Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 292233 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH...MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE LAST FRIDAY EVENING OF MAY 2015 WILL END ON A FINE AND FAIR NOTE...AS DIURNAL CUMULUS VAPORIZES INTO THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AS ASCENDING PARCEL MOTION SPUTTERS OUT TO INCREASED STRATIFICATION. MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS INLAND EARLY INTO SATURDAY. EFFICIENT HEAT ESCAPE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO GROUND-BASED NEAR SATURATION INTO PRE-DAWN SATURDAY AND POCKETS OF FOG AND MIST-BANKS MAY UNFOLD. THIS APT TO BE FAVORED INLAND AWAY FROM THE STIRRING OF SE ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE SEA. MINIMUMS A FEW NOTCHES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MIDDLE 60S ACROSS A LARGE POTION OF THE INTERIOR...WITH UPPER 60S AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA... PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST... ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY. THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED AND PERSISTENT RECENTLY ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE SWELL PORTION OF THE SPECTRAL CHARACTER. BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TIED TO LONGER PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE CHOP. SEAS COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 3-4 FEET AROUND EVERY 9 SECONDS. INSHORE NEAR THE MYRTLES BOTTOM FRICTION MAY EAT ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TO DAMPEN SWELL TO 2 FEET...BUT 3 FOOT BREAKERS STILL GOOD BET IN OCCASIONAL PHASES THERE. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND LOCAL INSHORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARING 80 DEGREES. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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