Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271730 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 130 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING SOME ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...IT/S HARD TO TOP THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH WARM TEMPS...LIGHT WIND...CLEAR SKIES...AND MANAGEABLE DEWPOINTS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN ESTABLISHED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL. CRISTOBAL IS FAR OFF THE NC/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CONTINUES TO DRIVE SWELLS TO OUR COASTLINE. THE SWELLS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE EVENING...AND LIKELY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REALLY THE ONLY INTERESTING NOTE WILL BE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN GUIDANCE AS THERE IS NO WIND SHIFT NOTED. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NINETY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...BASICALLY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MORE LOCALIZED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH PROVIDING THE CATALYST FOR POPS. WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A WEAKER TROUGH THE PAST DAY OR SO...WHAT WAS SHAPING UP TO BE A SOMEWHAT WET WEEKEND NOW LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO OVER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST. CRISTOBAL WILL NOT HAVE ANY AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS FROM FORMING. GENERALLY A NORTH WIND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED... MAINLY GROUND FOG. THURSDAY...VFR WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND DURING THE MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI AND SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...CRISTOBAL SWELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM. PLAN TO HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NC WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. STEEP WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AT INLET ENTRANCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE FALLING TIDE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRESIDE WITH THE HURRICANE FAR TO THE EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT TEN KNOTS GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I CANT SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL/SRP

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