Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271941 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 241 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY... MOVING OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE WAY OF SCT TO BKN STATOCU AROUND 4 TO 5KFT TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PCP BUT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH RISING UP NEAR A HALF INCH AS VORT MAX RIDES THROUGH THIS AFTN AND THEN BACK DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK UP AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN DEEP COLD AND DRY FLOW ON BACK END OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAA WILL OFFSET FULL SUNSHINE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BASICALLY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON. DEEP DRY AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IN DEEP NW TO N FLOW ON THE BACK END OF UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. STRONG CAA THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A DROP IN TEMPS WITH READINGS DOWN NEAR FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BELOW 30 INLAND BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE W...IT WILL BRING A COLD START TO THE PERIOD. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN MINUS 4 AND MINUS 7 DEG C. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ON FRI. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SQUELCH CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT A SUNNY DAY FROM BEGINNING TO END. TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR IN PLACE... PERHAPS TOUCHING 50 IN A FEW SPOTS DOWN AROUND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE BRIEF AND LATE IN ARRIVING. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS WILL BE VIRTUALLY CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT... EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS COLUMN REMAINS VERY DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. A FEW LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY MODIFY. HIGHS ON SAT WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 40S MORE COMMON AS YOU PROGRESS TO THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO MODESTLY RECOVER TO AROUND A HALF AN INCH...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHOW A BROAD AND SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT SIGNAL FOR A RIDGE MONDAY AS A DEEP AND COLD SHORTWAVE...WHAT IS AN EXTENSION OF THE POLAR VORTEX...THE LOWEST HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ROTATE ACROSS CANADA. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REACHES OUR AREA IN A MUCH MODIFIED STATE AFTER DROPPING VERY SOUTH IN A BLUE NORTHER IN TEXAS. BY TUESDAY WHEN THE NEW AIRMASS ARRIVES IT WILL ONLY BUMP DOWN TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE WARMER 70S...COURTESY OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY PREVENTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. NO POPS ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH AN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNSET. THE IMPACT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A STRATO-CUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET MAINLY AT KLBT AND KFLO. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND MORE OF AN ISSUE. THEY WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUST OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME MORNING FOG ON MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 IN OUTER WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SCA OUT UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO KICK UP WINDS WITH DEEP NW WINDS DEVELOPING. THE STRONG CAA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A WELL MIXED GUSTY MARINE LAYER. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE BUT EXPECT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS OF LOCAL MARINE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND FROM W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN GRADUALLY ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO WANE A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WITH STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN STRONGER WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRI AND BE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST FRI MORNING...SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST TIL AROUND SUNRISE FRI WITH SEAS NEAR 5-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. N WINDS FRI MORNING WILL BE 15 TO AROUND 20 KT. N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT FRI AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN FURTHER FRI NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING SHOULD SETTLE ON SW SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT FRI AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT FRI NIGHT BEFORE STABILIZING IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS...TEMPERATURES WONT BE TO SHABBY EITHER. ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF BASICALLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET. THERE MAY BE A DECENT SEA BREEZE MONDAY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO THE LOWER 70S WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A MORE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET WITH A SMATTERING OF SIX FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DRH

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