Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 090742 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 342 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING HEAT ON WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS WELL UP IN THE 70S....THIS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER MUGGY START TO THE DAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER HOT ONE. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO LOW AND DID RATHER POORLY ON YESTERDAYS HIGHS AND THIS MORNINGS MINIMUMS. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE THE HIGHEST NUMBERS THAT GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE US FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL GIVE US HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE A BIT MORE MODERATE...RIGHT AROUND 90 OR SO. RECENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ALONG WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL BE KNOCKING ON OUR BACK DOOR BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DISRUPT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH PATTERN...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK IS SET TO FEATURE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SEASONABLE TEMPS...AS A COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN THE VICINITY. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY...AND THEN GET HUNG UP LOCALLY AS THE VORT ENERGY DRIVING IT HANGS WELL BACK WEST OF THE AREA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE UP ABOVE 2 INCHES THURSDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH SBCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE RFQ OF A 100KT UPPER JET...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTMS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY...THE SETUP REMAINS VERY SIMILAR...UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND SHEAR AXIS FINALLY SWINGS EAST...CAUSING SLOWLY DRYING MID-LEVELS ON W/NW FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT...AND NEVER REALLY CROSSES FULLY OFFSHORE...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER POP WARRANTED ACROSS EASTERN ZONES THAN ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-LEVELS OCCURS...AS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON FORECAST PROFILES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT REMAIN COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER STILL THANKS TO MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THICKNESSES. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S...BEFORE FALLING TO SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND WILL CREATE A DRYING TREND SAT/SUN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FROM THE SOUTH...IT BECOMES STRUNG OUT WEST-TO-EAST THANKS TO DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THE AREA...LEAVING TEMPS AROUND CLIMO NORMS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...KEEPING WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE AREA...AND THUS EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRY...TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE WKND. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIVING A COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND...EXPECTEDLY...INCREASING POP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...BUT LOWS WILL BE SEVERELY TEMPERED BY RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...REMAINING SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KTS INLAND...UP TO 15 KTS ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF INTO EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCE SHRA/TS/TEMPO MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BEST COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT LEAST WITH WINDS SW AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WELL INLAND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INLAND. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS CREATES A PINCHED GRADIENT THURSDAY...WITH SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS COMMON ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...WHILE DECREASING IN SPEED TO AROUND 10 KTS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS NEAR THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY ON THE STRONGER WINDS...REACHING 3-4 FT WITH A SW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. ON FRIDAY THESE WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE DEVELOPING. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WKND AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE RIDGES BACK TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE SW WINDS THIS CREATES WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS...THEY WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD TO 15-20 KTS LATE SUNDAY. AN INCREASING SE GROUND SWELL AND SW WIND WAVE WILL DRIVE SEAS UPWARD THROUGH THE WKND AS WELL...FROM 1-3 FT EARLY SATURDAY...TO 3-4 FT BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW

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