Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300645 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 245 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PASSING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AIR AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE DIVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER UPDATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS PRETTY WEAK WITH CORES ONLY UP TO AROUND 12 KFT. THE FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT PRESENT RATE SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SHORTLY. EXPECT FRONT WILL BE THROUGH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO GO WITH MINIMAL CHANGES THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLT...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. PREFER THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SLOW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES FARTHER FROM THE MID LEVEL COLD PUSH IT IS STILL ABOUT 3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE THE 12Z NAM THINKS IT SHOULD BE. FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW LOWS STILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS/MIXING POST FRONT AND THE OVERALL LACKADAISICAL NATURAL OF THE COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD FROPA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MESHES WELL WITH 12Z NAM HINTING AT MORE OF A BROKEN LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIFT AFFORDED BY THE FRONT AND THE TRAILING COLD AIR MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TAP INTO WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT IN NAMBFR SOUNDINGS AROUND 850 MB. DO NOT THINK QPF WILL BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ISOLATED QUARTER INCH AT MOST...BUT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP BUT SHIFTED DISTRIBUTION AROUND A BIT...HAVE HIGHEST POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC WITH LOWEST ACROSS COASTAL SC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MORE INDICATIVE OF LATE OCTOBER...MARKED BY POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM NNE-NE AT MODERATE STRENGTH IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN 10-13 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. DAYBREAK THURSDAY MOST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE SO LOW POP PERIOD OVERALL...BUT ANOTHER AND MORE POWERFUL IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PRIOR TO VERY STRONG COOLING. RH ANALYSIS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOWS STRATO-CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT PRESSURE ANALYSIS AND VSBL IMAGERY AS PLENTIFUL CLOUDS ARE IN FACT LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR WILL COME IN FORCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND DEEP TROUGH TO PRODUCE EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS AS IT RIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHTS DROP BELOW 540 DEM BY SAT AFTN AS A STRONG VORT LOBE RIDES THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY...THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON SAT AFTN INTO EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST SAT AFTN...DEEP VERY COOL AND STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP OFF SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY SAT AFTN. WITH CLOUDS AROUND AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR...TEMPS ON SAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THROUGH THE 50S...BY FAR THE COLDER AIR OF THE SEASON. DEEP CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN STRONG N-NW WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER SAT AFTN AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REACH 35 TO 40 MPH. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW 40 SAT NIGHT IN CONTINUED CAA AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RETURN INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY SUN AFTN AND DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY END UP BELOW 30 DEGREES F BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY AS COLUMN DRIES OUT FURTHER. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD AND RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALOFT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER REACHING BACK UP ABOVE 580 DEM BY MON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TOWARD SEASONAL VALUES...UP INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 70 ON TUES. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE SUN NIGHT IN MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH SOME PATCHY FROST...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY THROUGH TUES. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS ALONG WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR POSSIBLY MVFR VSBY FROM -SHRA ALONG AND JUST AFTER FROPA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ALONG AND LONG AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PROBLEM CHILD WELL INTO THE DAYTIME THU HRS. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WILL RUN AOA 4K FT...WITH SOME DRYING OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS RESULTING IN THESE CEILINGS BECOMING SCATTERED. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS DROPPING TO AOB 6 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR PCPN SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. VFR ON MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST- NORTHWEST BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED AT FIRST. INTI ALLY THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN AHEAD OF IT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT. LATE IN THE PERIOD COLDER AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AROUND DAY BREAK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE THEIR STEADY RISE...GOING FROM 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NNE-NE WINDS OF MODERATE STRENGTH DOMINATE THIS TIME PERIOD IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY. SEA HEIGHTS MAINLY 3-4 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT OUTER WATERS...COMPRISED OF 1-1.5 FT SE WAVES EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND MODERATE NE CHOP AND WIND-SEAS. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS ON SAT WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND AND A DEEP STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT VERY GUSTY NW WINDS ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING FROM SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI RAPIDLY UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 FT BY SAT AFTN. EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONG OFF SHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE MUCH LOWER WITH GREATEST SEAS OUT BEYOND 15 NM. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO THE NE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS HOLDING ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WARMER WATERS KEEPING A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...BUT OVERALL N-NE WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MON MORNING. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUN MORNING AND WILL BE BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUN NIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...REK/III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH

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