Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260207 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1007 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for Tuesday. Rain chances will return with the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Dry high pressure then builds in behind the cold front Friday with a warming trend through the weekend. && .UPDATE...
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No significant changes with the 10 PM EDT update.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface pressure pattern has changed little today and basically remains in place through tonight thus conditions will be quite similar. However with just a touch of airmass modification...high cloudiness and some wind at the surface (once again) temperatures should check in a touch higher. This should keep the agriculture community somewhat safe with regards to frost and certainly freeze issues. Further warming should take place Tuesday as the pattern begins transition to more of a return flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main focus this period is on approaching mid-level energy and developing sfc low pressure bringing high chances for rain. Categorical PoPs have been introduced based on the very high confidence for rain, with moderate to heavy rain possible as well - forecasting totals of 1-3 inches, with the heaviest rain expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning during the time of greatest dynamics and moisture flux into the area. Some model discrepancy then over when the rain ends, but in general should see a drying trend from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening. Instability looks meager overall, but still can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder especially near the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry weather expected for the duration of the long term period with broad sfc high pressure over the SE states. This in tandem with a slight rise in low-level thickness values will lead to increasing temps late this week into the weekend...up to the mid 70s Saturday then upr 70s Sunday, with W/SW flow the norm under mostly sunny/clear skies. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. Onshore flow near the coast this morning could lead to a brief period of low clouds. If clouds develop, MVFR fuel alternate restrictions would be short-lived. NE flow gradually shifts to onshore flow throughout the day. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR through the period. Flight restrictions possible Wednesday into Thursday with increasing rain chances. High pressure returns for the weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Surface pressure pattern remains in place this afternoon and overnight with the northeast flow. Winds and seas will very gradually decrease so the small craft advisory remains in place. A slow transition to a return/onshore flow offers up lower winds and seas Tuesday. Tuesday Night through Saturday...A break in the SCA conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday night with 10-15 kt SE flow over the coastal waters with a weak ridge of high pressure well offshore. Sfc low pressure will then develop immediately over the area on Thursday, with SCA conditions in winds likely to follow late Thursday into Thursday night in the NW flow following the sfc low pushing off to the east. Somewhat improving marine conditions expected towards the end of the week as sfc high pressure builds over the SE states. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/SHK

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