Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 131406 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MID-SPRING DAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH IS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW FLOODING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS EXPANDED OVERHEAD...FORCING SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON 12Z KCHS SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE ONLY PRESENT ABOVE 300MB...AND NOTED LOCALLY BY WIDESPREAD AIRCRAFT CONTRAILS PERSISTING OUTSIDE THE ILM WFO THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE SOARED ABOVE ANY OF THE FORECAST CURVES THUS FAR...AND HAVE BUMPED INHERITED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD 80+ EXPECTED TODAY...MID 70S AT THE BEACHES. HRRR ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AND HAVE CARRIED A TOKEN 5% POP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...EXPECT IT IS ONCE AGAIN OVERDOING PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NOTING HOW DRY SOUNDINGS ARE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO BECOME MODERATE AND WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY...BUT NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON A SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH FOG OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL DROP TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60 BY MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FURTHER OFF SHORE. AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY A DEEP S TO SW FLO WILL DEVELOP. WILL BASICALLY SEE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT AS WE TAP INTO BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES BY MON EVENING. THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER RH LEVELS CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS AND BELOW H50...BUT BY MON EVENING INTO TUES INCREASING WINDS WILL PROVIDE DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHC OF PCP MON NIGHT INTO TUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND WITH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT INTO TUES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SPEED CONVERGENCE GENERATING COASTAL SHOWERS FEEDING ON SHORE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE THROUGH TUESDAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY NOON ON TUES A LLJ INCREASES UP TO 45 KTS. LOOKS LIKE THE THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL COME THROUGH TUES AFTN INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED STRONGER DAMAGING WINDS. SPC INCLUDED CAROLINAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TUES WITH WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BUT MENTION OF TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND PCP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES...TEMPS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 80 WITH PLENTY OF WAA AHEAD OF FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM AROUND 14 C DOWN CLOSE TO 6C IN COOL NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY ON WED. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO OFFSET THIS CAA AND THEREFORE EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO OFFSET SOME OF THE CAA. THEREFORE DEPENDING ON QUICKLY WE CLEAR AND HOW MUCH SUN WE GET...COULD MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE WED AFTN TEMPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE DROP FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI WHILE THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH WARM FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME DECENT WEATHER THROUGH WED INTO THURS WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH CLOUDS AND PCP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BY FRI. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. OVERALL THINK GREATER CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP WILL ENTER INTO THE FORECAST BY LATE THURS THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BUT WARMING EACH DAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 12Z...PATCHES OF DENSE FOG INLAND WILL MIX OUT SOMETIME BETWEEN 13-14Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RUC HAS ABOUT 1000 CAPE BY MIDDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HRRR KICKS OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS BY 16Z...BUT THINK IT WILL BE SPRINKLE AT MOST. MORE THAN LIKELY JUST MODERATE CU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...PICKING UP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE BEST MIXING CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...VERY CALM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH FRYING PAN SHOALS ACTUALLY REPORTING 0 KTS OF WIND WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAK GRADIENT AND CALM CONDITIONS...AND ALTHOUGH S/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER TODAY...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 1-2 FT CURRENTLY WILL RISE TO 2-3 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SE GROUND SWELL AND SE WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH S-SE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS BY AFTN AND UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MON NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY MON EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TO INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH TUES. WNA SHOWS SEAS PEAKING AROUND 6 TO 8 FT TUES EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL LAST AS GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED IN WEDGE/COASTAL TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH WED INTO THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 TO 8 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE NE AND LIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY THURS WITH SEAS DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THURS...BUT REMAINING 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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