Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251944 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 344 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through much of the weekend into early next week. At the surface there will be a light onshore flow. A tropical disturbance in the Bahamas will cross Florida over the weekend and may need to be watched for a turn up the East Coast heading into the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Diurnal cumulus field will once again dissipate quickly with the loss of heating later this afternoon into the evening. As opposed to last evening/night there is no real low level surge of moisture down the coast nor is there a substantial amount of low level convergence. This should prevent any precip along the coast and even offshore. There is likely to be a weak landbreeze but the presence of strong mid level subsidence and the lack of very moist low levels should all but prevent showers along the boundary. Temperatures overnight will be near to slightly above climo with lows in most areas around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid level ridge overhead at the start of the period will continue drifting northeast into the weekend while at the surface weak high pressure continues to extend in from the northeast. Subsidence under the ridge should keep the region free of any deep convection once again on Fri though the inversion will be weakening and cannot rule out an isolated short duration shower. Do not think coverage warrants any mention at this point as duration would be very brief with coverage less than 10%. Weakening northeast flow coupled with increasing 850 temps will push highs into the low to mid 90s Fri while lows Fri night will be in the low to mid 70s. Further weakening of mid level subsidence Sat as the high shifts north should allow for development of deeper afternoon convection, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. Mid- level lapse rates remain fairly weak so coverage should remain limited with any storms that develop on the weak side. High temperatures Sat will be similar to Fri but lows will end up a little warmer due to lingering debris cloud as well as increased low level moisture.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Surface high pressure will continue to extend down from center over the northern Atlantic as it weakens through early next week. All models align mid to upper ridge center over Mid Atlantic states with local area remaining at the base in a deeper easterly flow. Expect mainly sea breeze front and localized shwrs initially. A tropical wave will be moving west with NAM and ECMWF showing a low center over southern FL Sunday morning with a trough extending n-nw from center up into the Atlantic waters off the southeast coast. The GFS is in a similar position in the vicinity of southern FL but remains weaker with just a trough/wave like feature. The 12z ECMWF has trended weaker than previous runs. Overall expect this tropical wave/system to track around atlantic high if weaker but if it strengthens, it should take on more of a westward track if ridge holds on to the north. Latest trends track it up the west coast of FL reaching over FL/GA border by Wed eve. Either way, this system will help to tighten the gradient as it moves northward and this will increase the easterly fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. This will combine with weakening ridge aloft to produce greater chc of shwrs. The GFS keeps it weaker and farther east with greater effects aligned closer to the coast, but expect increasing clouds and chc of showers through mid week next week. Should see better conditions as you move farther inland across the Carolinas with current forecast, but this far out, the forecast is likely to change. For now will continue on current forecast with increasing clouds through Mon/Tues and best chc of more widespread shwrs/tstms on Wed/Thurs. With current model forecast may lead to greatest convection from tropical wave/low over coastal waters and decreasing chc as you move toward inland Carolinas. The mid to upper ridge will maintain warm temps initially until it shifts north and weakens leaving near normal temps during the day. Overnight lows may stay a bit higher in a moist on shore flow.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...Other than possible early morning MVFR fog for LBT and FLO, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue modest winds at the terminals, becoming light and variable or calm overnight. Wind directions today may be variable at times for the inland terminals with high pressure directly overhead, but the coastal terminals will likely experience a weak sea-breeze related south- easterly flow through the afternoon hours. Scattered to occasionally broken fair weather CU with bases from 4 to 6 kft will persist through the afternoon hours, fading this evening with only patchy light cirrus remaining. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for MVFR due to areas of haze or fog early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Northeast to east flow continues overnight with the high to the north being the main surface feature. Gradient remains limited with wind speeds on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Weak gradient in place Fri and Sat will result in wind field being driven by local effects. In the evening and overnight winds will be out of the east-northeast with speeds 10 kt or less. Diurnal heating will bring about development of increased onshore flow as the sea breeze develops. Onshore winds will be on the high end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft. LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Weak sfc high pressure extending into waters from the distance north to northeast will maintain easterly winds through the period....mainly between 10 and 15 kts. Expect winds to back slightly to a more NE direction and spike up in the aftn due to sea breeze and veer slightly to the SE at night due to land breeze. This easterly push should produce most seas between 3 and 4 ft through much of the period. WNA model continues to show the forerunners from Gaston, a longer period up to 11 sec E-SE swell initially and then period reaching up to 15 to 16 seconds Sun evening into early Mon. These swells are dependent on the exact track and strength of Gaston moving in the distant Atlantic waters.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC/III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK

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