Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020630 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BLOWING OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAY BE JOINED LATE BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 7000 FEET AS A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 02Z/10 PM TEMPERATURES CAME IN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO AT ALL LOCATIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS... FAIRLY DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND CLUSTER MAINLY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FROM SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE..AND TEMPS BACK UP RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 80S. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHWR ACTIVITY AT BAY BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHWR IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER GEORGETOWN. A RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH W-SW FLOW AS EVIDENT BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GA NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTH WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE HATTERAS COAST. THIS REMAINED THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF AREA AND THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL STREAM MAINLY EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST REACHING INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA IN UPPER LEVEL S-SW WINDS. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY FORECAST. DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP AROUND 70 WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT FOG BUT IF ANY SHWRS DEVELOP OR IN PLACES WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DISCUSSION FROM 200 PM FOLLOWS... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WITH TROUGH LINGERING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST. OVERALL EXPECT A WEAK MAINLY OFF SHORE FLOW WITH ON SHORE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON FADING OUT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...SGL/REK

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