Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251903 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving storm system will continue to lift northeast farther away from the area through mid week as weak high pressure eases in from the Atlantic. Look for improving conditions, with a warming and drying trend. A weak cold front will nearly dissipate as it moves across the area Thursday night. Bermuda high pressure will dominate the weather Friday through the weekend with early summer-like conditions. A few locations away from the coast, may break the 90 degree mark this weekend. Another cold front will move through Monday with high pressure returning on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Upper low tracking north over the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds of Eastern North Carolina will reach just offshore of New England Wednesday afternoon. This will mark a transition in the low level wind flow as the system releases its grip locally, allowing SFC-H8 winds to become SW by the late afternoon Wednesday. Concurrently, mid-level drying will continue to press down to 6-7 KFT on Wednesday, shutting down precipitation chances, although diurnal cumulus appears to be a good bet. As late spring thickness values snap back in place in wake of the upper cold pool, look for a mammoth warm up Wednesday into the upper 70s to lower 80s across NE SC and SE NC away from the beaches. Consequently, in terms of sensible weather, Wednesday will bring a return to an early summer- like feel to the area and this will trend beyond Wednesday. Partial clearing overnight and a flattening pressure gradient from west to east will allow for patches and banks of fog and mist to develop after midnight favored inland, and aided by still wet ground. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Low pressure system will be heading farther off to the northeast starting off near the Long Island Coast Wed eve. A SW to S return flow will develop between high pressure easing in from the Atlantic and a cold front approaching the Carolinas by Thurs. Overall, there will be weak ridging aloft with plenty of dry air through the mid levels above h7 with moisture confined to the sfc and very low level of the atmosphere. This moisture rich air near the surface will maintain dewpoint temps in the 60s and above normal temps. A lighter southerly breeze will increase as the gradient tightens with the approach of a cold front on Thurs. Moisture will pool ahead of the front with pcp water values reaching up to 1.75 inches by midnight Thurs night, but with loss of heating and upper level support displaced well west and northwest of area, do not expect much forcing other than convergence along the front to produce some shwrs and possibly an iso tstm Thurs night. Expect some localized diurnal cu to develop Thurs aftn mainly associated with sea breeze front but should be limited in growth due to subsidence and dry air aloft. Therefore expect main shwr activity to come Thurs night as front weakens and nearly dissipates as it moves over the eastern Carolinas. Bermuda High begins to dominate again by Fri morning. Temps Wed night will be in the low to mid 60s leading to max temps into the mid 80s on Thurs. Continued WAA and increased cloud cover will maintain temps in the mid 60s to near 70 on Thurs night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Period begins with remains of weak front pushing off the coast under ridging aloft. Boundary lacks moisture by the time it reaches the area and the bulk of the dynamics shifts off to the north. Cannot rule out an isolated sea breeze shower in the wake of the front Fri afternoon but the lack of mid level moisture suggests coverage would be minimal at best. Surface and mid level ridging will be the dominant features through the weekend. The 5h ridge axis is just offshore and a slow but steady increase in moisture as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly opens up the possibility of sea breeze/diurnal convection, especially Sun afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be above to well above climo with potential for 90 degree readings inland. Next system winds up over the central CONUS early next week, lifting from the plains on Sun to the Great Lakes on Mon. Warm advection ahead of the front will maintain temps above climo through Mon. Cold front trailing the low moves into the area later Mon preceded by convection. Best dynamics pass well north of the area but there will be a narrow band of deeper moisture along with low level convergence and a strengthening low level jet. Also potential for some PVA depending on timing of any shortwave rotating around the base of the trough. Surface high and broad troughing aloft Tue contribute to deep westerly flow, drying the region out but with a cooler air mass building in temps will be slightly below climo as the period ends. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 18Z...MVFR cigs this afternoon further improving to MVFR/VFR conditions late this aftn thru tonight. As the upper low lifts NE, away from the area this afternoon and night, improving conditions across weather parameters will occur. Will still have to contend with light to moderate showers over SE NC until 00z-01z. Patchy fog late tonight mainly along and west of I-95. Wind directions will become w to nw throughout. Wind speeds will run 10-15 kt this afternoon and drop back to 5 kt or less during this evening and overnight. Extended outlook...Possible MVFR/IFR from fog early Wed morning. VFR expected from Wednesday through Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Sea heights still relatively large and in recovery mode from SE waves of 4-6 feet every 10 seconds over the 0- 20 NM waters, a bit smaller into the South Carolina shores. As a result a Small Craft Advisory remains posted the NC waters until 5 PM this afternoon at which point most significant waves within 20 NM should subside below 6 feet. Offshore winds of 15 KT with occasional gusts to 20 KT can be expected into evening before easing overnight to 10-15 KT. As a result the wind-wave portion of the spectrum will decreases choppiness into early Wednesday. A few marine showers are possible north of Cape Fear this evening but isolated. Expect slowly diminishing SE swell Wed but an increase in SW wind-waves later in the day as both the sea breeze and return synoptic wind flow gear up to moderate strength. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda High will build westward Wed night into Thurs as a cold front approaches the Carolinas from the west. Southerly winds in between these two systems will run about 10 to 15 kts Wed night into early Thurs with an increase as gradient tightens as cold front moves east through late Thurs. May see winds up to 15 to 20 kts out of the south, but the front weakens as it reaches the waters with Bermuda High dominating again by Fri morning. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SunDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...High pressure will be the dominant feature through the period with south to southwest flow in place. Speeds will be on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range early in the period but increase to a solid 15 kt Sun as gradient becomes a little more defined. Seas mostly 2 to 3 ft early in the period will experience an upward trend late in response to increasing southwest flow. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...III AVIATION...MJC

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