Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261949 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 349 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for today. Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind the cold front Friday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A large amplitude trough will be progressing towards the area through tonight. A bit of shortwave energy looks to move through aloft around midnight tonight along with a surface warm front. This will kick off the increasing rain chances through the period, albeit with spotty shower coverage and measurable rainfall totals sticking primarily inland. PWATs by Wed morning will be 1-1.5" becoming 1.5- 2" through the afternoon. Rain chances will generally increase from west to east as conditions become more favorable. Some hi res guidance is suggesting we could see a lull in activity during Wed AM, which could lead to some renewed instability later in the afternoon. Forcing really starts to ramp up towards the end of the period as another shortwave moves overhead. Kept thunder chances low but not nonexistent, particularly for later in the day Wed. Rainfall totals for this time period are looking to be near 1" inland and a third of an inch near the coast. Lows tonight in the mid-upper 50s, some spots near 60, for NE SC. Low-mid 50s for SE NC. Highs Wed in the lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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All elements remain in place for a significant rain event for late Wednesday into the day Thursday. The elements are as follows, a stalled front in the area north to south, higher precipitable water values for this time of year, and deep coupled at times upward motion. A good part of the guidance has been somewhat consistent on this scenario for days. The heavy rain should occur between 06 and 12 UTC Thursday and a bit more focused along the coast. Storm total qpf amounts...should finalize between 2-3 inches. Although at first glance these amounts are not overwhelming heavier rainfall along the coast a few days ago and the fact the more concentrated activity will be a few hours in and around morning rush hour may be problematic. A Flash Flood Watch will be considered with the overnight shift. Friday should see clear skies and slightly cooler.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Not a lot of activity with the extended forecast as the mid level pattern will be westerly with an eventual transition to subtle ridging. It takes a long lens to see the next chance of rain almost at the end of the period from a system approaching from the west. As would be expected with dry conditions and moreso a ridge building temperatures rise above climatology in time.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR expected through the first 6hrs of the 18Z TAF period. Main concern will be possibility for MVFR/IFR stratus development this evening, particularly at coastal terminals. Low stratus looks to develop to our north with expansion into the area possible around 00Z, have restrictions scattered at this time. Higher confidence on MVFR filling in later tonight ahead of incoming rain. Current thoughts are around 06Z for inland terminals and 08Z for coastal terminals. Could see IFR VSBYs/CIGs towards the end of the period with increasing showers. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions likely Wednesday into Thursday with increasing rain chances. Forecast dries out late Thursday night and high pressure returns throughout the weekend, allowing for widespread VFR. && .MARINE...
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Through Wednesday...Seas primarily 3-5 ft with E to SE flow 10-15 kts through the period. Rain and thunder chances will start to increase Wed AM, particularly during the afternoon. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Small craft advisory conditions are possible later Thursday in the wake of a system moving off to the northeast. By Friday a west to southwest flow will develop and more or less be in place through the weekend. The flow may increase sufficiently to warrant another headline later Saturday. Significant seas will be driven by the local winds for the most part and 4-6 feet or so is possible with the headlines and 2-4 feet otherwise.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...LEW MARINE...SHK/LEW

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