Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 250708 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 200 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. AS THIS HIGH PASSES S OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE...WE WILL GET INTO A BRIEF AND WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE 50S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE BEACHES SHOULD BE COOLEST AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CLIPPER LOW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN IS WEAK AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO RECOVER FROM LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH THIS MORNING TO SLIGHTLY OVER A HALF INCH OVERNIGHT. THE COLUMN DOES MAKE A VALIANT EFFORT TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE LIFT...WHILE SHORT-LIVED IS IMPRESSIVE... MAXIMIZING AROUND 10-15Z OR SO. FORECAST WILL CALL FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE...THEN CLOUDING UP LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE TOWARD MON MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE AND WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH SUNRISE MON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING MON THROUGHOUT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT LIQUID RAIN. WE APPLIED THE WINTER TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGY TO CONFIRM INITIAL FINDINGS AND STILL COULD NOT FIND ANY REASON TO FORECAST ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THE SUBCLOUD LAYER ABOVE FREEZING...BELOW ABOUT 5-6 KFT. LOWS TONIGHT...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME MID 30S FROM ABOUT LBT TO BURGAW NORTHWARD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A MULTI-CENTERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THESE THREE LOWS WILL CONGEAL INTO ONE BY EVENING WELL OFFSHORE EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM BEREFT OF BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THEREFORE NOT A BIG RAINMAKER. THE SYSTEM ALOFT IS QUITE STRONG AND THE MAIN VORT CUTS TO OUR SOUTH SO ITS TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SPRINKLES IN ADDITION TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST COLD AND DRY ADVECTION LOCALLY WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO TUESDAY AT WHICH TIME 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT ABOUT -5C. MONDAY WILL THUS BE SEASONABLE WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE CHILLY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION ENDS. HOWEVER SHALLOW MIXING OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STUCK IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOME ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR WARRANTED BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. CHILLY AIR RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DO CLEAR SKIES.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 8 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST INLAND... AND MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KT. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CIGS MON. VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE-THU. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FROM S TO N THROUGH 10 AM. A MUCH SLACKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE DIVES SE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. HOWEVER...FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL TICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BELOW 6 FT BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND BY 10 AM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WITH MANY CENTERS CROSSES THE AREA EARLY AND CONGEAL WELL OFF THE COAST. ANY ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND SEAS IF THEY OCCUR WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. THIS SYSTEM REALLY STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BUT ACCORDING TO WNA WAVE PLOTS SHOW THAT OUTER BANKS PREVENTS MUCH BACKSWELL LOCALLY SO WIND AND SEAS BOTH EASING ON TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD MAKING FOR VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES. LIGHT WINDS VEER ALL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST AND A CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM UPSTREAM. MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL BRING A MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY CALL FOR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THE COLD SURGE THAT HITS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGS PERHAPS AN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND FIELD BUT FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE A SHORT DURATION.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL/RJD

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