Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 060554 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 154 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...ATYPICAL EARLY MAY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H LOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS SEEN EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID KNOCK OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A LITTLE BIT AS MANY AREAS HAVE COOLED OFF A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CAPE HATTERAS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PAST BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT AND LAPSE RATES WILL STILL REMAIN STEEP. DO NOT EXPECT SAME ATMOSPHERE AS THURSDAY AS SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND BEST LIFT SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF WITH IT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT LOW REMAINS CLOSE. THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI BUT WILL WARM TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SE RIDGING DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY...AND WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION...BLOSSOMING OF UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS. GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION (OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY) WHILE THE ECM/CMC SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AND WILL SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTH AND KEEP ANY POP CONFINED OUT OF THE CWA. THEREAFTER...HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 15C AS THICKNESSES RISE AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT MON-THU WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST. AS THIS HEAT INCREASES...HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW...AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE LONG TERM SO NATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL MAINTAIN BARELY MENTIONABLE POP. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...THEN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPINNING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OF NC... IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEARLY DUE N OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NC-VA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK...AND OVER THE DELMARVA BY SUNSET...AND THEN REMAINING IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN MVFR STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDINESS DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. THESE IMPULSES COMBINED WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION LATER TODAY WILL IGNITE CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FIRE BY MIDDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVE HOURS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1130 PM THURSDAY...EXPIRED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AN HOUR EARLY. THE WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASING. LOWERED WIND SPEEDS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY HAS DROPPED SEAS BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS...HENCE THE SCEC CANCELLATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY WEAK SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LIMITED. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE W-SW SAT NIGHT...REMAINING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS GREATEST SEAS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AND ITS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY WHEN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED WITH LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM FORMED THROUGH A SOUTHERLY 4-5 SEC WAVE AND A SE 8-9 SEC WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST THROUGHOUT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH/RJD

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