Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FXUS62 KILM 261949
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
349 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures
for today. Rain chances will return with the next cold front
Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind
the cold front Friday with a warming trend through the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A large amplitude trough will be progressing towards the area
through tonight. A bit of shortwave energy looks to move through
aloft around midnight tonight along with a surface warm front. This
will kick off the increasing rain chances through the period, albeit
with spotty shower coverage and measurable rainfall totals sticking
primarily inland. PWATs by Wed morning will be 1-1.5" becoming 1.5-
2" through the afternoon. Rain chances will generally increase from
west to east as conditions become more favorable. Some hi res
guidance is suggesting we could see a lull in activity during Wed
AM, which could lead to some renewed instability later in the
afternoon. Forcing really starts to ramp up towards the end of the
period as another shortwave moves overhead. Kept thunder chances low
but not nonexistent, particularly for later in the day Wed. Rainfall
totals for this time period are looking to be near 1" inland and a
third of an inch near the coast.
Lows tonight in the mid-upper 50s, some spots near 60, for NE SC.
Low-mid 50s for SE NC. Highs Wed in the lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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All elements remain in place for a significant rain
event for late Wednesday into the day Thursday. The elements are as
follows, a stalled front in the area north to south, higher
precipitable water values for this time of year, and deep coupled at
times upward motion. A good part of the guidance has been somewhat
consistent on this scenario for days. The heavy rain should occur
between 06 and 12 UTC Thursday and a bit more focused along the
coast. Storm total qpf amounts...should finalize between 2-3 inches.
Although at first glance these amounts are not overwhelming heavier
rainfall along the coast a few days ago and the fact the more
concentrated activity will be a few hours in and around morning rush
hour may be problematic. A Flash Flood Watch will be considered with
the overnight shift. Friday should see clear skies and slightly
cooler.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Not a lot of activity with the extended forecast as the
mid level pattern will be westerly with an eventual transition to
subtle ridging. It takes a long lens to see the next chance of rain
almost at the end of the period from a system approaching from the
west. As would be expected with dry conditions and moreso a ridge
building temperatures rise above climatology in time.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the first 6hrs of the 18Z TAF period. Main
concern will be possibility for MVFR/IFR stratus development
this evening, particularly at coastal terminals. Low stratus
looks to develop to our north with expansion into the area
possible around 00Z, have restrictions scattered at this time.
Higher confidence on MVFR filling in later tonight ahead of
incoming rain. Current thoughts are around 06Z for inland
terminals and 08Z for coastal terminals. Could see IFR
VSBYs/CIGs towards the end of the period with increasing
showers.
Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely Wednesday into
Thursday with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out late
Thursday night and high pressure returns throughout the weekend,
allowing for widespread VFR.
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.MARINE...
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Through Wednesday...Seas primarily 3-5 ft with E to SE flow 10-15
kts through the period. Rain and thunder chances will start to
increase Wed AM, particularly during the afternoon.
Wednesday Night through Sunday... Small craft advisory
conditions are possible later Thursday in the wake of a system
moving off to the northeast. By Friday a west to southwest flow
will develop and more or less be in place through the weekend.
The flow may increase sufficiently to warrant another headline
later Saturday. Significant seas will be driven by the local
winds for the most part and 4-6 feet or so is possible with the
headlines and 2-4 feet otherwise.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
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SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...SHK/LEW