-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
804
FXUS62 KILM 012359
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Forecast dries out and temperatures warm slightly Thursday and
Friday. A frontal boundary and disturbance aloft will bring
scattered showers and storms to the area throughout the weekend,
with some drying to follow late Sunday into Monday, but another
upper disturbance should increase shower activity again late
Monday into Tuesday before hot and dry weather arrives for
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sea breeze convection was ongoing as of this writing, driven by
a relatively moist, unstable, and uncapped environment with
1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE analyzed as of 18Z, highest in the Cape
Fear region. Outflow from these showers and isolated storms
will act to stabilize the nearshore environment and help push
the sea breeze further inland, bringing the shower and storm
risk gradually away from the coast through the remainder of this
afternoon. Near I-95, a surface trough pushing southeastward
has provided enough convergence to yield spotty showers along
it, although these have remained shallow and relatively short-
lived as they drift southeastward.

This evening and tonight, nocturnal cooling will stabilize the
remainder of the area not affected by convection. With virtually
no cool/dry advection, along with weak or calm winds and mainly
clear skies, signals are pointing towards widespread fog
development, particularly with the extra soil moisture provided
by pop-up convection this afternoon nearer to the coast. Further
inland, fog/mist remains likely, but how dense it can become is
more uncertain as somewhat drier air will be nearby, especially
near/west of I-95. Morning lows on Thursday will be limited by
dewpoints and subsequent fog and/or low cloud development, with
low 60s expected.

On Thursday, after morning fog/mist/low clouds burn off by mid-
morning, mid-level ridging will support a very warm day with
highs reaching the mid-upper 80s inland and upper 70s to low
80s near the coast. Scattered fair-weather cumulus are expected
to develop as well, making for a summerlike day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid to upper ridge running up the Southeast coast will shift
slowly eastward through Fri night maintaining an unseasonably
warm and dry forecast with plenty of subsidence through most
of this period. Highs each day in the mid 80s inland, but
closer to 80 right near the coast with plenty of sunshine.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Ridge moves far enough east with a shortwave and front
approaching Fri night. Any pcp should hold out until after
daybreak on Sat, but model soundings do show mid to high
clouds increasing through Fri night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Moisture will increase through the atmosphere ahead of a
shortwave and front into Saturday. Soundings show mid to upper
level moisture working its way down through the column into
Sat aftn as instability increases with enhanced lift due to
shortwave riding through. With a southerly flow backing to the
southeast with sea breeze Sat aftn, should see a good push
inland and expect increased convergence inland closer to the
front and as sea breeze pushes inland with best chc of pcp in
the I-95 corridor Sat aftn. Coast may remain fairly dry Sat with
some mid to high clouds or cu present and increase in pcp
chances by Sun morning before shortwave reaches off the coast
and weak ridging builds in. The actual front gets muddled but
chc of shwrs/thunderstorms increases again late Mon into Tues as
another shortwave moves through. The coast may see there best
shot of rain at this time. A deeper westerly downslope flow
develops for Wed with a hot day on tap as ridge builds up the
Southeast coast and H5 heights increase up to 583 dm. Should see
80s through much of the extended period tampered by clouds and
shwrs but by Wed, expect some 90s if timing holds that far out
in time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to prevail early this evening. Some
convective debris mid and high level clouds should dissipate
this evening. Otherwise, previous fcst emphasizing the threat
for MVFR/IFR/LIFR from fog and VVs will continue to be
advertised, mainly in the time frame between 05Z and 13Z. The
sfc pg will remain relaxed and once the sea breeze dissipates,
calm winds will become the mainstay across most if not all
terminals. No appreciable advection of any sorts along with
plenty of low level moisture and calm winds, all able to fuel
the areas to widespread fog development. Days heating and weak
winds kicking up should scour out the fog between 13Z and 14z.
Otherwise, looking at VFR for the remaining of the TAF Issuance
period with a sct/bkn Cu field by midday thru the aftn. Onshore
flow and sea breeze should push the cu field away from the
coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR through the period outside of
early morning mist/low cigs from Friday through Sunday. Threat
for flight restrictions from convection late Sat thru Mon due to
a stalled front across the central Carolinas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Thursday... An increasingly ill-defined pressure
pattern will keep winds at or below 10 kts through the period
while the direction swings from southerly this evening to light
and variable tonight, then light easterly tomorrow morning and
settling on southeasterly during Thursday afternoon. South to
southeast wind waves in the 1-2 ft range will dominate the wave
spectrum with a weak easterly swell of around 1 ft at 10 seconds
still holding on.

Thursday night through Monday...A southerly return flow around
5 to 10 kts basically holds into early next week, backing to a
more SE direction in the aftn sea breeze each day. A longer
period easterly swell will mix in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/ABW