopped today, opening up the door for signs of Spring in these days ahead. As of 1012 AM Tuesday...Just whittling off a few more counties from the `Dense Fog Advisory`, this leaves Darlington and Marlboro, until noon, maybe we can drop this a bit earlier than noon, sure is socked-in nice there now though. As of 923 AM Tuesday...The synoptic pattern sounds like a Beach Boys song, surface high pressure Bermuda, upper ridge Bahama. Exceptionally warm conditions to prevail as a result. Question for today, will fog remain dense near the coast due to sea fog intrusion, slivers can be seen, inland fog currently eroding. Dry aloft, with odds of measurable rain < 15 %. Record highs for today ILM 78 in 2014, FLO 81 in 1997, CRE 76 in 1953. The balmy flow may result in fog again late tonight, sea and land.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather across the eastern Carolinas and bring well above normal temperatures and unseasonably high humidity. A cold front will be dropping S Thu and Thu night. This front should begin to backdoor into North Carolina Thu night, but still looks like it will stall to our N before retreating later Fri and Fri night as the ridge of high pressure expands. Temps at 850 mb will peak around 15C this period and this should,with the help of some sunshine, push high temps to around 80 both days. The proximity to cool Atlantic waters will result in a sharp temp gradient as you near the coast. Beach temps are not expected to exceed 70 either day. Also, patchy sea fog should persist at the beaches and just offshore through the period. Lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Record highs may be challenged Wed and Thu... 02/21 City High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High Wilmington 76/78 in 2014 Florence 82/81 in 1997 N Myrtle Beach 72/76 in 1953 02/22 City High Temperature Forecast/Daily Record High Wilmington 76/78 in 2003 Florence 82/80 in 1990 N Myrtle Beach 72/75 in 2007 The risk for rainfall looks meager this period given only very shallow moisture and persistent ridging. Did include a very small POP for areas N of a ILM to near BBP line late Thu night ahead of the southward progressing backdoor cold front and this may end up being too generous. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Continues to look like a period of extended warmth with potential for record breaking temperatures this week. Bermuda High and 5h western Atlantic ridge team up to bring an extended period of warm southerly flow and mid-level subsidence. GFS continues to slowly back away from bringing a backdoor cold front into the area Fri. Meanwhile the Canadian, ECMWF, and WPC all have the front stalling out around the NC/VA border. Given the GFS is trending in this direction and mid- level ridging tends to win out went ahead and removed any hint of a front moving into the area Fri. Next shot at rainfall looks to be Sun night as cold front moves in from the northwest. Front lacks a strong cold push and the ECMWF stalls it in the region while the GFS passes it cleanly. Looking at the predicted upper pattern would think the front stalled in the area is probably more likely and for now will carry the Sun night chance pop through Mon. The dynamics associated with the front pass northwest of the area and forcing Sun night would be limited, curtailing rainfall amounts. Might have a better shot on Mon if the front ends up stalled and shortwave activity can get involved, but have low confidence for the start of next week at this point. Partial thickness and 850 temps through the end of the week suggest highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas not along the immediate coast. Southeast to south flow will lead to a strong sea breeze that will become a modified resultant as the winds veer to south-southwest late in the period. Onshore flow and water temps in the mid to upper 50s will keep highs at the beaches in the mid to upper 60s at best. Front moving into the area Sun night/Mon will drop temps a little. Even so most areas are likely to end up close to 10 degrees above climo. Lows will be even warmer with potential for lows 25 degrees or more above climo. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...Another warm day in store with southerly winds. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees, but should fall back to around 70 along the coast. Tonight, fog is likely to return. The NAM has been the most pessimistic, but has been right, so will lean heavily again on it. Another dense fog advisory is possible, however it might not have as much coverage as this morning. Wednesday, continued southerly flow, a bit more southwest. We should break out by mid morning, however sea fog could persist at the Myrtles. Extended Outlook...VFR. Morning IFR/BR possible Tuesday-Thu. Sea fog possible through Thu but confidence is low. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1206 PM Tuesday...Marine `fog advisory` cancelled, as local visibilities have improved. Light fog and mist, patchy in nature, may still be expected however, this afternoon through tonight. Winds and seas remain welcoming, keeping in mind local water temperatures are still in the upper 50s. As of 923 AM Tuesday...Marine fog advisory may need extending but will monitor obs through late morning to guide decision. As of 3 AM Tuesday...A Dense Fog Advisory will remain in effect until noon today. Warm and moist southerly winds around Bermuda High will flow over the cool shelf waters producing ideal conditions for sea fog through this morning. Expect patchy sea fog through the afternoon and may end up with another advisory for tonight. Winds will be generally be light, less than 10 kt with only a slight spike in the afternoon due to development of sea breeze. This will maintain seas 2 to 3 ft across the waters. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will bring benign winds and seas. Unseasonably warm and humid air will continue across the waters and thus the risk for sea fog will continue. Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s while water temps will be in the mid 50s and this will be marginally conducive for sea fog to remain in place. The wind direction will continue to be south which will not maximize residence time over the cool shelf waters. Thus, will keep the coverage of sea fog patchy at this time. Mariners should still expect that at least some of the fog will be dense with visibility 1 nm or less. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the period, although at the height of the seabreeze circulation each afternoon, wind speeds across the near shore waters could briefly reach 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with 4 ft seas mixing in late Thu and Thu night. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow through the period. Weak backdoor front will try to drop in from the north Fri, but appears the boundary will stall just S of the NC/VA border. Gradient will be on the weak side with winds 5 to 10 kt Fri. High strengthens a bit for the weekend with gradient becoming a little more defined as inland areas warm up. Southwest flow on Sat will be closer to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft Fri build to 3 to 4 ft Sat as winds become southwest and increase in speed.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL

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